GUSTAV UPDATE...
Gustav Has Still Not Strengthened; Tropical Storm Force Winds About To Spread Into New Orleans...
National Weather Service Doppler Radar indicates that a very large rain band is about to spread over New Orleans, already tropical storm force winds have been reported on the extreme southeastern coast of Louisiana. In the rainband about to effect New Orleans should contain tropical storm force winds. The winds will continue to increase overnight, and hurricane force winds will likely be felt along the Southeastern coast of Lousisiana by midnight or shortly thereafter. In The New Orleans area Hurricane force winds wont be felt until tomorrow mid-morning. Storm surge will be in the 9 - 15 feet range. This includes areas along the southeast coast, including New Orleans. Stay tuned for further updates.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Gustav's Outer Rain Bands Begining To Effect The Northern Gulf Coast
GUSTAV UPDATE...
Gustav Remains A Category 3 Hurricane With No Additional Strengthening Yet; Outer Rain Bands Beginning To Effect The Northern Gulf Coast...
Major Hurricane Gustav's outer rain bands are beginning to move across the Florida Panhandle, Southern Alabama, Southern Mississippi, and Southeastern Louisiana. Sustained winds across the extreme southern/ coastal section of the above mentioned areas are in the teens to near twenty miles per hour. Winds will continue to increase and should spread further west across the rest of Louisiana, to the Louisiana/ Texas border. Southern/ Coastal Louisiana, Southern/ Coastal Mississippi, Southern/ Coastal Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle should see Tropical Storm force winds by midnight or shortly thereafter. Hurricane force winds will begin to be felt across Coastal Mississippi, and Coastal Louisiana by early tomorrow morning. Stay tuned for further updates!
Gustav Remains A Category 3 Hurricane With No Additional Strengthening Yet; Outer Rain Bands Beginning To Effect The Northern Gulf Coast...
Major Hurricane Gustav's outer rain bands are beginning to move across the Florida Panhandle, Southern Alabama, Southern Mississippi, and Southeastern Louisiana. Sustained winds across the extreme southern/ coastal section of the above mentioned areas are in the teens to near twenty miles per hour. Winds will continue to increase and should spread further west across the rest of Louisiana, to the Louisiana/ Texas border. Southern/ Coastal Louisiana, Southern/ Coastal Mississippi, Southern/ Coastal Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle should see Tropical Storm force winds by midnight or shortly thereafter. Hurricane force winds will begin to be felt across Coastal Mississippi, and Coastal Louisiana by early tomorrow morning. Stay tuned for further updates!
Gustav Weakens; Outter Rain Bands To Being Effecting Gulf Coast Soon
GUSTAV UPDATE...
Gustav Weakens, But Remains A Major Hurricane; Gustav Is Still A Storm Not To Mess Around With, Evacuations And Preparations Need To Be Rushed To Completion...
Hurricane Gustav has weakened since it made landfall over Cuba. The interaction with Cuba has apparently taken a more severe toll on Gustav then expected. Never-the-less Gustav remains a dangerous Category 3 Hurricane. Further strengthening is likely, but no rapid intensification is likely due to the fact that it will be moving over water that's slightly cooler by about 2 - 5 degrees, and some increasing shear. There is an eye but its not very evident on satellite imagery, and the coldest cloud tops are mainly to the southwest of it. With all that said Gustav still remains a major hurricane with sustained winds of 115MPH with gusts to 140MPH. Pressure has just recently dropped a little more to 956 Millibars.
National Weather Service Doppler Radar indicates that outer rain bands continue to effect the Florida Peninsula, and Rain bands will be spreading across the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana over the next several hours. These rain bands will produce squally weather, and wind gusts up to 35MPH. Tropical storm force winds will arrive later tonight. All preparations and evacuations need to be rushed to completion. If you live from the central Louisiana Coast and east at BEST you have 2-5 hours before things start to go downhill. If you live west of the central Louisiana coast to the Louisiana Texas border you have at BEST 5-8 hours before things go downhill. If you did not evacuate and you live along the coast in those areas or up to 50 miles inland you need to rush thing to completion and take cover. Expected storm surge flooding has gone down slightly but still a dangerous 9 - 12 feet with Southeast Louisiana including Lake Pontchartrain seeing storm surge up to 18 feet above normal tide. This is a very dangerous situation.
Computer models continue to indicate a landfall along the south central Louisiana coast. This will allow for the highest storm surge to occur to the east of the Landfall, this would place New Orleans in the highest storm surge area. Models are still having a hard time though as to what will exactly happen once Gustav makes landfall. Some models stall it out over land where it will transition from a Damaging wind, heavy rain, and storm surge threat, to more of a heavy rain and flooding threat. Other models indicate it will curve to the right and go well inland and track up across the country, and some models indicate that it may curve to the Southwest and emerge back over water Southeast, off the Texas coast. Either way this is a dangerous storm, and please monitor the furthest updates from this blog, as well as your local media, and weather outlets.
Gustav Weakens, But Remains A Major Hurricane; Gustav Is Still A Storm Not To Mess Around With, Evacuations And Preparations Need To Be Rushed To Completion...
Hurricane Gustav has weakened since it made landfall over Cuba. The interaction with Cuba has apparently taken a more severe toll on Gustav then expected. Never-the-less Gustav remains a dangerous Category 3 Hurricane. Further strengthening is likely, but no rapid intensification is likely due to the fact that it will be moving over water that's slightly cooler by about 2 - 5 degrees, and some increasing shear. There is an eye but its not very evident on satellite imagery, and the coldest cloud tops are mainly to the southwest of it. With all that said Gustav still remains a major hurricane with sustained winds of 115MPH with gusts to 140MPH. Pressure has just recently dropped a little more to 956 Millibars.
National Weather Service Doppler Radar indicates that outer rain bands continue to effect the Florida Peninsula, and Rain bands will be spreading across the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana over the next several hours. These rain bands will produce squally weather, and wind gusts up to 35MPH. Tropical storm force winds will arrive later tonight. All preparations and evacuations need to be rushed to completion. If you live from the central Louisiana Coast and east at BEST you have 2-5 hours before things start to go downhill. If you live west of the central Louisiana coast to the Louisiana Texas border you have at BEST 5-8 hours before things go downhill. If you did not evacuate and you live along the coast in those areas or up to 50 miles inland you need to rush thing to completion and take cover. Expected storm surge flooding has gone down slightly but still a dangerous 9 - 12 feet with Southeast Louisiana including Lake Pontchartrain seeing storm surge up to 18 feet above normal tide. This is a very dangerous situation.
Computer models continue to indicate a landfall along the south central Louisiana coast. This will allow for the highest storm surge to occur to the east of the Landfall, this would place New Orleans in the highest storm surge area. Models are still having a hard time though as to what will exactly happen once Gustav makes landfall. Some models stall it out over land where it will transition from a Damaging wind, heavy rain, and storm surge threat, to more of a heavy rain and flooding threat. Other models indicate it will curve to the right and go well inland and track up across the country, and some models indicate that it may curve to the Southwest and emerge back over water Southeast, off the Texas coast. Either way this is a dangerous storm, and please monitor the furthest updates from this blog, as well as your local media, and weather outlets.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Gustav Makes Landfall Over Mainland Cuba
GUSTAV UPDATE...
Gustav Makes Landfall Over Mainland Cuba; Further Strengthening Is Likely and Gustav Could Become A Category 5 Hurricane Tomorrow; All Persons In The New Orleans Area, and In The Projected Path Are Urged To Evacuate Now...
Hurricane Gustav has made landfall over mainland Cuba, with sustained winds of 150MPH with gusts to 185MPH. Minimum central pressure is down to 941 millibars. Gustav may weaken slightly as it moves over Cuba, but already the eye is about to emerge back over water, so any weakening should be very minor. Once Gustav is back over open water, Gustav could gain more strength and become a Category 5 hurricane.
Computer models seem to be indicating a slight shift to the east, and this may prove Catastrophic for New Orleans. Right now forecasted storm surge for the eastern half of Louisiana's coast including New Orleans is 12 to 21 feet above normal tide. This is the forecast as of now. If Gustav makes landfall as a strong Category 4 Hurricane which it very well could, storm surge flooding in this area will be up to 25 feet. If you live in New Orleans you are urged to evacuate, if you do not evacuate you are putting your life at extreme risk. Levees will over top with this kind of storm surge, but whether or not they break is another thing. New levees are not even complete and this could prove to be Catastrophic. Stay tuned.
Gustav Makes Landfall Over Mainland Cuba; Further Strengthening Is Likely and Gustav Could Become A Category 5 Hurricane Tomorrow; All Persons In The New Orleans Area, and In The Projected Path Are Urged To Evacuate Now...
Hurricane Gustav has made landfall over mainland Cuba, with sustained winds of 150MPH with gusts to 185MPH. Minimum central pressure is down to 941 millibars. Gustav may weaken slightly as it moves over Cuba, but already the eye is about to emerge back over water, so any weakening should be very minor. Once Gustav is back over open water, Gustav could gain more strength and become a Category 5 hurricane.
Computer models seem to be indicating a slight shift to the east, and this may prove Catastrophic for New Orleans. Right now forecasted storm surge for the eastern half of Louisiana's coast including New Orleans is 12 to 21 feet above normal tide. This is the forecast as of now. If Gustav makes landfall as a strong Category 4 Hurricane which it very well could, storm surge flooding in this area will be up to 25 feet. If you live in New Orleans you are urged to evacuate, if you do not evacuate you are putting your life at extreme risk. Levees will over top with this kind of storm surge, but whether or not they break is another thing. New levees are not even complete and this could prove to be Catastrophic. Stay tuned.
Gustav Nearing Category 5 Strength!
GUSTAV UPDATE...
Gustav Strengthens Even More; Some Additional Strengthening Is Likely Prior To Landfall Over Cuba, and Gustav Could Became a Catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane; If You Live In The Projected Path On the Gulf Coast, Evacuate Now. Do not wait!...
Hurricane Hunters have found that Gustav has strengthened even more, packing extremely dangerous sustained winds of 150MPH, with gusts to 185MPH. The minimum central pressure is now down to 942 millibars. Further strengthening is possible before making landfall over Cuba, and Gustav could become a catastrophic category 5 hurricane. If it does not become a category 5 hurricane prior to landfall over Cuba, then it will likely become a category 5 hurricane once it clears Cuba and emerges into the gulf of Mexico.
Satellite indicates a very nicely defined eye, the eye is fairly good in size, and has also gotten bigger since earlier today, which is a bit worrisome as it will make the path of destruction wider. Gustav once in the Gulf of Mexico could expand its wind fields even more, which would be extremely unfortunate.
Computer models are in fairly good agreement, but some are starting to bring it back east a bit with a track just to the west of New Orleans. If this were true, it has the potential to be even worse then Katrina. Anyone in the projected path needs to get things together and get out, before its too late, especially the City of New Orleans and areas hard hit by Katrina. Stay tuned for further updates.
Gustav Strengthens Even More; Some Additional Strengthening Is Likely Prior To Landfall Over Cuba, and Gustav Could Became a Catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane; If You Live In The Projected Path On the Gulf Coast, Evacuate Now. Do not wait!...
Hurricane Hunters have found that Gustav has strengthened even more, packing extremely dangerous sustained winds of 150MPH, with gusts to 185MPH. The minimum central pressure is now down to 942 millibars. Further strengthening is possible before making landfall over Cuba, and Gustav could become a catastrophic category 5 hurricane. If it does not become a category 5 hurricane prior to landfall over Cuba, then it will likely become a category 5 hurricane once it clears Cuba and emerges into the gulf of Mexico.
Satellite indicates a very nicely defined eye, the eye is fairly good in size, and has also gotten bigger since earlier today, which is a bit worrisome as it will make the path of destruction wider. Gustav once in the Gulf of Mexico could expand its wind fields even more, which would be extremely unfortunate.
Computer models are in fairly good agreement, but some are starting to bring it back east a bit with a track just to the west of New Orleans. If this were true, it has the potential to be even worse then Katrina. Anyone in the projected path needs to get things together and get out, before its too late, especially the City of New Orleans and areas hard hit by Katrina. Stay tuned for further updates.
Gustav Now a Category 4 Hurricane!
GUSTAV UPDATE...
Hurricane Hunters Find Gustav A Very Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane; Some Additional Strengthening Is Likely Prior To Landfall Over Cuba, and Gustav Could Became a Catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane...
At 1:20PM The National Hurricane Center released and update indicating that hurricane hunters have found Gustav to have rapidly intensified again. Gustav is now a very dangerous Category 4 Hurricane, packing a strong sustained punch of 145MPH. Minimum central pressure is down around 944 millibars. Gustav's sustained winds are only 11MPH under a Category 5 Hurricane. Further unfortunate strengthening is likely prior to Landfall in Cuba, and Gustav could very well become a Catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane upon landfall of Cuba. This storm is no longer a storm to mess around with. If you live on the Gulf coast and are in the currently projected path, evacuate, do not wait until its too late. Stay tuned for further update on this very dangerous situation.
Hurricane Hunters Find Gustav A Very Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane; Some Additional Strengthening Is Likely Prior To Landfall Over Cuba, and Gustav Could Became a Catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane...
At 1:20PM The National Hurricane Center released and update indicating that hurricane hunters have found Gustav to have rapidly intensified again. Gustav is now a very dangerous Category 4 Hurricane, packing a strong sustained punch of 145MPH. Minimum central pressure is down around 944 millibars. Gustav's sustained winds are only 11MPH under a Category 5 Hurricane. Further unfortunate strengthening is likely prior to Landfall in Cuba, and Gustav could very well become a Catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane upon landfall of Cuba. This storm is no longer a storm to mess around with. If you live on the Gulf coast and are in the currently projected path, evacuate, do not wait until its too late. Stay tuned for further update on this very dangerous situation.
Gustav Becomes A Major Hurricane
GUSTAV UPDATE...
Hurricane Gustav Now a Major Category 3 Hurricane; Additional Strengthening Is Likely...
First before I start this post, I have made a mistake the past several posts. I have been saying Gustav will likely become the First Major Hurricane of the season, however it will be the second major hurricane of the season. I had forgotten about Hurricane Bertha, this is because Hurricane Bertha never affected any land. So Gustav will likely be the first major hurricane to affect land.
So now onto information about Gustav. At 6AM this morning hurricane hunters found that Gustav had strengthened into a minimal major Hurricane. As of the 11AM advisory Gustav has continued to intensify and is packing sustained winds of 125MPH with gusts to 155MPH. Minimum central pressure is down to 954 millibars.
Satellite trends have indicated that Gustav has jogged slightly to the North. Slight deviations like that are fairly common in Large Hurricane. So additional wobbles along its track are likely. They need to be watched though, because they can have a significant impact on track and landfall.
Computer models have came into significantly well agreement. It looks like Gustav will make landfall somewhere on the South-Central Coast of Louisiana. This is the current forecast, however as Gustav approaches Louisiana it appears it will slow down significantly, which would cause major flooding problems. As far as intensity goes, Gustav will continue to intensify until it strikes Cuba, and then once into the Gulf of Mexico further strengthening is likely, and some additional rapid strengthening is not out of the question. Gustav could potential gain Category 5 strength for a short period of time. As far as intensity goes at landfall it depends on how fast it moves ashore. If it slows down significantly then land will have a longer time to batter the storm prior to landfall. If it comes ashore fast, then land wont have as much of a chance to weaken it. So Gustav could very well be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall. If you live in the path, it is recommended you evacuate. Stay tuned for further updates...
Hurricane Gustav Now a Major Category 3 Hurricane; Additional Strengthening Is Likely...
First before I start this post, I have made a mistake the past several posts. I have been saying Gustav will likely become the First Major Hurricane of the season, however it will be the second major hurricane of the season. I had forgotten about Hurricane Bertha, this is because Hurricane Bertha never affected any land. So Gustav will likely be the first major hurricane to affect land.
So now onto information about Gustav. At 6AM this morning hurricane hunters found that Gustav had strengthened into a minimal major Hurricane. As of the 11AM advisory Gustav has continued to intensify and is packing sustained winds of 125MPH with gusts to 155MPH. Minimum central pressure is down to 954 millibars.
Satellite trends have indicated that Gustav has jogged slightly to the North. Slight deviations like that are fairly common in Large Hurricane. So additional wobbles along its track are likely. They need to be watched though, because they can have a significant impact on track and landfall.
Computer models have came into significantly well agreement. It looks like Gustav will make landfall somewhere on the South-Central Coast of Louisiana. This is the current forecast, however as Gustav approaches Louisiana it appears it will slow down significantly, which would cause major flooding problems. As far as intensity goes, Gustav will continue to intensify until it strikes Cuba, and then once into the Gulf of Mexico further strengthening is likely, and some additional rapid strengthening is not out of the question. Gustav could potential gain Category 5 strength for a short period of time. As far as intensity goes at landfall it depends on how fast it moves ashore. If it slows down significantly then land will have a longer time to batter the storm prior to landfall. If it comes ashore fast, then land wont have as much of a chance to weaken it. So Gustav could very well be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall. If you live in the path, it is recommended you evacuate. Stay tuned for further updates...
Gustav Explodes In The Caribbean
GUSTAV UPDATE...
Hurricane Gustav Explodes In The Caribbean; Will Likely Become The First Major Hurricane Of The Season By Later This Morning...
Shortly after the 2AM intermediate advisory update, Hurricane hunters found that Gustav has strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane, packing sustained winds of 100MPH with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure is around 970 Millibars. Gustav will likely become the first major hurricane of this hurricane season, by later this morning. Stay tuned for further updates.
Hurricane Gustav Explodes In The Caribbean; Will Likely Become The First Major Hurricane Of The Season By Later This Morning...
Shortly after the 2AM intermediate advisory update, Hurricane hunters found that Gustav has strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane, packing sustained winds of 100MPH with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure is around 970 Millibars. Gustav will likely become the first major hurricane of this hurricane season, by later this morning. Stay tuned for further updates.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Gustav Strengthens; Hanna Remains The Same
GUSTAV UPDATE...
Hurricane Gustav Strengthens...
Hurricane Gustav is now packing sustained winds of 80MPH with gusts to 95MPH. Minimum central pressure is down to 974 millibars. Gustav is moving to the Northwest at 10MPH.
Surprisingly the eye has not became as defined as expected on conventional satellite imagery. Hurricane hunters though have said there is an eye and its 25 nautical miles wide. Over the last several satellite images the cloud tops in the center have been warming, and the eye should become very well defined over the next 6 - 12 hours on conventional satellite imagery. Hurricane Gustav will continue to steadily strengthen and some rapid intensification is possible. Gustav still looks likely to become the first major hurricane of the season. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting it to get up to a peak intensity of 132MPH which is a Devastating Category 4 Hurricane. It would not be a surprise to see Gustav become a Category 5 Hurricane for a short period of time.
Computer models continue to indicate that a landfall will likely occur from the Texas/ Louisiana border, to the Alabama/ Florida border. The center which is still hard to forecast a landfall for, due to the fact there is still a lot of time left, looks to move ashore on the South-Central coast of Louisiana. Even though this track does not bring it directly over New Orleans, it is still close enough to cause extensive damaged, and with unfinished levees around the city this could be Catastrophic. If the the center moved on land a bit closer to New Orleans then it without a doubt would cause unbelievable devastation for the City. People in New Orleans need to pack up necessities and evacuate. Do not risk your life, because you think Gustav wont strike the area. Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. Unfortunately the worst looks to happen. Please don't take this lightly and please don't wait until its too late...
HANNA UPDATE...
Tropical Storm Hanna remains at its same intensity. Pressure appears to be a bit higher, so its not intensifying. Hanna remains with sustained winds of 50MPH with higher gusts. Hanna is continuing to experience some shear from a weakening upper level low to the west of Hanna. Slight intensification is likely over the next several days and Hanna could become a minimal hurricane in a couple days. Hanna is expected to move toward the northwest and then stall out and move erratically in about 72 - 96 hours. Stay tuned for further updates on both tropical systems. At this point though Gustav will remain the priority.
Hurricane Gustav Strengthens...
Hurricane Gustav is now packing sustained winds of 80MPH with gusts to 95MPH. Minimum central pressure is down to 974 millibars. Gustav is moving to the Northwest at 10MPH.
Surprisingly the eye has not became as defined as expected on conventional satellite imagery. Hurricane hunters though have said there is an eye and its 25 nautical miles wide. Over the last several satellite images the cloud tops in the center have been warming, and the eye should become very well defined over the next 6 - 12 hours on conventional satellite imagery. Hurricane Gustav will continue to steadily strengthen and some rapid intensification is possible. Gustav still looks likely to become the first major hurricane of the season. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting it to get up to a peak intensity of 132MPH which is a Devastating Category 4 Hurricane. It would not be a surprise to see Gustav become a Category 5 Hurricane for a short period of time.
Computer models continue to indicate that a landfall will likely occur from the Texas/ Louisiana border, to the Alabama/ Florida border. The center which is still hard to forecast a landfall for, due to the fact there is still a lot of time left, looks to move ashore on the South-Central coast of Louisiana. Even though this track does not bring it directly over New Orleans, it is still close enough to cause extensive damaged, and with unfinished levees around the city this could be Catastrophic. If the the center moved on land a bit closer to New Orleans then it without a doubt would cause unbelievable devastation for the City. People in New Orleans need to pack up necessities and evacuate. Do not risk your life, because you think Gustav wont strike the area. Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. Unfortunately the worst looks to happen. Please don't take this lightly and please don't wait until its too late...
HANNA UPDATE...
Tropical Storm Hanna remains at its same intensity. Pressure appears to be a bit higher, so its not intensifying. Hanna remains with sustained winds of 50MPH with higher gusts. Hanna is continuing to experience some shear from a weakening upper level low to the west of Hanna. Slight intensification is likely over the next several days and Hanna could become a minimal hurricane in a couple days. Hanna is expected to move toward the northwest and then stall out and move erratically in about 72 - 96 hours. Stay tuned for further updates on both tropical systems. At this point though Gustav will remain the priority.
Gustav Regains Hurricane Strength
UPDATE...
Just a quick update to the previous post. Hurricane hunters have found that Gustav is becoming much better organized and sustained winds are now at 75MPH this makes Gustav a hurricane once again. The Hurricane hunter aircraft has indicated that winds could be higher then 75MPH, but further investigation will need to occur before they up the intensity of the winds...
Also just a quick mention on Tropical Storm Hanna, she has became more organized with sustained winds at 50MPH. This storm is not expected to have a substantial impact on land over the next 120 hours, so updates on Hanna will be more sporadic until Gustav makes Landfall on the Gulf Coast. Stay tuned.
Just a quick update to the previous post. Hurricane hunters have found that Gustav is becoming much better organized and sustained winds are now at 75MPH this makes Gustav a hurricane once again. The Hurricane hunter aircraft has indicated that winds could be higher then 75MPH, but further investigation will need to occur before they up the intensity of the winds...
Also just a quick mention on Tropical Storm Hanna, she has became more organized with sustained winds at 50MPH. This storm is not expected to have a substantial impact on land over the next 120 hours, so updates on Hanna will be more sporadic until Gustav makes Landfall on the Gulf Coast. Stay tuned.
Gustav Clears Jamaica; Intensification Underway
GUSTAV UPDATE...
A potential catastrophic situation is unfolding for the Gulf Coast...
Currently Tropical Storm Gustav has sustained winds of 70MPH and is intensifying. Minimum central pressure is down to 984 Millibars. Also of interest is Gustav's wind field has been expanding. This is worrisome only because not only is it intensifying but with the wind field expanding this will leave a wider path of potential destruction. Visible Satellite indicates that an eye is attempting to form. This eye feature should have success in becoming more defined over the next several hours, this also would likely indicate strengthening. Outflow is good in all quadrants of the Hurricane, and Sea Surface Temperatures are at a "high octane" level. So Gustav has the potential to rapidly intensify.
Computer models continue to be in fair agreement. At this point in time it looks like Gustav will make a landfall over South-Central Coast of Louisiana. Now even though this means its not going to be directly over New Orleans, the core of strongest will be very close, and with New Orleans being in the right front quadrant of the soon to be Hurricane Gustav, this means storm surge flooding will push in from the Ocean up in through the bays and channels and into Lake Pontchartrain. This is actually more significant then Hurricane Katrina which came in from the South-Southeast which did not allow for optimal storm surge flooding into Lake Pontchartrain. But that was still a Catastrophic situation. With levees not even finished and the potential of New Orleans being in the right front quadrant of this hurricane, and the fact it could make Landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane, this has the potential to be Catastrophic for the still damaged New Orleans.
The final thing I am going to cover is the inevitable. If you live along the Gulf Coast from the Texas/ Louisiana border to the Alabama/ Florida border, you need to prepare for evacuation. If you live in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama in areas hit by Hurricane Katrina you should be getting things ready to evacuate, and if you live in New Orleans, it is recommended that you begin to evacuate today. More information is coming in right now, so stay tuned for an updated post.
A potential catastrophic situation is unfolding for the Gulf Coast...
Currently Tropical Storm Gustav has sustained winds of 70MPH and is intensifying. Minimum central pressure is down to 984 Millibars. Also of interest is Gustav's wind field has been expanding. This is worrisome only because not only is it intensifying but with the wind field expanding this will leave a wider path of potential destruction. Visible Satellite indicates that an eye is attempting to form. This eye feature should have success in becoming more defined over the next several hours, this also would likely indicate strengthening. Outflow is good in all quadrants of the Hurricane, and Sea Surface Temperatures are at a "high octane" level. So Gustav has the potential to rapidly intensify.
Computer models continue to be in fair agreement. At this point in time it looks like Gustav will make a landfall over South-Central Coast of Louisiana. Now even though this means its not going to be directly over New Orleans, the core of strongest will be very close, and with New Orleans being in the right front quadrant of the soon to be Hurricane Gustav, this means storm surge flooding will push in from the Ocean up in through the bays and channels and into Lake Pontchartrain. This is actually more significant then Hurricane Katrina which came in from the South-Southeast which did not allow for optimal storm surge flooding into Lake Pontchartrain. But that was still a Catastrophic situation. With levees not even finished and the potential of New Orleans being in the right front quadrant of this hurricane, and the fact it could make Landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane, this has the potential to be Catastrophic for the still damaged New Orleans.
The final thing I am going to cover is the inevitable. If you live along the Gulf Coast from the Texas/ Louisiana border to the Alabama/ Florida border, you need to prepare for evacuation. If you live in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama in areas hit by Hurricane Katrina you should be getting things ready to evacuate, and if you live in New Orleans, it is recommended that you begin to evacuate today. More information is coming in right now, so stay tuned for an updated post.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Gustav Makes Landfall over Jamaica; Tropical Storm Hanna Forms
GUSTAV UPDATE...
Strong Tropical Storm Gustav continues to move west, and makes Landfall over the eastern tip of Jamaica. Current winds are sustained at 70MPH with gusts to 85MPH. Minimum central pressure is down to 985 millibars. Gustav may remain the same strength or slightly weaken while over Jamaica, but once Gustav is clear of Jamaica it will steadily intensify. I would not be surprised to see some rapid intensification at times. Gustav will likely become the first major hurricane of the season as it churns into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday Night.
Models are in fair agreement, but they all seem to switch its track quite a bit each model run. One run shows the track further to the west, another run shows the track further to the east. So the exact landfall for the United States will be tricky. But I will continue to say the Gulf coast from the Texas/ Louisiana Border to the Alabama/ Florida border need to monitor this storm very closely, of most concern is New Orleans. If a landfall occurs near where Hurricane Katrina made landfall, the result could be catastrophic. Now I am not saying to pack up your things and leave if you are along the above mentioned coast line, or New Orleans, but please stay up-to-date on this situation. You should at least think out what you will do if it becomes more certain Gustav will make landfall in the mentioned area. Even if this Hurricane does not make landfall in the above mentioned areas, there is still nothing wrong with making sure you become educated on hurricanes, and Hurricane Preparedness. For information on Hurricane Preparedness please visit the following link Hurricane Preparedness Information
TROPICAL STORM HANNA...
Earlier today Tropical Depression Eight became Tropical Storm Hanna. This storm is located 260 miles Northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Hanna is moving the the West-Northwest at around 12MPH. At this point models bring Hanna to approx. 500 Miles East of West Palm Beach Florida in about 120 hours. Between 96 hours and 120 hours Hanna is expected to stall out. Where it will move after is unknown. Right now most concern is on Gustav. Stay tuned.
Strong Tropical Storm Gustav continues to move west, and makes Landfall over the eastern tip of Jamaica. Current winds are sustained at 70MPH with gusts to 85MPH. Minimum central pressure is down to 985 millibars. Gustav may remain the same strength or slightly weaken while over Jamaica, but once Gustav is clear of Jamaica it will steadily intensify. I would not be surprised to see some rapid intensification at times. Gustav will likely become the first major hurricane of the season as it churns into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday Night.
Models are in fair agreement, but they all seem to switch its track quite a bit each model run. One run shows the track further to the west, another run shows the track further to the east. So the exact landfall for the United States will be tricky. But I will continue to say the Gulf coast from the Texas/ Louisiana Border to the Alabama/ Florida border need to monitor this storm very closely, of most concern is New Orleans. If a landfall occurs near where Hurricane Katrina made landfall, the result could be catastrophic. Now I am not saying to pack up your things and leave if you are along the above mentioned coast line, or New Orleans, but please stay up-to-date on this situation. You should at least think out what you will do if it becomes more certain Gustav will make landfall in the mentioned area. Even if this Hurricane does not make landfall in the above mentioned areas, there is still nothing wrong with making sure you become educated on hurricanes, and Hurricane Preparedness. For information on Hurricane Preparedness please visit the following link Hurricane Preparedness Information
TROPICAL STORM HANNA...
Earlier today Tropical Depression Eight became Tropical Storm Hanna. This storm is located 260 miles Northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Hanna is moving the the West-Northwest at around 12MPH. At this point models bring Hanna to approx. 500 Miles East of West Palm Beach Florida in about 120 hours. Between 96 hours and 120 hours Hanna is expected to stall out. Where it will move after is unknown. Right now most concern is on Gustav. Stay tuned.
Gustav Rapidly Intensifies Again
Update...
Very quick update I need to get to work. Tropical storm Gustav which was at a minimal Tropical storm last night, due to its landfall over Haiti and then stalling out there, allowing the land to tear Gustav apart. Gustav is now back to rapidly intensifying and is now almost a Hurricane one again. Sustained winds are near 70MPH with higher gusts, and the minimum central pressure is down to 988 millibars, at 11PM last night the sustained winds were 45MPH and the pressure was only 999 millibars. I will update further when I get home from work. Stay tuned.
Also a quick note, that Tropical Depression 8 has formed in the Atlantic. This storm may head for Florida, more updates to come later.
Very quick update I need to get to work. Tropical storm Gustav which was at a minimal Tropical storm last night, due to its landfall over Haiti and then stalling out there, allowing the land to tear Gustav apart. Gustav is now back to rapidly intensifying and is now almost a Hurricane one again. Sustained winds are near 70MPH with higher gusts, and the minimum central pressure is down to 988 millibars, at 11PM last night the sustained winds were 45MPH and the pressure was only 999 millibars. I will update further when I get home from work. Stay tuned.
Also a quick note, that Tropical Depression 8 has formed in the Atlantic. This storm may head for Florida, more updates to come later.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Gustav Weakens To A Tropical Storm
Update...
Gustav has now weakened back down to a tropical storm. This is due to Gustav making landfall over Haiti today. The center is now back over water, and should begin to restrengthen, especially as it moves west-northwestward, and away from land. Models eventually bring Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico, and strengthen it significantly. In fact the GHM model brings Gustav to a Category 5 in the Central Gulf of Mexico, and the HWRF brings Gustav to a Category 4 Hurricane in the Central Gulf of Mexico. But its still very early to say it will be a Category 5. I will say though the likelihood of this becoming the first major hurricane of the season (Category 3 or higher) is high. The gulf Coast from the Texas/ Louisiana Border, to the Alabama/ Florida Border need to monitor this situation closely.
Gustav has now weakened back down to a tropical storm. This is due to Gustav making landfall over Haiti today. The center is now back over water, and should begin to restrengthen, especially as it moves west-northwestward, and away from land. Models eventually bring Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico, and strengthen it significantly. In fact the GHM model brings Gustav to a Category 5 in the Central Gulf of Mexico, and the HWRF brings Gustav to a Category 4 Hurricane in the Central Gulf of Mexico. But its still very early to say it will be a Category 5. I will say though the likelihood of this becoming the first major hurricane of the season (Category 3 or higher) is high. The gulf Coast from the Texas/ Louisiana Border, to the Alabama/ Florida Border need to monitor this situation closely.
Gustav Makes Its First Landfall Over Haiti
Gustav has not strengthened since earlier this morning, and should begin to weaken as it encounters Haiti. The weakening however will be short lived. The past several satellite frames show signs of slight disorganization, due to interaction with land. Once Gustav clears Haiti it will then restrengthen and could become the first Major hurricane of this hurricane season.
Models continue to very slowly come in to better agreement on a track, bringing it back over water moving in a more west-northwest direction, south of eastern Cuba, and then to a more Northwest direction and then over the far western tip of Cuba, allowing it into the Central Gulf Of Mexico where strengthening will likely continue. No attempt at an official landfall forecast for the Gulf Coast yet, because it is still too far out to determine. But I will say as stated from the very first post on this system, that the Gulf Coast needs to watch this one closely, especially From Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. This could be especially catastrophic for the areas ravaged by Hurricane Katrina, Such as New Orleans. Please stay tuned to this situation.
Models continue to very slowly come in to better agreement on a track, bringing it back over water moving in a more west-northwest direction, south of eastern Cuba, and then to a more Northwest direction and then over the far western tip of Cuba, allowing it into the Central Gulf Of Mexico where strengthening will likely continue. No attempt at an official landfall forecast for the Gulf Coast yet, because it is still too far out to determine. But I will say as stated from the very first post on this system, that the Gulf Coast needs to watch this one closely, especially From Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. This could be especially catastrophic for the areas ravaged by Hurricane Katrina, Such as New Orleans. Please stay tuned to this situation.
Gustav Continues To Strengthen
Just a quick update, because I have to head to work. Tropical Storm Gustav was upgraded to a hurricane overnight, and is now nearing Category 2 strength. Currently sustained winds are at 90MPH with gusts up to 105MPH. Sustained winds have to reach 96MPH for Gustav to be a Category 2 Hurricane, this will likely happen over the next several hours prior to its landfall over Haiti. Minimum central pressure has also dropped down to 981 millibars. Stay tuned for further updates.
I am off to work!! Enjoy the day people!
I am off to work!! Enjoy the day people!
Monday, August 25, 2008
Tropical Storm Gustav Strengthens
&nsbp Although infrared satellite does not seem to show an impressive storm as earlier, the cloud cover overall has become better organized and now Gustav is 4 MPH away from being a Category 1 hurricane. Minimum central pressure has also dropped another 6 millibars since earlier, which is also a sign of strengthening. Sustained winds are at 70MPH, with higher gusts, and additional strengthening is expected prior to Gustav's landfall or near landfall over Haiti.
Models are slowly coming into better agreement, and it brings Gustav over Haiti and just off the southern Coast of Cuba and then into the Gulf of Mexico. As stated before all persons along the Gulf Coast should monitor Gustav closely. Yes this is still many days away. But there is very real possibility this storm could make landfall on the gulf coast, of most concern is Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and The Florida Panhandle. Gustav will likely become the first Major hurricane of this season.
Models are slowly coming into better agreement, and it brings Gustav over Haiti and just off the southern Coast of Cuba and then into the Gulf of Mexico. As stated before all persons along the Gulf Coast should monitor Gustav closely. Yes this is still many days away. But there is very real possibility this storm could make landfall on the gulf coast, of most concern is Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and The Florida Panhandle. Gustav will likely become the first Major hurricane of this season.
Tropical Storm Gustav Forms
As I stated last night the next tropical system would likely officially be named today, and it sure has. The tropical wave was found to have a closed circulation this morning, and was named a Tropical Depression around 11AM. Since 11AM the depression has rapidly intensified to a strong tropical storm. Sustained winds are now at 60MPH with higher gusts. That is up from 35MPH at 11am This morning! The current pressure is 996mb compared to this mornings 1006mb pressure reading.
Although the last few frames of the infrared satellite loop is showing some warming cloud tops, this storm will likely become a hurricane by later tonight. The circulation is extremely well defined. Upper air, and surface condition indicate further strengthening is likely. With the isolated chance of some additional rapid intensification. Models may continue to be all over the place but they indicate movement in a general Northwest direction. So I will continue to say, Gulf Coast States watch this one closely, including Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and The Florida Panhandle. Yes I know its far fetched and models cant even really determine where its going, but in a very extended forecast, the above mentioned area looks to be the most likely place for a landfall. This also maybe out first major hurricane of the season. Please don't feel I am trying to hype it up to more then what it will be. But I want to give as much trustworthy advanced warning as possible, and this is what I see at this time. Please stay tunned for further updates.
Although the last few frames of the infrared satellite loop is showing some warming cloud tops, this storm will likely become a hurricane by later tonight. The circulation is extremely well defined. Upper air, and surface condition indicate further strengthening is likely. With the isolated chance of some additional rapid intensification. Models may continue to be all over the place but they indicate movement in a general Northwest direction. So I will continue to say, Gulf Coast States watch this one closely, including Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and The Florida Panhandle. Yes I know its far fetched and models cant even really determine where its going, but in a very extended forecast, the above mentioned area looks to be the most likely place for a landfall. This also maybe out first major hurricane of the season. Please don't feel I am trying to hype it up to more then what it will be. But I want to give as much trustworthy advanced warning as possible, and this is what I see at this time. Please stay tunned for further updates.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Time To Talk Tropics; Is That You Gustav?
Hey Everyone,
So far everything has been local but I want to switch to a little farther away, and focus on some tropical weather. I didn't post anything on Tropical Storm Fay because it was not that intense, although the amounts of rain it dropped was absolutely extreme. Anyway fay is continuing to weaken and dry up over Louisiana. What I want to talk about next is what will likely be the next tropical depression, and next named storm. The name would be Gustav.
Currently what they're calling a wave of low pressure is producing some fairly intense convection over the Southeastern Caribbean. The center is obviously not well defined as stated by the National Hurricane Center, however upper level winds will continue to be favorable for development, and convection has continuously been firing up, closer to the forecasted center of low pressure, and what appears to be a developing outflow area. Sea surface temperatures are also very conducive for development. This will likely officially become the next tropical system sometime tomorrow.
Models for this area of low pressure area are all over the place. But it appears that it will move up into the Northwestern Caribbean in about 3 days. Then models are all over the place. None agree on remotely the same track. And of course this is extremely way to early to call it, but I will say it first...Gulf Coast states watch this one closely.
Here is the most up to date satellite image on the above mentioned system...
So far everything has been local but I want to switch to a little farther away, and focus on some tropical weather. I didn't post anything on Tropical Storm Fay because it was not that intense, although the amounts of rain it dropped was absolutely extreme. Anyway fay is continuing to weaken and dry up over Louisiana. What I want to talk about next is what will likely be the next tropical depression, and next named storm. The name would be Gustav.
Currently what they're calling a wave of low pressure is producing some fairly intense convection over the Southeastern Caribbean. The center is obviously not well defined as stated by the National Hurricane Center, however upper level winds will continue to be favorable for development, and convection has continuously been firing up, closer to the forecasted center of low pressure, and what appears to be a developing outflow area. Sea surface temperatures are also very conducive for development. This will likely officially become the next tropical system sometime tomorrow.
Models for this area of low pressure area are all over the place. But it appears that it will move up into the Northwestern Caribbean in about 3 days. Then models are all over the place. None agree on remotely the same track. And of course this is extremely way to early to call it, but I will say it first...Gulf Coast states watch this one closely.
Here is the most up to date satellite image on the above mentioned system...
Saturday, August 9, 2008
Here We Go Again...Do I Even Need To Mention What It Is!?
OVERVIEW:
I am really not going to get into extreme detail about the rain we have had over the past several weeks. As you know though, we have had a lot of rain, up to 8-15 inches of rain, across much of the region. And unfortunately this rainy streak that we had a break from today, will not be the case for tomorrow. We will be back under the influence of an upper level low pressure system for tomorrow being Sunday and also on Monday. The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Clinton, and Essex Counties in Vermont, and All of Vermont, except for Bennington, and Windham Counties.
The state has been hit by sporadic flash flooding over the past week, and hardest hit has been Addison County Vermont, where devastating Flash Floods took place. Once again this area looks to be under the gun. The National weather service is saying that 1 - 2 inches of rain will fall from this system over the entire area with isolated higher totals in any thunderstorms that form due to them moving very slowly. I don't agree on this, looking at radar trends, and model guidance to me Central and Southern Vermont will have the best chance for any Flash Flooding, and will have a chance of 1 - 2 inches of rain. From what I see the heaviest rain will fall along and well south of a line from Central St. Lawrence County, NY to Southern Franklin County, NY, to much of Essex County, NY across the lake into Addison, Orange, and Central and Southern Washington Counties in Vermont, across the Connecticut river into Southern Grafton County, NH across all of Belknap County, NH and much of Strafford County, NH.
I have not made up any maps for this post. I will likely not get any more posts in until late tomorrow night, or perhaps Monday, as I am going to be in my brothers wedding tomorrow. There is a slight chance I can get one in early tomorrow morning, but that's about it. Never-the-less stay tuned to your local media, and weather outlets as well as this blog, for further updates.
I am really not going to get into extreme detail about the rain we have had over the past several weeks. As you know though, we have had a lot of rain, up to 8-15 inches of rain, across much of the region. And unfortunately this rainy streak that we had a break from today, will not be the case for tomorrow. We will be back under the influence of an upper level low pressure system for tomorrow being Sunday and also on Monday. The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Clinton, and Essex Counties in Vermont, and All of Vermont, except for Bennington, and Windham Counties.
The state has been hit by sporadic flash flooding over the past week, and hardest hit has been Addison County Vermont, where devastating Flash Floods took place. Once again this area looks to be under the gun. The National weather service is saying that 1 - 2 inches of rain will fall from this system over the entire area with isolated higher totals in any thunderstorms that form due to them moving very slowly. I don't agree on this, looking at radar trends, and model guidance to me Central and Southern Vermont will have the best chance for any Flash Flooding, and will have a chance of 1 - 2 inches of rain. From what I see the heaviest rain will fall along and well south of a line from Central St. Lawrence County, NY to Southern Franklin County, NY, to much of Essex County, NY across the lake into Addison, Orange, and Central and Southern Washington Counties in Vermont, across the Connecticut river into Southern Grafton County, NH across all of Belknap County, NH and much of Strafford County, NH.
I have not made up any maps for this post. I will likely not get any more posts in until late tomorrow night, or perhaps Monday, as I am going to be in my brothers wedding tomorrow. There is a slight chance I can get one in early tomorrow morning, but that's about it. Never-the-less stay tuned to your local media, and weather outlets as well as this blog, for further updates.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
UPDATE: New Hampshire Upgrades Flood Watch To A Flash Flood Watch
Update...
The National Weather Service in Grey, Maine has upgraded the Flood Watch to a more serious Flash Flood Watch. They have also expanded the coverage of the watch. It now covers nearly all of New Hampshire. 4 Counties in New Hampshire are not in a Flash Flood Watch. Strafford, and Rockingham Counties are under a Flood Watch, and Hillsborough, and Cheshire Counties are under no alerts at this time. This may change though by tomorrow morning.
Across Vermont, A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all but Grand Isle, Bennington, and Windham Counties. The two southern most counties being Bennington, and Windham, may be under a Flash Flood Watch by tomorrow morning. For Grand Isle County no Flash Flood Watch should be issued because there are not many streams in the Islands, and its fairly flat.
Across Northern New York, a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday for Clinton, Essex, St. Lawerence, and Franklin Counties, excluding the St. Lawrence Valley.
Light to occasionaly moderate and heavy rain will continue to weaken until tomorrow morning, when more widespread showers and thunderstorms develop. Stay tuned for further updates. Below is an updated, current National Weather Service Alerts Map...
The National Weather Service in Grey, Maine has upgraded the Flood Watch to a more serious Flash Flood Watch. They have also expanded the coverage of the watch. It now covers nearly all of New Hampshire. 4 Counties in New Hampshire are not in a Flash Flood Watch. Strafford, and Rockingham Counties are under a Flood Watch, and Hillsborough, and Cheshire Counties are under no alerts at this time. This may change though by tomorrow morning.
Across Vermont, A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all but Grand Isle, Bennington, and Windham Counties. The two southern most counties being Bennington, and Windham, may be under a Flash Flood Watch by tomorrow morning. For Grand Isle County no Flash Flood Watch should be issued because there are not many streams in the Islands, and its fairly flat.
Across Northern New York, a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday for Clinton, Essex, St. Lawerence, and Franklin Counties, excluding the St. Lawrence Valley.
Light to occasionaly moderate and heavy rain will continue to weaken until tomorrow morning, when more widespread showers and thunderstorms develop. Stay tuned for further updates. Below is an updated, current National Weather Service Alerts Map...
UPDATE: Additional Flood Alerts Issued
Update...
`The National Weather Service has issued several more flood alerts. At this time a Flood Advisory has been issued for Southeastn Addison, Southwestern Washington, West Central Orange, Northwestern Windsor, and Northeastern Rutland Counties. An area of moderate rain with embedded thunderstorms producing heavy rain is moving across the above mentioned areas. Doppler radar indicates a small area of 1 - 2.5 inches of rain has fallen across the above mentioned areas over the past 1 - 2 hours. The rain is being closely monitored for the potential issuance of Flash Flood Warnings. An update National Weather Service Current Alerts Map, and an update Flood Potential Map has been posted below. Stay tuned for further updates...
`The National Weather Service has issued several more flood alerts. At this time a Flood Advisory has been issued for Southeastn Addison, Southwestern Washington, West Central Orange, Northwestern Windsor, and Northeastern Rutland Counties. An area of moderate rain with embedded thunderstorms producing heavy rain is moving across the above mentioned areas. Doppler radar indicates a small area of 1 - 2.5 inches of rain has fallen across the above mentioned areas over the past 1 - 2 hours. The rain is being closely monitored for the potential issuance of Flash Flood Warnings. An update National Weather Service Current Alerts Map, and an update Flood Potential Map has been posted below. Stay tuned for further updates...
UPDATE: Flash Flooding Continues
Update...
The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued a few more Flash Flood Warnings, as well as a flood advisory for Essex County, New York. For New Hampshire the National Weather Service in Grey, Maine has issued Flood Warnings, and Flash Flood Warnings. For Bennington County, Vermont the National Weather Service out of Albany, New York has issued a flood advisory. Many of these areas are already under a flash flood watch or flood watch.
Doppler radar indicated heavy rain continuing over portions of Northern New York, and Northern, and Western Vermont. Of most concern at this time is Southern Essex County, New York, and Southern Addison County Vermont. This is where significant flash flooding occurred yesterday, and very heavy rains are moving back into this region. Rainfall rates of up to 1.5 inches per hour are moving slowly across that area. This area will continue to be monitored very closely for the possibility of a Flood Advisory or Flash Flood Warning. Stay tuned for further updates.
Below is an updated current alerts map...
The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued a few more Flash Flood Warnings, as well as a flood advisory for Essex County, New York. For New Hampshire the National Weather Service in Grey, Maine has issued Flood Warnings, and Flash Flood Warnings. For Bennington County, Vermont the National Weather Service out of Albany, New York has issued a flood advisory. Many of these areas are already under a flash flood watch or flood watch.
Doppler radar indicated heavy rain continuing over portions of Northern New York, and Northern, and Western Vermont. Of most concern at this time is Southern Essex County, New York, and Southern Addison County Vermont. This is where significant flash flooding occurred yesterday, and very heavy rains are moving back into this region. Rainfall rates of up to 1.5 inches per hour are moving slowly across that area. This area will continue to be monitored very closely for the possibility of a Flood Advisory or Flash Flood Warning. Stay tuned for further updates.
Below is an updated current alerts map...
Flash Flooding Likely; Mud Slides Possible
OVERVIEW:
This isn't going to be too long of a post because I have to leave, but I will get a more detailed post up later. As you all know significant rainfall over Northern New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire has led to saturated ground. Widespread heavy rain fell over portions of Northern New York, Northern, and Central Vermont, and much of New Hampshire. More showers and thunderstorms are occurring right now, and more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur on Friday.
Right now Flash Flood Warnings are out for portions of Washington, Caledonia, Orange, Essex, Windsor, and Windham Counties. Below you will see where the flash flood warnings are in effect. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for much of Vermont, and Much of Northern New York. A Flood watch is in effect for Northern New Hampshire. This is a very serious situation, any rainfall amounts of 3 inches or greater from slow moving storms, across the most saturated areas could lead to major flash flooding, and the potential of mudslides in the steepest of terrain. In Northern New Hampshire a couple minor mudslides were reported yesterday. Check out the maps below and stay tuned to your local weather and media outlets, and this blog...
This isn't going to be too long of a post because I have to leave, but I will get a more detailed post up later. As you all know significant rainfall over Northern New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire has led to saturated ground. Widespread heavy rain fell over portions of Northern New York, Northern, and Central Vermont, and much of New Hampshire. More showers and thunderstorms are occurring right now, and more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur on Friday.
Right now Flash Flood Warnings are out for portions of Washington, Caledonia, Orange, Essex, Windsor, and Windham Counties. Below you will see where the flash flood warnings are in effect. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for much of Vermont, and Much of Northern New York. A Flood watch is in effect for Northern New Hampshire. This is a very serious situation, any rainfall amounts of 3 inches or greater from slow moving storms, across the most saturated areas could lead to major flash flooding, and the potential of mudslides in the steepest of terrain. In Northern New Hampshire a couple minor mudslides were reported yesterday. Check out the maps below and stay tuned to your local weather and media outlets, and this blog...
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
UPDATE: All Flood Alerts Dropped, Doesnt Mean Good News Though
Update...
Today was quite a day as far as weather is concerned. Widespread .50 - 1.25 inches of rain has fallen across Northern New York, and Northern Vermont. Across Central and Northeast Vermont, as well as Southern St. Lawrence, Southern Franklin, and most of Essex County New York has seen widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with scattered areas of 3-4 inches and isolated areas of up to 5 inches of rain. These heavier amounts produced some significant Flash Flooding. The hardest hit county was Addison County, more specific is the Southern portion of the County. Doppler radar estimates that 3 - 5 inches fell across the southern portions of Addison County. These amounts resulted in widespread road washouts/ closures, as well as some evacuations. Damage across that area is astonishing.
All Flood Alerts have been dropped. No warnings, watches, or advisories are in effect. This will likely change though by tomorrow. More on this in a moment.
National Weather Service Doppler radar is showing some light to occasionally moderate rain over North-Central, and Northeast Vermont. With another area of strong thunderstorms over extreme Southwest St. Lawrence County in Northern New York. Showers should remain concentrated across Northeast Vermont, and should taper off overnight. The drying wont last more then several hours, as more showers and thunderstorms develop from late morning Thursday on. These showers and thunderstorms are predicted to be fairly widespread, and slow moving. This with all the rain today, and in past weeks will lead to significant runoff and the threat for flash flooding. Of most concern is Addison County in Vermont. As only around an inch in one hour will cause some problems. If these storms drop 2 - 3 inches in a couple of hours which they have the potential to do. This could mean devastating flash flooding, across the already hard hit Addison County. The possibility of Flash Flooding will be across the entire area, with the stronger storms that develop tomorrow. I would not be surprised to see another Flash Flood Watch issued again tomorrow. Stay tuned to this very serious and developing weather situation.
Below is an updated flood potential map...
Today was quite a day as far as weather is concerned. Widespread .50 - 1.25 inches of rain has fallen across Northern New York, and Northern Vermont. Across Central and Northeast Vermont, as well as Southern St. Lawrence, Southern Franklin, and most of Essex County New York has seen widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with scattered areas of 3-4 inches and isolated areas of up to 5 inches of rain. These heavier amounts produced some significant Flash Flooding. The hardest hit county was Addison County, more specific is the Southern portion of the County. Doppler radar estimates that 3 - 5 inches fell across the southern portions of Addison County. These amounts resulted in widespread road washouts/ closures, as well as some evacuations. Damage across that area is astonishing.
All Flood Alerts have been dropped. No warnings, watches, or advisories are in effect. This will likely change though by tomorrow. More on this in a moment.
National Weather Service Doppler radar is showing some light to occasionally moderate rain over North-Central, and Northeast Vermont. With another area of strong thunderstorms over extreme Southwest St. Lawrence County in Northern New York. Showers should remain concentrated across Northeast Vermont, and should taper off overnight. The drying wont last more then several hours, as more showers and thunderstorms develop from late morning Thursday on. These showers and thunderstorms are predicted to be fairly widespread, and slow moving. This with all the rain today, and in past weeks will lead to significant runoff and the threat for flash flooding. Of most concern is Addison County in Vermont. As only around an inch in one hour will cause some problems. If these storms drop 2 - 3 inches in a couple of hours which they have the potential to do. This could mean devastating flash flooding, across the already hard hit Addison County. The possibility of Flash Flooding will be across the entire area, with the stronger storms that develop tomorrow. I would not be surprised to see another Flash Flood Watch issued again tomorrow. Stay tuned to this very serious and developing weather situation.
Below is an updated flood potential map...
UPDATE: Heavy Rains Re-entering Southern Addison County
Update...
National Weather Service Doppler radar is indicating a strong thunderstorm over Southern Addison County, moving into Northern Rutland County, and Extreme Northwest Windsor County. This area is where as much as 4 inches of rain has fallen. This storm will drop up to another additional inch of rain across this area, and may cause renewed flooding. At minimum significant ponding of water on roadways will likely occur, with small streams already running high or out of there banks will see sharp rises once again. Conditions will continue to be monitored for further Flood Advisories or Flash Flood Warning for this area.
Further upstream into Northern New York, and Northwestern Vermont, thunderstorms with heavy rain are moving east-southeast. These storms will have the capability of producing an inch of rain in an hour or less. Significant ponding of water on roadways is likely with any of these storms. Conditions will continue to be monitored for the potential of Flood Advisories for portions of Northern New York, and Northwestern Vermont over the next several hours.
Below is a map showing where the most significant flooding/ hardest hit areas are...
National Weather Service Doppler radar is indicating a strong thunderstorm over Southern Addison County, moving into Northern Rutland County, and Extreme Northwest Windsor County. This area is where as much as 4 inches of rain has fallen. This storm will drop up to another additional inch of rain across this area, and may cause renewed flooding. At minimum significant ponding of water on roadways will likely occur, with small streams already running high or out of there banks will see sharp rises once again. Conditions will continue to be monitored for further Flood Advisories or Flash Flood Warning for this area.
Further upstream into Northern New York, and Northwestern Vermont, thunderstorms with heavy rain are moving east-southeast. These storms will have the capability of producing an inch of rain in an hour or less. Significant ponding of water on roadways is likely with any of these storms. Conditions will continue to be monitored for the potential of Flood Advisories for portions of Northern New York, and Northwestern Vermont over the next several hours.
Below is a map showing where the most significant flooding/ hardest hit areas are...
UPDATE: Flash Flooding Ongoing
Update...
The National Weather Service in Burlington issued a Flash Flood Warning at 8:30 this morning for Extreme Southeastern Essex County, New York, Addison County, Vermont, and Northwestern Ruland County, Vermont. Doppler radar indicates that 2 - 4 inches of rain has fallen across the Warning area, and numerous reports of Flash Flooding have been received across Addison County. This warning though expires at 2:15. Any additional rain or thunderstorms that move into the area will have to be watched extremly close.
Another Flash flood warning was issued for Southern Orleans, Lamoille, Northern Caledonia, and Western Essex County Vermont at around 9:30AM this morning. Rainfall totals here have ranged from 2 - 4 inches as well, and some flash flooding has occured across Northern Caledonia County as well. Stay tuned for further updates...
The National Weather Service in Burlington issued a Flash Flood Warning at 8:30 this morning for Extreme Southeastern Essex County, New York, Addison County, Vermont, and Northwestern Ruland County, Vermont. Doppler radar indicates that 2 - 4 inches of rain has fallen across the Warning area, and numerous reports of Flash Flooding have been received across Addison County. This warning though expires at 2:15. Any additional rain or thunderstorms that move into the area will have to be watched extremly close.
Another Flash flood warning was issued for Southern Orleans, Lamoille, Northern Caledonia, and Western Essex County Vermont at around 9:30AM this morning. Rainfall totals here have ranged from 2 - 4 inches as well, and some flash flooding has occured across Northern Caledonia County as well. Stay tuned for further updates...
More Heavy Rain On The Way; Flash Flood Watch Issued
OVERVIEW:
The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Northern and Central Vermont, and a Flood Watch for Northern New Hampshire. At this time Doppler radar indicated widespread showers and thunderstorms over Western and Central New York, moving generally east. Due to heavy rainfall over the past several days, the ground remains saturated, and any rainfall will result in fairly significant runoff. In any thunderstorms that occur, the possibility for Flash Flooding is likely, especially across Northern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire.
WHAT TO EXPECT/ TIMING:
Rain will overspread the region in the next 4-8 hours, with rain heavy at times into the afternoon. Rain will then begin to taper off, and should be pretty much out of the region by Thursday morning. Then more widespread showers and thunderstorms appear likely right into Friday. This will result in additional flooding concerns.
RAINFALL TOTALS:
Rainfall amounts will range from .50 - 1 inch across Southern Vermont, and 1 - 2 inches across Northern New York, Northern and Central Vermont, and Northern and Central New Hampshire. Higher amounts of 2 - 3 inches locally will be possible across Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New York. Things will be closely monitored for the potential of even higher localized rainfall totals by Friday, depending on thunderstorm development Thursday and Friday.
Right now the majority of the rain is forecasted to fall within an 4 - 8 hour period, which is not good for the already saturated ground. Therefor the flood potential remains fairly high, especially across Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire. Some Flash Flooding is possible, especially across the above mentioned areas.
Below are 4 maps, first being the Flood Potential, Second being the forecasted rainfall totals, Third being the National Weather Service Current Alerts, and Fourth being My Current Alerts map. Stay tuned for further updates...
The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Northern and Central Vermont, and a Flood Watch for Northern New Hampshire. At this time Doppler radar indicated widespread showers and thunderstorms over Western and Central New York, moving generally east. Due to heavy rainfall over the past several days, the ground remains saturated, and any rainfall will result in fairly significant runoff. In any thunderstorms that occur, the possibility for Flash Flooding is likely, especially across Northern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire.
WHAT TO EXPECT/ TIMING:
Rain will overspread the region in the next 4-8 hours, with rain heavy at times into the afternoon. Rain will then begin to taper off, and should be pretty much out of the region by Thursday morning. Then more widespread showers and thunderstorms appear likely right into Friday. This will result in additional flooding concerns.
RAINFALL TOTALS:
Rainfall amounts will range from .50 - 1 inch across Southern Vermont, and 1 - 2 inches across Northern New York, Northern and Central Vermont, and Northern and Central New Hampshire. Higher amounts of 2 - 3 inches locally will be possible across Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New York. Things will be closely monitored for the potential of even higher localized rainfall totals by Friday, depending on thunderstorm development Thursday and Friday.
Right now the majority of the rain is forecasted to fall within an 4 - 8 hour period, which is not good for the already saturated ground. Therefor the flood potential remains fairly high, especially across Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire. Some Flash Flooding is possible, especially across the above mentioned areas.
Below are 4 maps, first being the Flood Potential, Second being the forecasted rainfall totals, Third being the National Weather Service Current Alerts, and Fourth being My Current Alerts map. Stay tuned for further updates...
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Like A Broken Record; More Rain and Flood Concerns On The Way
OVERVIEW:
We just cannot get away from this rainy pattern...and once again more rain, and potential flooding is on its way. Over the past 30 days widespread rainfall totals of 10 - 15 inches of rain across Addison County Vermont, and much of Northeastern, and North-central Vermont. Across the entire state over the last 30 days rainfall totals are 4 - 8 inches, except for the above areas mentioned that have received more. Across Northern New York widespread rainfall of 4 - 8 inches has been common over the past 30 days, and across New Hampshire, in the Northern areas 8 - 15 inches has been common, and across Central and Southern areas 4 - 8 inches have been common. With all this rain, its a surprise we have not had any significant widespread flooding. Its nothing but rain event after rain event. But by the grace of god, its been spaced out just right, to avoid widespread disaster. So unfortunate to say, it looks like another rain storm is on the way for Wednesday to Friday time frame.
WHAT TO EXPECT/ TIMING:
Rain possibly heavy at times is expected Wednesday into Friday. On Wednesday Clouds will increase and the threat for thunderstorms will develop first across Northern New York, then into Vermont, and New Hampshire. These storms will for into a band of moderate rain overnight into Thursday and then taper off to showers for Thursday afternoon into Friday. Right now any flooding to occur would likely be minor due to the fact it is a prolonged event. But with the threat of thunderstorms will be the threat of Flash Flooding, due to the fact they will be fairly slow movers, and will have a tendency to back build.
Right now the best chance for any type of Flooding is across Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire, where heavy rainfall over the past month has refused to let the ground dry much at all, and this area is expected to get the heaviest of rain. The entire area though has a moderate threat for flooding due to all the rain as well.
MODELS:
Models are differing as to where the placement of the heaviest precipitation is going to be, but either way they all show at least .50" - 1" of rain to be common across the entire area. The NAM model indicates up to 4 inches of rain to fall along the international border and down into Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire. I feel the NAM model is a bit overdone on rainfall totals. The GFS model shows up to 2 inches of rain across Northern New York. The final model the NGM is indicating up to 1.5 inches of rain, along the international border. So needless to say I am forecasting the entire area to see .50" - 1 inch of rain with a more widespread area of 1 - 2 inches across Northeastern New York, Northern, and Central Vermont, and Northern and Central New Hampshire, with an area of 2 - 3 inches across Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire. The 2 - 3 inch area is more of a local thing then widespread. Now .50 - 1 inch of rain will not cause flooding what so ever, but widespread 2 inch amounts could begin to cause problems especially if it falls within 24 hours, which does look to occur. As the heaviest rain is forecasted to be Wednesday into Thursday, with much lighter rain Thursday into Friday. Any thunderstorms that develop could cause locally even higher amounts, and the potential of some Flash Flooding, especially if these thunderstorms form over Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire. Below are 2 maps, one if the flood potential map, and the other is forecasted rainfall totals. Stay tuned for further updates...
We just cannot get away from this rainy pattern...and once again more rain, and potential flooding is on its way. Over the past 30 days widespread rainfall totals of 10 - 15 inches of rain across Addison County Vermont, and much of Northeastern, and North-central Vermont. Across the entire state over the last 30 days rainfall totals are 4 - 8 inches, except for the above areas mentioned that have received more. Across Northern New York widespread rainfall of 4 - 8 inches has been common over the past 30 days, and across New Hampshire, in the Northern areas 8 - 15 inches has been common, and across Central and Southern areas 4 - 8 inches have been common. With all this rain, its a surprise we have not had any significant widespread flooding. Its nothing but rain event after rain event. But by the grace of god, its been spaced out just right, to avoid widespread disaster. So unfortunate to say, it looks like another rain storm is on the way for Wednesday to Friday time frame.
WHAT TO EXPECT/ TIMING:
Rain possibly heavy at times is expected Wednesday into Friday. On Wednesday Clouds will increase and the threat for thunderstorms will develop first across Northern New York, then into Vermont, and New Hampshire. These storms will for into a band of moderate rain overnight into Thursday and then taper off to showers for Thursday afternoon into Friday. Right now any flooding to occur would likely be minor due to the fact it is a prolonged event. But with the threat of thunderstorms will be the threat of Flash Flooding, due to the fact they will be fairly slow movers, and will have a tendency to back build.
Right now the best chance for any type of Flooding is across Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire, where heavy rainfall over the past month has refused to let the ground dry much at all, and this area is expected to get the heaviest of rain. The entire area though has a moderate threat for flooding due to all the rain as well.
MODELS:
Models are differing as to where the placement of the heaviest precipitation is going to be, but either way they all show at least .50" - 1" of rain to be common across the entire area. The NAM model indicates up to 4 inches of rain to fall along the international border and down into Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire. I feel the NAM model is a bit overdone on rainfall totals. The GFS model shows up to 2 inches of rain across Northern New York. The final model the NGM is indicating up to 1.5 inches of rain, along the international border. So needless to say I am forecasting the entire area to see .50" - 1 inch of rain with a more widespread area of 1 - 2 inches across Northeastern New York, Northern, and Central Vermont, and Northern and Central New Hampshire, with an area of 2 - 3 inches across Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire. The 2 - 3 inch area is more of a local thing then widespread. Now .50 - 1 inch of rain will not cause flooding what so ever, but widespread 2 inch amounts could begin to cause problems especially if it falls within 24 hours, which does look to occur. As the heaviest rain is forecasted to be Wednesday into Thursday, with much lighter rain Thursday into Friday. Any thunderstorms that develop could cause locally even higher amounts, and the potential of some Flash Flooding, especially if these thunderstorms form over Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire. Below are 2 maps, one if the flood potential map, and the other is forecasted rainfall totals. Stay tuned for further updates...
Sunday, August 3, 2008
UPDATE: Heavy Rains Decreasing
Update...
National Weather Service Doppler radar indicates that showers, and thunderstorms are decreasing in intensity and areal coverage for now. The heaviest rains are currently over Eastern, and Northeastern Vermont where rainfall rates are as high as 1 inch per hour in a couple locales. For the most part though no more then some spotty sprinkles are occurring. Rainfall totals yesterday 8/2/08 were more convective in nature then a widespread rainfall. Heavy totals were spotty across the area with Doppler radar indicating up to 3.5 inches falling in a few places. Reports recieved from the National Weather Service seem to indicate the hardest hit county so far was Washington County in Vermont, more specific; Moretown, and Middlesex where several roads were washed out. Across Moretown, and Middlesex Doppler radar indicates anywhere from 1 - 3 inches of rain fell yesterday 8/2/08. Montpelier reported 1.05 inches of rain yesterday.
For tomorrow more showers and thunderstorms are likely, most widespread across Eastern, and Northeastern Vermont. Although some showers and thunderstorms will still occur over Northern New York, and Northern, and Western Vermont. Flooding of mainstem rivers to me looks unlikely. Flash flooding of smaller creeks and streams though has an increased potential. So on my current alerts map below you will see I have switched many areas over to a Flash Flood Watch, due to the fact that soil is already saturated, which yes will enhance main stem river levels, but not enough to really flood. The rain is going to be more convective in nature leading to an enhanced risk for Flash Flooding...
National Weather Service Doppler radar indicates that showers, and thunderstorms are decreasing in intensity and areal coverage for now. The heaviest rains are currently over Eastern, and Northeastern Vermont where rainfall rates are as high as 1 inch per hour in a couple locales. For the most part though no more then some spotty sprinkles are occurring. Rainfall totals yesterday 8/2/08 were more convective in nature then a widespread rainfall. Heavy totals were spotty across the area with Doppler radar indicating up to 3.5 inches falling in a few places. Reports recieved from the National Weather Service seem to indicate the hardest hit county so far was Washington County in Vermont, more specific; Moretown, and Middlesex where several roads were washed out. Across Moretown, and Middlesex Doppler radar indicates anywhere from 1 - 3 inches of rain fell yesterday 8/2/08. Montpelier reported 1.05 inches of rain yesterday.
For tomorrow more showers and thunderstorms are likely, most widespread across Eastern, and Northeastern Vermont. Although some showers and thunderstorms will still occur over Northern New York, and Northern, and Western Vermont. Flooding of mainstem rivers to me looks unlikely. Flash flooding of smaller creeks and streams though has an increased potential. So on my current alerts map below you will see I have switched many areas over to a Flash Flood Watch, due to the fact that soil is already saturated, which yes will enhance main stem river levels, but not enough to really flood. The rain is going to be more convective in nature leading to an enhanced risk for Flash Flooding...
Saturday, August 2, 2008
Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches Issued
Overview:
National Weather Service Doppler radar continues to indicate widespread rain showers, and thunderstorms with heavy rain, across much of Northern New York, and much of Vermont. Rainfall rates of up to 1.5 inches per hour are falling across portions of Northern and Central Vermont. In Northern New York rainfall rates are up to 1 inch per hours. All showers and thunderstorms are moving very slow and are back building. Also what looked like it was going to be just a rain even for today into early tomorrow morning now looks like it could continue well into tomorrow night. The most susceptible areas to flooding are going to be Orleans, Lamoille, Washington, Essex, Caledonia, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, and Eastern Addison Counties. Washington county experienced significant flooding in the town of Berlin last night, currently that is one of the counties that is currently under a flash flood warning. This situation needs to be very closely monitored. Stay tuned to this blog as well as your local weather and media outlets for further updates. Below is a current National Weather Service alerts map, and my own current alerts map...
National Weather Service Doppler radar continues to indicate widespread rain showers, and thunderstorms with heavy rain, across much of Northern New York, and much of Vermont. Rainfall rates of up to 1.5 inches per hour are falling across portions of Northern and Central Vermont. In Northern New York rainfall rates are up to 1 inch per hours. All showers and thunderstorms are moving very slow and are back building. Also what looked like it was going to be just a rain even for today into early tomorrow morning now looks like it could continue well into tomorrow night. The most susceptible areas to flooding are going to be Orleans, Lamoille, Washington, Essex, Caledonia, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, and Eastern Addison Counties. Washington county experienced significant flooding in the town of Berlin last night, currently that is one of the counties that is currently under a flash flood warning. This situation needs to be very closely monitored. Stay tuned to this blog as well as your local weather and media outlets for further updates. Below is a current National Weather Service alerts map, and my own current alerts map...
Friday, August 1, 2008
Isolated Thunderstorms Today; More Significant Rainfall Tomorrow
Overview:
Recent radar trends indicate that showers and isolated single cell thunderstorms are beginning to develop across Northern New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire. Currently none of these are that intense, however storms could get slightly more intense later this afternoon. Not intense enough to be severe though. The biggest threat will be heavy rain with the strongest of storms due to the fact they will remain nearly stationary or move very slowly. For tomorrow, thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon, as a low pressure system moves across the region, and slows down. Thunderstorms will lead way to a swath of rain, potentially heavy at times. The heaviest rain is currently forecasted to fall over Northeastern Vermont, and Northern and Central New Hampshire.
Rainfall Totals:
Widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected with the area painted in 2-3 inches being more locally, and perhaps an isolated amount exceeding 3 inches over Northern New Hampshire. For the entire Champlain Valley and Southern Vermont .50 to 1 inch of rain is expected with significantly less as you go towards the St. Lawrence Valley. Thunderstorms though could aid in isolated higher totals.
Impacts:
For the most part the rain will be handled well across the area, but there is some elevated concern for area waterways in Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire. Due to the recent wet weather we have had, and continued thunderstorms across Eastern Vermont, and New Hampshire, Flood guidance values are fairly low, so in areas that receive 2 inches within 12 hours could cause some flooding, and 2.5 - 3 inches within 24 hours could cause some flooding as well. For the most part any flooding should be minor. But as always, any thunderstorms that develop over the area will need to be monitored. Stay tuned for further updates. Below is a map of my forecasted rainfall totals.
Recent radar trends indicate that showers and isolated single cell thunderstorms are beginning to develop across Northern New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire. Currently none of these are that intense, however storms could get slightly more intense later this afternoon. Not intense enough to be severe though. The biggest threat will be heavy rain with the strongest of storms due to the fact they will remain nearly stationary or move very slowly. For tomorrow, thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon, as a low pressure system moves across the region, and slows down. Thunderstorms will lead way to a swath of rain, potentially heavy at times. The heaviest rain is currently forecasted to fall over Northeastern Vermont, and Northern and Central New Hampshire.
Rainfall Totals:
Widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected with the area painted in 2-3 inches being more locally, and perhaps an isolated amount exceeding 3 inches over Northern New Hampshire. For the entire Champlain Valley and Southern Vermont .50 to 1 inch of rain is expected with significantly less as you go towards the St. Lawrence Valley. Thunderstorms though could aid in isolated higher totals.
Impacts:
For the most part the rain will be handled well across the area, but there is some elevated concern for area waterways in Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire. Due to the recent wet weather we have had, and continued thunderstorms across Eastern Vermont, and New Hampshire, Flood guidance values are fairly low, so in areas that receive 2 inches within 12 hours could cause some flooding, and 2.5 - 3 inches within 24 hours could cause some flooding as well. For the most part any flooding should be minor. But as always, any thunderstorms that develop over the area will need to be monitored. Stay tuned for further updates. Below is a map of my forecasted rainfall totals.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
