Local Update...
Snowstorm Coming To An End Expect For The Upslope regions/ Higher Elevations...
Overview...
The National Weather Service in Burlington has allowed the Winter Storm Warning for Northern New York to expire. They continue the Winter Storm Warning for Eastern Franklin, and All of Orleans Counties in Vermont, and also continue the Winter Weather Advisory for the remainder of Northeast Vermont, and the spine of the Green Mountains.
Current Radar Trends...
National Weather Service Doppler radar indicates that light to moderate snow with some occasional heavy bursts continue over the higher elevations of New York and Vermont. Some of the more widespread moderate to occasionally heavy snow is occurring across Northeastern New York's higher elevations, where radar echos are reading up to 25dbz which would indicate moderate to occasionally heavy snow. The other most concentrated area of snow is along the western slopes of the green mountains from Central to Northern Vermont. Along this area light to moderate snow is falling, with some heavy bursts the intensity is unfortunately hard to detect on radar due to beam blockage from the mountains.
Accumulations...
So far the storm has produced some significant snow totals, for the Northern and Central Adirondacks in Northern and upstate New York have generally ranged from 6 - 12 inches with a less widespread area receiving 9 - 15 inches, and isolated locations in that area receiving up to 24 inches of snow. For the St. Lawrence Valley snowfall amounts have generally ranged from 3 - 6 inches with a few of the more elevated portions of that valley receiving up to 9 inches and isolated areas receiving around 11 inches. For the entire Champlain Valley general snowfall amounts have ranged from 1 - 3 inches with some areas only having trace amounts, in the deepest portions of the valley near Lake Champlain. For the Western Facing Slopes and higher elevations of Vermont general snowfall amounts have ranged from 3 - 6 inches with isolated areas up to 8 inches. For the remainder of Vermont including Northeast, and South Central, general snowfall amounts have been 1 - 3 inches with isolated areas of up to 5 inches.
Forecast...
Light to Moderate Snow with occasional heavy bursts will continue across mainly the upslope/ higher elevation regions with only flurries to occasionally light snow falling elsewhere across Vermont, and Northern New York. Winds will also continue to be strong across the entire area. Winds will range from 15 - 25MPH with occasional gusts up to 40MPH. This will still have the potential to produce isolated power outages, especially in Northern New York where the greatest accumulations of heavy wet snow have occurred. Additional snowfall accumulations for the higher elevations of Northern New York will be 2 - 4 inches with locally higher amounts, especially across the higher elevations of Northeastern New York. For Northern, and Central Vermont's higher elevations additional snowfall accumulations will range from 2 - 6 inches with locally higher amounts, especially along the highest elevations of the western facing slopes. Areas such as Jay Peak, and Mount Mansfield. For the rest of Northern New York, and Vermont an additional Dusting - 2 inches is possible. Once again the higher amounts in the more elevated areas.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Significant Snowstorm Continues For New York, and Western New England
Local Update...
Snow Will Continue Overnight Especially In Northern New York, And The Western Slopes Of The Green Mountains...
The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT continues the Winter Storm Warnings for Northern New York, and Eastern Franklin County, and All of Orleans County in Vermont. The Winter Weather Advisory also remains in effect for the remainder of the spine of the green mountains and Northeastern Vermont.
Doppler Radar is indicating that intensity of precipitation is diminishing, except across Northern New York. Heavy snow is currently falling over much of St. Lawrence County with light to occasionally moderate snow across much of the remainder of New York. In Vermont a rain and snow mix continues in the deepest portions of the Champlain Valley with mainly snow a few miles away from lake Champlain. For an example in Swanton Vermont a light rain/snow mix was falling with no accumulation, but 4 miles east in Highgate Center snow is falling moderately with 1" of accumulation. As the low pressure system continues to move North, moisture will continue to lessen, making precipitation confined to upslope areas, especially in Northern New York, and Northern Vermont. The only exception to snow falling in Valley locations will be in the St. Lawrence Valley in New York, where a well defined deformation zone is set up with moderate to heavy snow falling. It appears via radar that snowfall rates in that area very well could be in the 1 - 2 inch per hour range in the heaviest bands.
Now to talk about total snowfall accumulations. For the St. Lawrence Valley, and the Northern Adirondack mountains in Northern New York total snowfall accumulations will range from 6 - 12 inches with local amounts of up to 16 - 18 inches. For the Champlain Valley of New York, and Vermont total snow accumulations will range from 1 - 3 inches with local amounts of up to 5 inches, especially on the New York side, and the elevated portions of the Valley on the Vermont side. For the Western Slopes/ spine of the green mountains total snowfall accumulations will be 4 - 8 inches with local amounts to 12 inches, especially in areas such as Jay Peak, Stowe Ski Resort, and Mount Mansfield. For Northeastern Vermont total snowfall accumulations will range from 2 - 5 inches with local amounts of up to 7 inches. For South-Central Vermont total snowfall accumulations will range from a dusting to 2 inches with local amounts of up to 4 inches in the higher elevations.
Of additional concern will continue to be the strong winds, combined with the heavy wet nature of the snow. Winds of 15 - 25 MPH with gusts to 45MPH will likely lead to downed tree limbs, resulting in downed power lines. The most likely are for significant power outages will be in Northern New York, where the highest snowfall accumulations occur. Second area of concern will be the western slopes of the green mountains, where the higher snowfall amounts combined with the wind will have a similar impact as in Northern New York. Stay tuned for any further updates!!
And to answer one of my blog viewers questions of whether this was a "Nor'easter" or not. I would say no, it was close, but its northward track through New England, ended its chances of being a full fledged nor'easter. It is very similar to a nor'easter though, as the storm formed off the Virginia coast and tracked up the coast to Long Island, but like I said above, that's where it lost its chance to be a Nor'easter as it tracked up into Western New England.
Snow Will Continue Overnight Especially In Northern New York, And The Western Slopes Of The Green Mountains...
The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT continues the Winter Storm Warnings for Northern New York, and Eastern Franklin County, and All of Orleans County in Vermont. The Winter Weather Advisory also remains in effect for the remainder of the spine of the green mountains and Northeastern Vermont.
Doppler Radar is indicating that intensity of precipitation is diminishing, except across Northern New York. Heavy snow is currently falling over much of St. Lawrence County with light to occasionally moderate snow across much of the remainder of New York. In Vermont a rain and snow mix continues in the deepest portions of the Champlain Valley with mainly snow a few miles away from lake Champlain. For an example in Swanton Vermont a light rain/snow mix was falling with no accumulation, but 4 miles east in Highgate Center snow is falling moderately with 1" of accumulation. As the low pressure system continues to move North, moisture will continue to lessen, making precipitation confined to upslope areas, especially in Northern New York, and Northern Vermont. The only exception to snow falling in Valley locations will be in the St. Lawrence Valley in New York, where a well defined deformation zone is set up with moderate to heavy snow falling. It appears via radar that snowfall rates in that area very well could be in the 1 - 2 inch per hour range in the heaviest bands.
Now to talk about total snowfall accumulations. For the St. Lawrence Valley, and the Northern Adirondack mountains in Northern New York total snowfall accumulations will range from 6 - 12 inches with local amounts of up to 16 - 18 inches. For the Champlain Valley of New York, and Vermont total snow accumulations will range from 1 - 3 inches with local amounts of up to 5 inches, especially on the New York side, and the elevated portions of the Valley on the Vermont side. For the Western Slopes/ spine of the green mountains total snowfall accumulations will be 4 - 8 inches with local amounts to 12 inches, especially in areas such as Jay Peak, Stowe Ski Resort, and Mount Mansfield. For Northeastern Vermont total snowfall accumulations will range from 2 - 5 inches with local amounts of up to 7 inches. For South-Central Vermont total snowfall accumulations will range from a dusting to 2 inches with local amounts of up to 4 inches in the higher elevations.
Of additional concern will continue to be the strong winds, combined with the heavy wet nature of the snow. Winds of 15 - 25 MPH with gusts to 45MPH will likely lead to downed tree limbs, resulting in downed power lines. The most likely are for significant power outages will be in Northern New York, where the highest snowfall accumulations occur. Second area of concern will be the western slopes of the green mountains, where the higher snowfall amounts combined with the wind will have a similar impact as in Northern New York. Stay tuned for any further updates!!
And to answer one of my blog viewers questions of whether this was a "Nor'easter" or not. I would say no, it was close, but its northward track through New England, ended its chances of being a full fledged nor'easter. It is very similar to a nor'easter though, as the storm formed off the Virginia coast and tracked up the coast to Long Island, but like I said above, that's where it lost its chance to be a Nor'easter as it tracked up into Western New England.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Significant Storm System To Bring Snow To The Northeast
Local Update...
A Strong Storm System Is Expected To Bring Snow To Portions Of The Northeast...
The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a winter storm watch for the St. Lawrence Valley, and the Northern Adirondack mountains for the potential of 8 - 12 inches of Snow. Other National Weather Service offices have issued Winter Storm Watches, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories for other portions of Central, and Northern New York.
Computer models have came into much better agreement, and have also shifted further west. Bringing a 984 millibar low over Central New England. Which means less snow for Vermont, and New Hampshire. Everyone will still likely see some snow but some areas may not get as much as first thought. Its still tough to call, if the storm tracks 50 miles to the east, it will bring significant snow to Vermont, and if it goes further west, then it would mean less snow for Central, and Northern New York. Below you will find an image showing where the low pressure system is expected to form, and the two potential tracks. At this time the yellow track is the one that is currently forecasted. The low pressure system will move North from the Delmarva peninsula area, and track North into South-Central New England, at this point the deeply digging trough (talked about in previous posts) is expected to negatively tilt causing the low pressure center to back slightly and track to the northwest a bit. Unfortunately this track will place too much warm air over New Hampshire, Vermont, and the Champlain Valley, to bring a significant snowfall. Although towards the end of the storm we will get in on colder air changing the rain to snow.
Rain showers will become more numerous tonight, and continue into Tuesday morning, mixing with and changing to snow by afternoon in Northern and Central New York, rain will continue across Vermont until late evening, when rain will mix with and change over to snow. Snow will continue into Wednesday morning when it will taper off. The Champlain valley and lower elevations in Vermont may see a mix with rain as the storm winds down. Also of concern are strong winds. Winds should increase into the 15 - 30MPH range with gusts to 50MPH by late Tuesday. Higher elevations could see gusts to 60MPH. Snowfall accumulations in Northern New York will range from 6 - 12 inches. The Champlain Valley, and other lower elevations in Vermont will see 1 - 3 inches of snow, and the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains, and higher elevations will see 3 - 6 inches with locally higher amounts.
A Strong Storm System Is Expected To Bring Snow To Portions Of The Northeast...
The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a winter storm watch for the St. Lawrence Valley, and the Northern Adirondack mountains for the potential of 8 - 12 inches of Snow. Other National Weather Service offices have issued Winter Storm Watches, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories for other portions of Central, and Northern New York.
Computer models have came into much better agreement, and have also shifted further west. Bringing a 984 millibar low over Central New England. Which means less snow for Vermont, and New Hampshire. Everyone will still likely see some snow but some areas may not get as much as first thought. Its still tough to call, if the storm tracks 50 miles to the east, it will bring significant snow to Vermont, and if it goes further west, then it would mean less snow for Central, and Northern New York. Below you will find an image showing where the low pressure system is expected to form, and the two potential tracks. At this time the yellow track is the one that is currently forecasted. The low pressure system will move North from the Delmarva peninsula area, and track North into South-Central New England, at this point the deeply digging trough (talked about in previous posts) is expected to negatively tilt causing the low pressure center to back slightly and track to the northwest a bit. Unfortunately this track will place too much warm air over New Hampshire, Vermont, and the Champlain Valley, to bring a significant snowfall. Although towards the end of the storm we will get in on colder air changing the rain to snow.
Rain showers will become more numerous tonight, and continue into Tuesday morning, mixing with and changing to snow by afternoon in Northern and Central New York, rain will continue across Vermont until late evening, when rain will mix with and change over to snow. Snow will continue into Wednesday morning when it will taper off. The Champlain valley and lower elevations in Vermont may see a mix with rain as the storm winds down. Also of concern are strong winds. Winds should increase into the 15 - 30MPH range with gusts to 50MPH by late Tuesday. Higher elevations could see gusts to 60MPH. Snowfall accumulations in Northern New York will range from 6 - 12 inches. The Champlain Valley, and other lower elevations in Vermont will see 1 - 3 inches of snow, and the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains, and higher elevations will see 3 - 6 inches with locally higher amounts.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Significant Snow Storm Looking More LIkely
Local Update...
All Weather Models Coming On Board With A Possible Significant Snowstorm For Tuesday Night into Wednesday Night...
Things are looking increasingly likely for a potential significant snowfall across Northern New York, and Northern Vermont. Nearly all computer models are coming into agreement, with the track of the storm system. The ECMWF has appeared to have performed amazingly thus far, this model has been indicating a potential significant storm system including some snow for about a week. The NAM model came onto the storm early sunday, and the GFS has just came in indicating a similar track as the other models have been showing. Another significant piece of information is the fact that nearly all of them indicate the storm system significantly intensifing. The GFS 00Z run brings the central pressure to 980mb, 00Z NAM brings the central pressure to 980mb, and the 00Z ECMWF run bring the central pressure to 984mb. So it looks like this storm is going to intensify sooner, and stronger then expected. This would also bring on a threat of very strong winds. But we will wait a couple more model runs before we begin to write it in stone.
So at this point it looks like everyone will see some snow. But the most significant snowfall will occur in the higher elevations. Larger Valley locations will see some significant rain. It still depends on how strong the storm gets, if it does get to around 980mb while moving across Maine, into Southeastern Quebec, then enough cold air may be wrapped in to bring some significant snow to Valley locations. Unfortunatlty due to the time of year, its going to be tough to get the valleys to fill with significant snowfall. We will see how things unfold. I am still sticking with 1 - 3 inches of snow in the larger Valleys, to 4 - 8 inches in the higher elevations. But please remember these are very early estimates. There is more then enough time for things to change. For the most part it looks like a significant valley rain maker, and mountain snow maker. So please, stay tunned.
All Weather Models Coming On Board With A Possible Significant Snowstorm For Tuesday Night into Wednesday Night...
Things are looking increasingly likely for a potential significant snowfall across Northern New York, and Northern Vermont. Nearly all computer models are coming into agreement, with the track of the storm system. The ECMWF has appeared to have performed amazingly thus far, this model has been indicating a potential significant storm system including some snow for about a week. The NAM model came onto the storm early sunday, and the GFS has just came in indicating a similar track as the other models have been showing. Another significant piece of information is the fact that nearly all of them indicate the storm system significantly intensifing. The GFS 00Z run brings the central pressure to 980mb, 00Z NAM brings the central pressure to 980mb, and the 00Z ECMWF run bring the central pressure to 984mb. So it looks like this storm is going to intensify sooner, and stronger then expected. This would also bring on a threat of very strong winds. But we will wait a couple more model runs before we begin to write it in stone.
So at this point it looks like everyone will see some snow. But the most significant snowfall will occur in the higher elevations. Larger Valley locations will see some significant rain. It still depends on how strong the storm gets, if it does get to around 980mb while moving across Maine, into Southeastern Quebec, then enough cold air may be wrapped in to bring some significant snow to Valley locations. Unfortunatlty due to the time of year, its going to be tough to get the valleys to fill with significant snowfall. We will see how things unfold. I am still sticking with 1 - 3 inches of snow in the larger Valleys, to 4 - 8 inches in the higher elevations. But please remember these are very early estimates. There is more then enough time for things to change. For the most part it looks like a significant valley rain maker, and mountain snow maker. So please, stay tunned.
Significant Snow Storm Possible Across Northern New England, and Northern New York
Local Update...
First Significant Snowstorm Of The Season Possible Midweek...
Its been a while since I have posted but I am back with an update, I am hoping to get more frequent updates out now that the winter season is approaching.
Things may be shaping up for out first significant snowstorm, including the larger valleys. Weather models have been indicating that a digging jet stream across the eastern US will bring a significant amount of cold air, even down to the deep south. Weather models are not exactly in very good agreement, but the most consistent has been the ECMWF. This model thus far has performed very well. The GFS model is showing a much weaker low pressure system forming well out over the ocean and not effecting the area much at all. The NAM model is now coming in on the storm system, and the 12z run of the NAM indicates that the low pressure system would explode with a minimum central pressure of 976mb being a potential blizzard. Now I want to make it clear that I highly doubt the 12z NAM run will come true, I think its still having some difficulty handling the storm. What is interesting is all models indicate that the digging jet will cause things to go negative til which would allow the Low Pressure system to form out east of cape cod and track back to the Northwest, and up over eastern New England. This will bring significant moisture into the Northeast.
So what I feel will likely occur is that we will receive a storm, a low pressure system will form southeast of the Gulf of Maine and track to the Northwest. Across Maine, this will bring plenty of moisture into the region. Now I don't feel it will intensify to a 976mb bomb of a storm but, I do feel it will be around 990mb when it affects us. I feel the storm will be mainly snow in the higher elevations, and a rain snow mix changing to all snow in the Valleys. Now its way to early to call any snow accumulations but the potential exists for 1-3 inches in the valleys, and 4-8 inches in the higher elevations. This snow will likely be very wet and heavy. I do want to urge that we could end up with more snow if the NAM were to actually materialize, and significantly less if the GFS materializes. So right now, we will play it conservative. Stay tuned for further updates.
First Significant Snowstorm Of The Season Possible Midweek...
Its been a while since I have posted but I am back with an update, I am hoping to get more frequent updates out now that the winter season is approaching.
Things may be shaping up for out first significant snowstorm, including the larger valleys. Weather models have been indicating that a digging jet stream across the eastern US will bring a significant amount of cold air, even down to the deep south. Weather models are not exactly in very good agreement, but the most consistent has been the ECMWF. This model thus far has performed very well. The GFS model is showing a much weaker low pressure system forming well out over the ocean and not effecting the area much at all. The NAM model is now coming in on the storm system, and the 12z run of the NAM indicates that the low pressure system would explode with a minimum central pressure of 976mb being a potential blizzard. Now I want to make it clear that I highly doubt the 12z NAM run will come true, I think its still having some difficulty handling the storm. What is interesting is all models indicate that the digging jet will cause things to go negative til which would allow the Low Pressure system to form out east of cape cod and track back to the Northwest, and up over eastern New England. This will bring significant moisture into the Northeast.
So what I feel will likely occur is that we will receive a storm, a low pressure system will form southeast of the Gulf of Maine and track to the Northwest. Across Maine, this will bring plenty of moisture into the region. Now I don't feel it will intensify to a 976mb bomb of a storm but, I do feel it will be around 990mb when it affects us. I feel the storm will be mainly snow in the higher elevations, and a rain snow mix changing to all snow in the Valleys. Now its way to early to call any snow accumulations but the potential exists for 1-3 inches in the valleys, and 4-8 inches in the higher elevations. This snow will likely be very wet and heavy. I do want to urge that we could end up with more snow if the NAM were to actually materialize, and significantly less if the GFS materializes. So right now, we will play it conservative. Stay tuned for further updates.
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