Significant Fire Threat Ongoing

     Just wanted to do one of my final posts for JRWeather, so the format is going to be very simple in this post, as all maps, and formats are being edited for the new Champlain Valley Weather blogsite. For those of you wishing to view Champlain Valley Weather, just click below to get to it. The URL is www.champlainvalley.blospot.com
     It is not yet open, but should be opening with in the next day or two, with the official forecast set to be issued Friday, April 17th, 2009.

Click here for Champlain Valley Weather

Fire Threat High Across The Entire Region...

     Although there is no red flag warning issued by the National Weather Service at this time, it is strongly recommended not to do any open burning. Criteria at this time is actually being met across the entire region, for a Red Flag Warning. Winds are a bit stronger then expected, and temperatures are a tad higher then forecast. This is resulting in continued very dry conditions with relative humidity's averaging in the 20-25% range with some isolated areas in the 10-15% range. This is extremely dry, and with conditions like this the past couple days, all fine fuels, such as brush, and grass are extremely dry, and vulnerable to fire. Winds at this time are meeting Red Flag Warning criteria with sustained speeds of 12-17MPH with gusts up to 25MPH. Some isolated gusts of up to 30MPH is possible into early this evening.
     If a fire were to develop it will rapidly get out of your control. It will only take a few seconds from the time you start the fire to getting out of control. The wind will easily sweep flames and embers to other dry areas. Once again it is strongly recommended not to participate in any outdoor burning. If you have any questions or wish to see if you can obtain a burning permit, contact your local fire warden, or fire officials, and they will make the choice. Stay tuned for any updates.

Red Flag Warning In Effect; JRWeather To Close April 17th

Red Flag Warning In Effect; No Outdoor Burning Allowed...

     PLEASE VIEW PREVIOUS POST AFTER VIEWING THIS POST, FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE CLOSING OF THE JRWEATHER BLOG. Thanks.

This discussion is very similiar to previous post.

DISCUSSION
     Dangerously dry, and windy conditions have resulted in the issuance of a Red Flag Warning from the National Weather Service in Burlington, VT. For nearly the entire state of Vermont (excluding Bennington, and Windham Counties), and the Champlain Valley of Northern New York.

     Part of the criteria for a Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag Warning for pre-greenup (late winter-early spring) is a quarter inch or less of precipitation in the previous 3 days. This has clearly been the case for our region, as the last widespread measurable precipitation was back on the 8th which was 5 days ago, but that was generally less then a quarter of an inch, except across far eastern/ northeastern Vermont, where over a half inch of rain was reported with isolated areas with over an inch. With that in mind I don't feel the Northeast Kingdom (NEK) is needed under the Red Flag Warning, as too much rain in that area, plus some snow still on the ground across that area will help eliminate the fire threat, regardless of any other factors.

     The next factor for the region (Minus NEK) is winds will be strong. Winds will be sustained in the 10-20MPH range, with gusts up to 35MPH, especially in the North-South oriented valleys, such as the Champlain Valley, and lower Connecticut River Valley. In addition relative humidities will be very low, ranging from 18-25% from around noontime, until 6PM. Once the sun sets, relative humidities will rise rapidly, eliminating the fire threat.

     All these factors combined will result in the potential for rapid, and erratic fire growth should fires develop. A Red Flag Warning have been issued so you should not be burning at all. If you decide to disobey your local communities burn policies, and the Red Flag Warning by burning, it could result in not only a devastating fire, but subsequent legal penalties as well. Remember to contact your local fire warden, or fire officials before burning on any day. Stay tuned for further updates.

I apologize for no alert maps being issued. All JRWeather graphics are undergoing maintenance, as they are being transformed for the new Champlain Valley Weather blog site. Sorry for any inconvenience.

JRWeather Closing; Fire Weather Watch In Effect

Very Dry Conditions Are Resulting In Potential Rapid Fire Growth...

     PLEASE VIEW PREVIOUS POST AFTER VIEWING THIS POST, FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE CLOSING OF THE JRWEATHER BLOG. Thanks.

DISCUSSION
     Recent dry conditions have resulted in the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch from the National Weather Service out of both Burlington, VT, and Albany, NY, for the entire state of Vermont, and the Champlain Valley of Northern New York.

     Part of the criteria for a Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag Warning for pre-greenup (late winter-early spring) is a quarter inch or less of precipitation in the previous 3 days. This has clearly been the case for our region, as the last widespread measurable precipitation was back on the 8th which was 4 days ago, but that was generally less then a quarter of an inch, except across far eastern/ northeastern Vermont, where over a half inch of rain was reported with isolated areas with over an inch. With that in mine I don't feel the Northeast Kingdom (NEK) is needed under the Watch or the potential subsequent Red Flag Warning, as too much rain in that area, plus some snow still on the ground across that area will help eliminate the fire threat, regardless of any other factors.

     The next factor for the region (Minus NEK) is winds will be strong. Winds will be sustained in the 10-20MPH range, with gusts up to 35MPH, especially in the North-South oriented valleys, such as the Champlain Valley, and lower Connecticut River Valley. In addition relative humidities will be very low, ranging from 18-25%.

     All these factors combined will result in the potential for rapid fire growth should fires develop. It is strongly recommended not to burn Monday as the fire will easily get out of your control. If a Red Flag Warning is issued then you should not be burning. If you decide to disobey your local communities burn policies, and/ or a Red Flag Warning, by burning, it could result in not only a devastating fire, but subsequent legal penalties as well. Remember to contact your local fire warden, or fire officials before burning, on any day. Stay tuned for further updates.

I apologize for no alert maps being issued. All JRWeather graphics are undergoing maintenance, as they are being transformed for the new Champlain Valley Weather blog site. Sorry for any inconvenience.

JRWeather Shutting Down; Its Not As Bad As It Sounds

   JRWeather Coming To An End April, 17th 2009...

     Although its somewhat disappointing to announce this, the JRWeather blog will no longer be active. I have came to the unfortunate realization, that working, and life take up quite a bit of time, leaving me short to forecast nothing but significant weather only. I don't want to be a forecaster who only forecasts the bad weather, I want to be a forecaster that forecasts all the weather, and to cover the entire state of Vermont, and Northern New York, is unfortunately too time consuming for just myself to do. Those of you who know me, know that I have to be very detailed in my forecasts, I don't like to give a general forecast, I like to give an accurate, and very detailed forecast, and to do this for the entire area that I cover now, would take up more time then I have. That's why I only forecast significant weather events. I don't want people to think I don't have time to forecast for them, but it literally is too time consuming. Look at any weather forecasting agency... The National Weather Service, Weather Bug, The Weather Channel, and Accuweather to name a few, they may cover the entire country, but they also have teams of people who do state, or regional forecasts. It takes more then one person to do that, and I am only one person.

     With all that said, there is still good news. JRWeather may no longer be around, however, the all new "Champlain Valley Weather" will come to life. I plan on cutting the coverage area down, to the Champlain Valley, and the nearby western slopes of the Green mountains. What this will do, is eliminate JRWeather's current coverage area of 18 counties! And drop it to 9 Counties, these being Eastern Clinton, and Eastern Essex Counties in New York, and Grand Isle, Franklin, Chittenden, Addison, Orleans, Lamoille, and Washington Counties in Vermont. What this will do, is allow me to put out forecasts for not just bad weather, but good weather too. Meaning yes you will have a temperature, wind, and precipitation forecast, in addition to significant weather that comes along. While this may not be the Champlain Valley only, the largest geographical area covered in the new layout, is the Champlain Valley, hence the name "Champlain Valley Weather". And along with the new name, comes a new, more professional looking blog site. So for those of you who view JRWeather, and live in the Champlain Valley, and adjacent areas, this will be an improvement for you. A smaller area, allows me to make detailed forecasts in a timely manner. You wont just be getting a forecast on the bad weather, you will be getting a forecast on all the weather. I will still continue to do personal forecasts for those, who ask for a forecast, and "Champlain Valley Weather" will also still cover some of the larger national events like hurricanes, major severe weather outbreaks, etc.

Stay tuned for further information, and a link to the new "Champlain Valley Weather"!!

If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment, and I will get back to you ASAP.

Flood Watch Cancelled For The Entire Region

Local Report...
   Significant Rainfall Coming To An End; Flood Threat Has Diminished...

DISCUSSION
     I have decided to drop the flood watch for the rest of Vermont. Rivers are already starting to show signs of cresting. There may be some additional rises, but rivers should not rise above flood stage. Smaller creeks, streams, and brooks could rise slightly out of their banks, resulting in some minor field, and low land flooding, but nothing that's a threat to life or property, and nothing that will be widespread.

     Current radar trends indicate steady rain has moved out of the region, and well into Maine. The upper level low still situated over the State of New York, will continue to slowly drift north, while the 985mb surface low pressure currently north of Boston, will drift north as well. Both areas of low pressure will pretty much come together and become the same broad area of low pressure, and meander around north of the international border at least into Wednesday, before weakening enough to hopefully stop having an influence on our weather. Additional valley rain showers, and mountain snow and/ or rain showers will continue well into Wednesday. No real significant accumulation is likely. At best a quarter inch of rain could accumulate, with locally higher amounts in some areas, but nothing that is going to cause any type of hydrological problems.

     As far as snow goes, by Wednesday we could see a total of 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts. The Northern Adirondacks would be the most likely to see higher amounts, as lake effect precipitation off lake Ontario will slightly enhance any snow totals. These accumulations will be confined mainly to elevations above 1000 feet, with only a trace to perhaps an inch below 1000 feet. With that said though, portions of the Tug Hill Plateau look to get hammered with snow once again. The tug hill region is under a Lake Effect Snow Warning, where snow totals could range from 10-18 inches!! Lower elevations such as Watertown, Adams, and Parish will likely have significantly less snow, ranging from 4-8 inches. Some areas along the immediate lake Ontario shore, will likely see only a trace of snow accumulation. One impressive fact about this entire situation is if Barnes Corners pulls off another 10-18 inches, then they will have received 28-36 inches of snow, just in the past two or three days. That's impressive for being in the month of April, but not totally unheard of. Now I love snow, but 2-3 feet of fresh snow on the ground in April!! Yikes!!

     Have yourself a goodnight everyone!

Rain Continues; Flood Watch & Wind Advisory Cancelled For Portions Of Vermont

Local Report...
   Rain Continues Across The Region; Flood Watch Cancelled For The Champlain Valley & Wind Advisory Cancelled For The Western Slopes Of The Green Mountains...

JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
     JRWeather Has Continued A Flood Watch For Orleans, Essex, Lamoille, Caledonia, Washington, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, Windham, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, and Eastern Addison Counties in Vermont Until 12PM Tuesday.

     JRWeather has cancelled the flood watch for the Champlain Valley in Vermont, this being the counties of Western Franklin, Western Chittenden, and Western Addison.

     Rain, occasionally heavy at times will continue into this evening, especially across eastern Vermont. The continued rain, combined with previous rainfall will result in rapid rises on area water ways, and the potential for minor flooding.

     Low pressure currently situated over western New York, will continue to drift northeast. This will result in continued rain across much of Vermont. Rain will fall heavy at times into this evening, especially across Southern, and Eastern Vermont. Total rainfall accumulations at this time look to range from three quarters of an inch to as much as one and a quarter inches. This amount of rain combined with recent rainfall will result in rapid rises on area waterways, and the potential for minor flooding. Steady rain should tapper off to light rain showers overnight.

     A flood watch is issued when the potential exists for flooding to occur, but not yet imminent, or occurring. If you experience rapidly rising water, or nearby flooding, then move immediately to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     As I had forecasted, as the storm goes negative tilt it would connect with Atlantic moisture and advect it back into the region, further west then models indicated. This would result in the Flood Watch being continued for western Vermont right?... Wrong. Unfortunately the rain we had earlier today, was in connection with warm air advection, this warm air advection outran the rest of the rain, and the jet dynamics didn't hold it together quite as I expected. The result was, not the dry slot moving in, but a break in the precip, due to the initial area of rain out running the precipitation across the mid-Atlantic region. If that break in the precipitation had not occurred, then my forecast and flood watch would have been right on, and remain untouched. Unfortunately things like this happen with weather. As expected though heavier rain has pushed in, and is falling further west then models had indicated. Its infact pushing into not only Clinton County as I had mentioned but its pushing into much of Essex, and Franklin Counties in New York as well. That's a bit further west then I had expected. Jet dynamics are impressive, and they are helping bring in copious amounts of moisture at this time. Widespread moderate to heavy rain is falling across Southern Vermont, far eastern Vermont, and much of New Hampshire. Things will continue to spread east though, and the steady/ moderate rain across the Champlain Valley will come to an end over the next couple hours. Rain showers though, will continue most of the night, as well as all day Tuesday. Rainfall accumulations will range from a half to three quarters of an inch across Northern New York, and the Champlain Valley. The rest of Vermont will see rainfall totals in the three quarters to one inch range, with isolated amounts as high as one and a half inches, across far Southeastern Vermont.

     The wind aspect has diminished, and with the low still trying to redevelop and not having much luck yet, it has stolen energy from the primary low, resulting in a slow intensification, and the pressure gradient not as tight as predicted. Thus the Wind Advisory has been cancelled. Stay tuned for further updates!


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No official alerts have been issued by the National Weather Service at this time.

Rain Moving In To Vermont; Flood Watch Cancelled For Northern New York

Local Report...
   Rain Continuing To Push Into Vermont; Flood Watches Have Been Cancelled For Northern New York...

JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
     JRWeather Has Continued A Flood Watch For All of Vermont, Excluding Grand Isle County Until 8PM Tuesday Evening.

     JRWeather has cancelled the flood watch for Northern New York.

     Significant rainfall is expected today, this combined with recent rains, and any remaining higher elevation snow, will result in the potential for area streams, brooks, and rivers to rise out of their banks.

     A low pressure system currently situated over the far western tip of New York, will continue to drift northeast, as low pressure redevelops just off the the mid-Atlantic coast, and Southern New England. This low pressure area will continue to spread rain across Vermont, and Northern New York. Rain should be falling across the entire region by noontime. Rain will fall heavy at times, especially across Southern, and Eastern Vermont during the afternoon hours today. Total rainfall accumulations at this time look to range from three quarters of an inch to as much as one and a quarter inches. This amount of rain combined with recent rainfall will result in rapid rises on area waterways, and the potential for minor flooding.

     A flood watch is issued when the potential exists for flooding to occur, but not yet imminent, or occurring. If you experience rapidly rising water, or nearby flooding, then move immediately to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WIND ADVISORY
     JRWeather Continues The Wind Advisory For Orleans, Lamoille, Washington, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, Eastern Addison, and Eastern Rutland Counties in Vermont Until 5PM Tonight.

     Low pressure currently over the far western tip of New York, will continue to drift northeast, and redevelop off the mid-Atlantic coast, and Southern New England. This storm is expected to bring strong winds to the Western Slopes of the Green mountains. Current indications are that sustained winds will range from 20-30MPH with gusts in the 45-50MPH. Winds of this magnitude can result in difficult driving, especially for high profile vehicles, loose object such as trash cans, and lawn chairs can be blown around as well.

     A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 30-39MPH and/ or gusts of 45-54MPH are expected. It is recommended to secure any loose object that will have the potential to be blown around. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Things looking interesting this morning. Large dry slot moving east, while precipitation is developing across the mid-Atlantic states. Also, significant pressure falls, just off the Carolina capes, to Southern New Jersey. It appears low pressure is trying to form within that area. Meanwhile, primary 990mb low pressure center is across Chautauqua County in far western New York. Water vapor imagery shows the significant dry slot nicely, but also shows rapidly developing convection out ahead of this dry slot, jet dynamics are also strong in this area, and with a good link to gulf of Mexico moisture, I feel that we will continue to see precipitation develop/ intensify over our area, the next several hours. The progression of the dry slot, should also slow down as time progresses, how far east it makes it though is key to the Flood Watch for the Western portion of Vermont. Weather models want to put the heaviest precipitation just to the east of the Champlain Valley, however as this storm starts to go negative tilt, which is also obvious in water vapor imagery, it will link up with moisture from the Atlantic, and advect that back into our region as well. So I feel the cut off line is a bit to far east on the models. As the storm goes negative tilt, it may actually allow significant precipitation to continue across Clinton County New York as well. One thing models do show nicely is precipitation rapidly developing over our region this afternoon, heavy at times too.

     With all that in mind, I am expecting a half to three quarter of an inch of rain for Northern New York, with locally higher amounts across Northeastern New York. I am expecting three quarters of an inch to one inch of rain across the western half of Vermont, and one inch to one and a half inches of rain across the eastern half of Vermont. With that mentioned, I have cancelled the Flood Watch for northern New York as not enough rain will fall to cause flooding. Sharp rises will still likely be noted on smaller brooks, and streams, as well as the East Branch of the Ausable River. But the likelihood of flooding has diminished across this area. For Vermont, the Flood Watch will continue, the area most vulnerable to flooding will be southern, and eastern Vermont. In Western Vermont, the flood threat is marginal but it will be close for smaller tributaries across the region. The only larger river that could experience flooding is the Otter Creek. Other then that, the rest of western Vermont, may see flooding on area streams, brooks, and other small tributaries to the larger rivers.

     The wind aspect of this system, remains intact. The Wind Advisory has been continued for the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains, as Southeasterly wind, should help produce some stronger gap, and mountain pass winds. Winds could gust as high as 50MPH this afternoon. Once again this is for areas along the western slopes of the green mountains only. A couple of the most susceptible places to these kinds of winds, are Rutland, and Cambridge. Right now winds have been increasing across Rutland, with a gust of 30MPH reported about 15 minutes ago. Unfortunately there is no automated report stations in Cambridge, so at this point wind speed are not known. They are likely similar to Rultands winds. Stay tuned for further updates!


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No official alerts have been issued by the National Weather Service at this time.

Strong Winds & Potentialy Heavy Rain To Hit The Region Tomorrow

Local Report...
   Strong Winds, and Potentially Heavy Rain Will Overspread The Region By Monday Morning; JRWeather Flood Watch & Wind Advisory In Effect...

JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
     JRWeather Has Continued The Flood Watch For All of Vermont, and All of Northern New York From 8AM Monday Morning, Until 8PM Tuesday Evening.

     Significant rainfall is expected Monday into Tuesday, this combined with recent rains, and any remaining higher elevation snow, will result in the potential for rivers to rise out of their banks.

     A low pressure system moving through the Ohio valley, will redevelop over Southern New England and is expected to bring moderate to heavy rain to the region for Monday, and Monday evening. Rain should overspread the entire region by mid Monday morning. Rain will fall possibly heavy at times, especially across Southern, and Eastern Vermont during the afternoon hours Monday. Total rainfall accumulations at this time look to range from three quarters of an inch to as much as one and a quarter inches. This amount of rain combined with recent rainfall will result in rapid rises on area waterways, and the potential for minor flooding.

     A flood watch is issued when the potential exists for flooding to occur, but not yet imminent, or occurring. If you experience rapidly rising water, or nearby flooding, then move immediately to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WIND ADVISORY
     JRWeather Has Issued A Wind Advisory For Orleans, Lamoille, Washington, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, Eastern Addison, and Eastern Rutland Counties in Vermont From 8AM Monday Morning Until 11PM Monday Night.

     A low pressure system expected to move across the Ohio Valley, and redevelop over Southern New England is expected to bring strong to potential damaging winds to the Western Slopes of the Green mountains. Current indications are that sustained winds will range from 20-30MPH with gusts in the 45-50MPH. Winds of this magnitude can result in difficult driving, especially for high profile vehicles, loose object such as trash cans, and lawn chairs can be blown around as well.

     A wind advisory is issued when sustained winds of 30-39MPH and/ or gusts of 45-54MPH are expected. It is recommended to secure any loose object that will have the potential to be blown around. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     I have gone ahead, and updated the alerts. I have continued the Flood Watch, and have changed the High Wind Watch to a Wind Advisory. At this point damaging winds look less likely, never the less strong winds expected will still require an advisory. It looks like things may not be quite as bad as expected, but there is still time for things to unexpectedly change (Unlikely though).

     Weather models continue to be in fair agreement on the overall set up, there is some discrepancies still as far as how much precipitation falls, and where exactly it will fall. The most recent 00Z NAM model run shows widespread three quarters to one and a quarter inches of rain across the entire area, while the latest 00Z GFS model run indicates less precipitation, ranging from a half to three quarters of an inch. 21Z SREF plume diagrams for Burlington, VT show significant spread, ranging from as little as a third of an inch to as much as one and a third inches, however there is a cluster of 9 of the 20 members indicating a total of three quarters to nine tenths of an inch. With 5 of those 9 members being clustered in the eight to nine tenths of an inch range. This still makes for a difficult precipitation total forecast. It doesn't help that I am unable to look at the other plume diagrams. The eyewall site doesn't seem to be up and running at the moment. With all that in mind, I will continue to follow closely to the higher end of the NAM model. I feel that due to good connection to the Gulf of Mexico, and eventually the Atlantic, I feel that enough moisture will flow into our area, to drop three quarter to one and a quarter inches of rain. The dry slot though will have to be watched closely. If the dry slot becomes bigger then expected, or shifts, then less precipitation could occur.

     The wind aspect of this system has changed as well. The NAM model drops the wind threat considerably, while the GFS model continues to indicate some strong winds to still occur. As far as the winds go, I will continue to stick with the GFS, but drop wind speeds some, as the direction is not as favorable for strong gap, and mountain pass winds to occur across the Western slopes of the Green Mountains. Still though, these areas will experience sustained winds in the 20-30MPH range with gusts ranging from 45-50MPH.

     The final aspect of the storm is snow. The amount of snow expected has dwindled down quite a bit as well. It now looks like there will only be 1-3 inches of snow at best, with locally higher amounts, especially across the Northern Adirondacks. Accumulating snow should be confined to areas above 1000 feet, with the higher totals at and above 1500 feet. This system will be somewhat similar to the last one that we had.


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No official alerts have been issued by the National Weather Service at this time.

Strong Storm To Bring Flooding & Wind Concerns Monday Into Tuesday

Local Report...
   Significant Storm System To Impact The Region Monday Into Tuesday; JRWeather High Wind Watch & Flood Watch In Effect...

JRWeather HIGH WIND WATCH
     JRWeather has issued a High Wind Watch For Bennington, Orleans, Lamoille, Washington, Rutland, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, Eastern Addison, and Western Windham Counties in Vermont From 8AM Monday Morning Until 11PM Monday Night.

     A low pressure system expected to move across the Ohio Valley, and redevelop over Southern New England is expected to bring strong to potential damaging winds to the Western Slopes of the Green mountains. Current indications are that sustained winds will range from 30-40MPH with gusts in excess of 60MPH. Winds of this magnitude are strong enough to knock down trees, resulting in the potential for power outages, and minor structural damage. It is recommended to secure loose objects, so any damage that may occur from objects being blown around will be minimal.

     Winds will slowly diminish late Monday, bringing and end to the potential damaging wind threat, but gusty winds of up to 30MPH may persist into Wednesday. A High Wind Watch is issued when the potential for sustained winds of 40MPH or greater and/or gusts to 55MPH or greater are expected, but not imminent. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
     JRWeather Has Issued A Flood Watch For All of Vermont, and All of Northern New York From 8AM Monday Morning, Until 8PM Tuesday Evening.

     Significant rainfall is expected Monday into Tuesday, this combined with recent rains, and any remaining higher elevation snow, will result in the potential for rivers to rise out of their banks.

     A low pressure system that will move through the Ohio valley, and redevelop over Southern New England is expected to bring moderate to heavy rain to the region. Rain should start as early as Sunday night, to as late as mid Monday morning. Rain will fall potentially heavy at times, especially across Southern, and Eastern Vermont during the afternoon hours Monday. Total rainfall accumulations at this time look to range from three quarters of an inch to as much as one and a quarter inches. There could be isolated higher amounts across Southern, and Eastern Vermont. This amount of rain combined with recent rainfall will result in rapid rises on area waterways, and the potential for flooding.

     A Flood watch is issued when there is the potential for flooding to occur, but not imminent. If you experience rapidly rising water, or nearby flooding, then move immediately to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Looks like things will get wet, and windy once again. This time though the winds might pack a stronger punch. Weather models, continue to be in fair agreement, on the overall situation. The GFS has now come into better agreement, on how deep the low pressure system will get. The GFS is now showing a low pressure center redeveloping over the mid-Atlantic/ Southern New England area, and then slowly drift to the north, as it deepens to 980mb. Other models indicate the central pressure being anywhere from 982mb to 985mb. I will continue to forecast a low pressure system moving through the Ohio valley, and redeveloping near the mid-Atlantic/ southern New England region, and deepening to a 980-985mb low pressure system. I feel the low will somewhat retrograde to the West-northwest or northwest, then finally weaken, lessening its impact on our region by Wednesday night.

     It looks as though anywhere from three quarters of an inch to one and a quarter inches of rain will fall. There could be localized amounts to near 2 inches where the heaviest rain falls. These isolated higher amounts will likely be witnessed across Southern, and Eastern Vermont. Never-the-less that amounts of rain on top of the rain we received Friday and Saturday will likely cause some flooding problems. Therefor I have issued a Flood Watch for the entire area. The Champlain Valley was going to be excluded up until Saturday afternoon, when a half to three quarters of an inch of additional rain fell in the Valley Saturday, due to significant wrap around moisture. Therefor the Champlain Valley made up for the majority of the shadowing that occurred with the Friday portion of this most recent storm. The valley went from a forecasted storm total of a third to half inch to three quarters to one inch total for the Friday/ Saturday storm.

     With the above mentioned surface pressure and track, it should be mentioned that winds will be strong, but thankfully not as strong as models were predicting days ago. This is in part thanks to a weaker expected storm system, and a slightly different track then first expected. The changes will result in a more South-Southeasterly wind, instead of the favorable Southeast or east winds, that produce the well known damaging gap, and mountain pass winds along the Western Slopes of the Green mountains. With that said, the western slopes are still not out of the woods. Strong to potentially damaging winds may still occur, just not to the extent first predicted. Sustained winds at this point look to range from the 30-40MPH with gusts up to 60MPH, with the potential for isolated higher gusts in favored areas. Due to the expected winds, I have issued a High Wind Watch for the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. Conditions will continue to be closely monitored for any changes.

     Last but certainly not least, the snow aspect of this system. As cold air wraps around the system, rain should change over to snow for a time across the higher elevations, especially across Northern New York. Wrap around precipitation might be similar to the current storm we had, but with more colder air in place significant snow accumulations could occur, mainly above 1000 feet. At this time snow amounts should remain below Warning criteria, so I have not issued a Winter Storm Watch, however a Winter Weather Advisory may eventually be needed for the potential of 3-6 inches of snow by Tuesday Afternoon. Wrap around precipitation could linger into as late as Wednesday night! Stay tuned for further updates on this upcoming storm system.


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There are no official alerts from the National Weather Service at this time

Rain Continues Tonight

Local Report...
   Wrap Around Precipitation Continues...

DISCUSSION
     First off, there will be an update on the Monday - Tuesday storm later tonight. I just want to wait for the latest GFS model to come in. But until then we will talk a bit about whats been going on today...

     Significant wrap around precipitation continues at this hour. A bit more rain has fallen then first expected, especially across the Champlain Valley, of Vermont. Wrap around precipitation has been dominant the entire day today, as low pressure slowly drifts northeastward. Infact the area of wrap around moisture is so large its been effecting areas from Rochester, NY all the way to the Western Slopes of the Green mountains in Vermont.

     Rain although light has resulted in a half inch accumulation here in Swanton today, since about 7AM and light rain continues. Total rainfall from this storm which began on Friday is now almost to an inch. Snow has been mixing in with the rain especially at elevations above 1000 feet, although snow has been spotted mixing in with the rain all the way to the Valley floors, at times. Elevations of 1500 feet and higher across the Green Mountains of Vermont, and the Northern Adirondack Mountains of New York, could see 1-3 inches of accumulation with locally higher amounts. Very interesting situation across the Tug Hill Plateau, which is east of Lake Ontario. Across the Tug hill, snow accumulations have ranged from 3-6 inches with a recent report of 18.5 inches in Barnes Corners!! Snow looks to continue in that area for at least a couple more hours, Heavy at times as well. General accumulations across the tug hill at elevations of 1000-1300 feet should range from 3-6 inches, and elevations above 1300 feet will see a general accumulation of 5-9 inches with isolated amounts up to 12 inches. Infact, Barnes Corners could end up with as much as 2 feet of snow by early tomorrow morning!! Yikes!!!

     Looking at radar trends it looks like light valley rain, and mountain snow will continue for the overnight hours. The back edge of the wrap around moisture is finally beginning to move out of Rochester now. But it will take several hours to move through the rest of Northern New York, and Western Vermont. Upstream radars across Canada show more moisture being advected towards Vermont, as this system is trying to pull away. So an additional quarter inch of rain is not out of the question by Sunrise tomorrow. Isolated amounts slightly over a quarter inch could possibly occur by tomorrow morning. Stay tuned for an update on the upcoming storm for Monday and Tuesday.

     Also, the Flood Warning for the Batten Kill at Arlington, Vermont has been Cancelled. The River has already crested and has fallen below flood stage.

Flooding On The Batten Kill In Arlington, Vermont

Local Report...
   The Batten Kill Rises Out Of Its Banks In Bennington County...

JRWeather FLOOD WARNING
     JRWeather Has Issued A Flood Warning For Bennington County in Vermont Until 1AM Sunday.

     The Batten Kill Has Risen Out Of Its Banks In Bennington County Vermont.

     At 10:30AM The Batten Kill at Arlington, Vermont was at a stage of 6.0 Feet. Flood Stage on the Batten Kill at Arlington is 6.0 Feet. The river has been continuing to rise steadily, and should crest around 6.2 Feet this evening. The river is expected to fall below flood stage around 1AM Sunday morning.

     If you live along the banks of the Batten Kill, and flooding has began to occur, then it is recommended to move to higher ground.

     A Flood Warning is issued when Flooding is occurring or imminent. If you live in a flood prone area, that is experiencing high water, move to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.


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Winter's Not Yet Over; Hold Onto Your Hats, This May Be A Doozy!

Local Report...
   Flooding Concerns Tonight; Damaging Winds, Additional Flooding Concerns & Accumulating Snow For Monday & Tuesday...

JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
     JRWeather Has Issued A Flood Watch For Orleans, Essex, Lamoille, Caledonia, Washington, Orange, Windsor, Bennington, Windham, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, Eastern Addison, and Eastern Rutland Counties in Vermont, and Southeastern St. Lawrence, Southern Franklin, Western Clinton, and Western Essex Counties Until Noontime Saturday.

     Significant rainfall, combined with higher elevation snowmelt today could result in the potential of Flooding overnight and into early Saturday morning.

     Temperatures in the low to mid 50'sF across the higher elevations has resulted in snowmelt and runoff, this combined with half to one inch of rain today, will likely result in rapid rises on area rivers, and resultant minor flooding. Additional rainfall of a tenth to locally a half inch is possible overnight, especially across Northern New York.

     The rivers that are at an elevated risk of flooding right now are the Missisquoi River in Orleans County, The Otter Creek in Rutland County, The Batten Kill, and Walloomsac River in Bennington County, The Williams River in Windham, and Windsor Counties, and The East Branch of the Ausable river in Essex and Clinton Counties in New York.

     Any flooding that does occur should remain minor.

     A Flood watch is issued when there is the potential for flooding to occur, but not imminent. If you experience rapidly rising water, or nearby flooding, then move immediatly to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Its been a bit since I have posted, there hasnt been anything to significant, but things will continue to change over the next several days.
     For tonight, rain showers will coninue across Vermont, with a more steady rain across Northern New York. Additional rainfall amounts of as little as a tenth of an inch to as much as one half inch are possible. This additional rain will likely aid in rapid rises on area rivers, and some minor flooding. Read the above Flood Watch for details on rivers that are at an elevated risk of flooding. Any remaining steady rain should tapper off tomorrow, and eventually mix with and change to snow across the higher elevations. Localized accumulations up to 2 inches are possible across the highest of elevations, such as Jay Peak. Mountains Valleys, and deeper lake, and river vallyes will only see a trace at best, during Saturday evening and overnight.

     We will have a very breif break in the action on Sunday, before things get very interesting for Sunday Night to Tuesday. Medium, and long range models have been in very good agreement with this next system, and now thats its approaching the time frame for the short term models, it will be interesting to see what happens. Right now GFS, ECMWF, JMA, Canadian, and DGEX models all shows a significant strom system is expected to form. Each model has small discrepencies, but are overall in similar agreement. The most recent 18Z GFS model is the most robust showing a negative tilted 976mb low pressure center over Central New York, and an extremly tight pressure gradient, across much of the Northeast US. The gradient is impressivley tight across Vermont, and New Hampshire, slightly tighter then over Western New York, and Pennsylvania. If the 18Z GFS model were to verify with this incredibly tight southeast to northwest flow pressure gradient, this may be devistating to areas along the Western slopes of the Green mountains, especially from Cambridge, VT to Rutland, VT. Southeast winds have been known to funnel through mountain passes, and gaps, producing significantly strong winds to this specific area. The pressure gradient being shown by the 18Z GFS would be capable of producing locally devestating wind gusts in the 80 to perhaps 90MPH range in areas such as Cambrige, and Rutland VT. At this point I feel that the GFS is a bit overdone with its 976mb low over central NY, however I do feel that significant winds will occur, with a low pressure center from the 980-985mb range, which is still very significant. Even if the weaker low pressure system that I am forecasting is to verify, that would still result in isolated 70MPH wind gusts in areas such as Cambridge, and Rutland, with widespread 50MPH wind gusts across the entire region. I feel this storm will be mostly noted for its wind, rather then the potential flooding, or snowfall it may cause. The rain and snow aspect will be covered in the next paragraph.

     Besides the potentially damaging winds with this system, the potential will result in potential flooding, and snowfall accumulations. This storm will tap into copious amounts of Atlantic, and even Gulf of Mexico moisture. This moisture will be rung out across the terrain of Vermont, and New York, as moderate to heavy rain, and possibly snow across the higher elevations, especially in Northern New York. Widespread rainfall totals in excess of an inch are possible. There may also be enough cold air dragged into this system to change the wind blown rain to mainly wind blown snow across portions of Northern New York. Early indications indicate that 4-8 inches of snow could accumulate across the higher elevations of the Northern and Central Adirondack mountains in Northern New York by Tuesday night. Across the Northern Green mountains, it will take longer for cold air to push in here, but with significant wrap around moisture expected, 3-6 inches is also likely in this area, by Wednesday. Localized amounts to near 9 inches could be possible near Jay Peak.

     I would like to urge, this forecast is based on current indications, things have more then enough time to change, and likely will. Whether its for the better or worse, is not yet known. JRWeather will continue to monitor this storm system, and update you as soon as more data becomes available, if models continue to be in good agreement, then High Wind Watches, Flood Watches, and Perhaps a Winter Storm Watch may be needed as early as Saturday Night. Stay tunned to JRWeather, and your local media, and weather outlets for further updates on this upcoming storm.

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