UPDATE: Significant Winter Storm To Effect The Region

Local Update...
   Significant Storm Developing; Winter Storm Warnings, And Advisories Issued For Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas!...

STORM ALERT DETAILS
     The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT continues the Winter Storm Watch for much of Vermont, and Northern New York, except the St. Lawrence Valley for the potential of 6+ inches of snow, and potential significant icing across South-Central Vermont. The National Weather Service in Albany, NY continues the Winter Storm Warning, for Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont for the potential of 4-12 inches of snow 1/2-1+ inch of Sleet, and freezing rain with ice accumulations of a 1/2-1 inches with locally higher amounts. JRWeather continues the Ice Storm Warning for Bennington, and Windham Counties for the potential of 1-3 inches of snow, and up to 1.00 inch of ice, with locally higher amounts across the southern portions of these counties. A Winter Storm Warning for the Rutland, and Windsor Counties for 3-6 inches of snow, and ice accumulations of a up to a half inch, with locally higher amounts. A Winter Storm Warning for the rest of Vermont, except the Northern, and Central Champlain Valley for 6 - 12 inches of snow. A Winter Weather Advisory for Northeastern New York, and the Northern, and Central Champlain Valley of Vermont, for 3-6 inches of snow.

STORM OVERVIEW
     Currently a low pressure system across the Southeast united states is drawing in significant amounts of sub-tropical moisture. Water vapor imagery shows the extreme amount of moisture being drawn up into the system, and the moisture being transported along the stalled out front, south of Southern New England. A couple interesting notes with this system is the upper level low back across Louisiana is producing very strong lift, and is turning the heavy rain, over to heavy snow. Infact Winter Storm Warnings, and Advisories are out for portions of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi!! Another note is a developing area of light snow is forming from Northern Ohio, across Northwestern Pennsylvania, across Western, and Central New York, and into Central/ Northern Vermont. This area of snow is expanding in areal coverage at this time. This will have to be monitored as this could be an unexpected start to the snow across our region. At this point there are no signs of this band of snow diminishing, and with significant sub-tropical moisture being ejected into this system, and its interaction with very cold air, I would not be surprised if this area of snow persists.

   (The water vapor image below shows the impressive amount of moisture already in this system, as you can see by the bright reds across the Gulf of Mexico, strong inflow of moisture continues into the storm, this is also where a dangerous squall line has formed, and this will move across Florida later on Thursday.)

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE!

MODEL DATA
     Models continue to diverge on the exact precipitation cut off point along the northwestern edge of the storm system, and how much cold air makes it in, and exactly how far south. On the below images these are forecasted snow totals for the Colchester, VT radar area. As you can see the 0Z run of the NAM model shows significantly less snow across Northern Vermont, and Northern New York, then the 0Z GFS, and the GFS shows not only more snow for Northern Vermont, and Northern New York, but the liquid equivalent totals are greater, resulting in greater accumulations of snow overall. Also the name shifts the heavy snow axis further south across Central, and Southern Vermont, while the GFS remains hold it pretty much in the same area as its 12Z run. The NAM though is usually a very good model, but the GFS has been very consistent, which makes it very difficult to forecast the accumulation totals. At this point though I am going to stick with my current totals. Although I have to admit, snowfall amounts may have to be increased across Northwestern Vermont, and Northern New York. I want to wait for one more model run, and see how things actually unfold with the development of the storm. I will make this call tomorrow morning, so please check back around 8AM for an update.

(This is the 0Z Model run of the NAM, and GFS showing forecasted snow totals. Note: The GFS image is a 120 hour total snow forecast, however the snow totals depicted on the map are from the above mentioned storm only.)



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JRWEATHER FORECAST
     Light Snow/ Flurries will develop across much of Vermont, and much of Northern New York, by late tomorrow afternoon. Across southern Vermont Snow will be more intense by late afternoon, and will begin to change over to sleet, and freezing rain. Between 4 and 8PM all of Vermont, and much of Northern New York should be seeing light to moderate snow. The snow will intensify overnight Thursday night and be heavy at times. Across Southern Vermont, sleet, and freezing rain will persist and be heavy at times through Thursday night. Across the entire area, precipitation will end from West to East throughout the day Friday. Please refer to below maps for precipitation totals for your area. Stay tuned!!

ALL IMAGES ON THIS PAGE CLICK TO ENLARGE!

     (Alerts, and Precipitation Total Maps have not changed since earlier.)