Damaging Winds Occuring Across The Northern Champlain Valley

Local Update...
   Strong Winds Causing Damage Across The Northern Champlain Valley; JRWeather High Wind Warning & Wind Advisory In Effect Until 7PM Tonight; JRWeather Flood Watch In Effect Until 1AM Thursday Morning...

JRWeather HIGH WIND WARNING
     JRWeather has issued a High Wind Warning For Grand Isle, and Western Franklin Counties In Vermont, and Eastern Clinton County in New York, Until 7PM Tonight.

     Between 10AM and 11AM, several reports of trees and power lines down have been reported across the Northern Champlain Valley. One of these reports were in Swanton, Vermont where a roof was partial blown off a business, from an estimated wind gust of 55MPH.

     A low pressure system, and its associated cold front, moving east towards our region was resulting in strong, and damaging winds in the Northern Champlain Valley of Vermont, and New York. Strong to damaging winds will continue to range from 25-40MPH with isolated gusts up to 60MPH, especially across the Northern Champlain Valley, where winds are being Channeled. Winds of this magnitude are strong enough to cause trees and large limbs to fall resulting in the potential for power outages. In damaging wind events like this it is recommended to stay inside.

     Strong and damaging winds should diminish by 7PM tonight, thus ending the high wind threat. A High Wind Warning is issued when sustained winds of 40MPH or greater and/or gusts to 55MPH or greater are imminent or occuring. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WIND ADVISORY
     JRWeather Has Issued A Wind Advisory For Orleans, Chittenden, Lamoille, Addison, Washington, Rutland, Bennington, and Eastern Franklin Counties in Vermont and St. Lawrence, Franklin, Essex, and Western Clinton County In New York, Until 7PM Tonight.

     A low pressure system moving through the great lakes region, and its associated cold front, will be responsible for bringing strong winds to the region today. Winds will continue to increase from the South-Southwest during the late morning, and early afternoon hours. Sustained winds will be in the 20-30MPH range with gusts up to 50MPH, throughout the day. Winds will shift to the Northwest later in the day, and continue to gust up to 50MPH into the late evening.

     A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 30-39MPH or gusts up to 54MPH are expected. It is recommended to secure any loose object that will have the potential to be blown around. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
     JRWeather Continues The Flood Watch For Franklin, Orleans, Essex, Chittenden, Lamoille, Caledonia, Addison, Washington, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont, and All of Northern New York Until 1AM Thursday Morning.

     Significant Rainfall, and Snowmelt today could result in the potential of Flooding later today into early Thursday morning, before colder air stops runoff. Across Northern Vermont, and Northern New York the potential exists for Ice Jam Flooding, further South non-ice jam related flooding could occur.

     Temperatures in the Mid 40'sF to near 50F combined with the potential of a half to three quarters of an inch of rain today, will likely result in rapid rises on area rivers. Across Northern Vermont, where Ice remains in Place on area rivers, the threat will exist for ice jam flooding. Across Central, and Southern Vermont, where heavy rains fell this past weekend, the additional rain may push area rivers, creeks, and streams out of there banks.

     The rivers that are at a high risk of Ice Jam flooding right now are the Missisquoi River in Orleans, and Franklin Counties in Vermont. The Lamoille River in Lamoille, and Franklin Counties in Vermont, The Great Chazy river in Clinton County, New York, and the Ausable River, including the East Branch in Essex and Clinton Counties in New York.

     The rivers that are at high risk for non-ice jam related flooding, across Central and Southern Vermont include but are not limited to the Otter Creek, in Rutland, and Addison Counties, the Williams River, in Windham County, and The Batten Kill, in Bennington County.

     A Flood watch is issued when there is the potential for flooding to occur, but not imminent. If you experience rapidly rising water, or nearby flooding, then move immediatly to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Things are getting rather interesting, especially across the Northern Champlain Valley. Winds are being mixed down to the surface, and are being channeled across the Northern Champlain Valley which has resulted in some structural damage, and numerous trees, and some power lines down. Winds across much of the Wind Advisory region are currently ranging from 15-20MPH with gusts up to 30MPH. Across the Northern Champlain Valley, where the High Wind Warning is in effect, winds are currently in the 20-30MPH range with gusts up to 40MPH. WInds should continue to increase across much of the region, with the Northern Champlain Valley seeing the strongest of the winds. Isolated wind gusts could reach 60MPH across the Northern Champlain Valley. Already, in Swanton a roof was partially blown off a business from an estimated wind gust of 55MPH.


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     SORRY FOR ANY SPELLING MISTAKES, SPELL CHECK IS ONCE AGAIN NOT WORKING!!!

Potential Flooding, and Strong Winds For Wednesday

Local Update...
   A Little Bit Of Everything For Wednesday; JRWeather Flood Watch In Effect Until 1AM Thursday Morning; JRWeather Wind Advisory In Effect From 7AM This Morning, Until 7PM This Evening...

JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
     JRWeather Continues The Flood Watch For Franklin, Orleans, Essex, Chittenden, Lamoille, Caledonia, Addison, Washington, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont, and All of Northern New York Until 1AM Thursday Morning.

     Significant Rainfall, and Snowmelt today could result in the potential of Flooding later today into early Thursday morning, before colder air stops runoff. Across Northern Vermont, and Northern New York the potential exists for Ice Jam Flooding, further South non-ice jam related flooding could occur.

     Temperatures in the Mid 40'sF to near 50F combined with the potential of a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain today, will likely result in rapid rises on area rivers. Across Northern Vermont, where Ice remains in Place on area rivers, the threat will exist for ice jam flooding. Across Central, and Southern Vermont, where heavy rains fell this past weekend, the additional rain may push area rivers, creeks, and streams out of there banks.

     The rivers that are at a high risk of Ice Jam flooding right now are the Missisquoi River in Orleans, and Franklin Counties in Vermont. The Lamoille River in Lamoille, and Franklin Counties in Vermont, The Great Chazy river in Clinton County, New York, and the Ausable River, including the East Branch in Essex and Clinton Counties in New York.

     The rivers that are at high risk for non-ice jam related flooding, across Central and Southern Vermont include but are not limited to the Otter Creek, in Rutland, and Addison Counties, the Williams River, in Windham County, and The Batten Kill, in Bennington County.

     A Flood watch is issued when there is the potential for flooding to occur, but not imminent. If you experience rapidly rising water, or nearby flooding, then move immediately to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WIND ADVISORY
     JRWeather Has Issued A Wind Advisory For Grand Isle, Franklin, Orleans, Chittenden, Lamoille, Addison, Washington, Rutland, and Bennington Counties in Vermont and All of Northern Northern New York From 7AM This Morning Until 7PM Tonight.

     A low pressure system moving through the great lakes region, and its associated cold front, will be responsible for bringing strong winds to the region today. Winds will increase from the South-Southwest during the early morning hours. Sustained winds will be in the 25-35MPH range with gusts up to 50MPH, throughout the day. Winds will shift to the Northwest later in the day, and continue to gust up to 50MPH into the late evening.

     A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 30-39MPH or gusts up to 54MPH are expected. It is recommended to secure any loose object that will have the potential to be blown around. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     I was getting a little too much into the flood threat, and overlooked the Wind threat last night, and today. After the National Weather Service caught my attention with a Wind Advisory, I took a look at the potential winds, and realized I had better issue a Wind Advisory. I feel that strong winds though, will be seen across a bit larger portion of the area then the National Weather Service though. So I have issued a Wind Advisory for all of Northern New York, All of Western Vermont, and the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. Winds should increase into the 25-35MPH range with gusts up to 50MPH, with an occasional gust to 55MPH directly along, and behind the cold frontal passage. With sustained winds being so close to the 40MPH threshold for a Warning, and close to my 55MPH Wind gust threshold for a Warning I was debating on whether or not to issue a High Wind Warning. At this time, I feel that a Wind Advisory should do well, as widespread Warning criteria winds, will not occur. The situation will continue to be monitored closely though.

     The Flood Watch remains, although less rain is expected. Instead of a half to one inch of precipitation expected it now looks as though a quarter, to three quarters of an inch is expected. The quarter inch amounts are expected to be across the Northern area, which may not be enough to cause significant rises for Ice Jam flooding, however with warm temperatures, enough snowmelt may combine with rainfall totals to raise rivers enough for the ice to jam up, and produce flooding. So I left the entire area under a flood watch.

     Of some lesser concern will be the potential of pockets of Freezing rain across the sheltered valleys of Eastern Vermont, and the extreme Northern St. Lawrence Valley of New York. These pockets of freezing rain should change over to all rain by 8AM.



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Flooding Concerns Return To The Region

Local Update...
   Warm Temperatures, Combined With Significant Rainfall Raise Flooding Concerns Once Again; JRWeather Flood Watch In Effect From 1AM Wednesday Morning Until 1AM Thursday Morning...

JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
     JRWeather Has Issued A Flood Watch For Franklin, Orleans, Essex, Chittenden, Lamoille, Caledonia, Addison, Washington, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont, and All of Northern New York, From 1AM Wednesday Morning Until 1AM Thursday Morning.

     Significant Rainfall, and Snowmelt Tuesday Night into Wednesday Night could result in the potential of Flooding Wednesday into Thursday. Across Northern Vermont, and Northern New York the potential exists for Ice Jam Flooding, further South non-ice jam related flooding could occur.

     Temperatures in the Mid 40'sF to Low 50'sF combined with the potential of a half to as much as one inch of rain Tuesday into Wednesday will result in rapid rises on area rivers. Across Northern Vermont, where Ice remains in Place on area rivers, the threat will exist for ice jam flooding. Across Central, and Southern Vermont, where heavy rains fell this past weekend, the additional rain may push area rivers, creeks, and streams out of there banks.

     The rivers that are at a high risk of Ice Jam flooding right now are the Missisquoi River in Orleans, and Franklin Counties in Vermont. The Lamoille River in Lamoille, and Franklin Counties in Vermont, The Great Chazy river in Clinton County, New York, and the Ausable River, including the East Branch in Essex and Clinton Counties in New York.

     The rivers that are at high risk for non-ice jam related flooding, across Central and Southern Vermont include but are not limited to the Otter Creek, in Rutland, and Addison Counties, the Williams River, in Windham County, and The Batten Kill, in Bennington County.

     A Flood watch is issued when there is the potential for flooding to occur, but not imminent. If you experience rapidly rising water, or nearby flooding, then move immediately to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Looks like things will get interesting once again for our region. I have issued a Flood Watch for the entire region, except Grand Isle, County. Why? Because Grand Isle County has no Rivers, only a Lake, which wont be flooding anytime soon. Rain should start late Tuesday night, perhaps as a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain, but during the mid to late Morning hours, any mix left, will rapidly change over to all rain. Right now models are indicating as little as a half inch along the Canadian border, to as much as one inch across Central, and Southern Vermont. The latest 00Z NAM model is the most robust indicating a widespread three quarters of an inch to an inch and a quarter across our region, with isolated amounts as high as an inch and a half across Central Vermont. I really don't see widespread amounts exceeding an inch. Although it wouldn't be a surprise if an isolated amount or two in excess of one inch occurs, but I don't feel that it will be a widespread thing. Eitherway conditions will continue to be watched closely. Stay tuned for further updates!!


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The National Weather Service has not issued any official alerts at this time.

Light Snow, and Wintry Mix To Continue This Morning

Local Update...
   Wintry Mix To Continue Into The Mid Afternoon; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect Until 2PM This Afternoon...

JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather Has Continued The Winter Weather Advisory For Addison, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont, and Essex County in New York Until 2PM This Afternoon.

     Snow will continue this morning, moderate at times. Snow is also expected to mix with sleet, and freezing rain for a couple hours. The wintry mix should rapidly tapper off by late this afternoon. Total snow accumulations will range from 3-6 inches with the higher amounts along the western slopes of the Green Mountains near Killington, in addition to the snow, localized ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch are possible.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when there is a strong likelihood of significant but not severe winter weather. In this case the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for light to moderate amounts of snow, and light amounts of sleet, and freezing rain. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     I cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for the Northern half of the area, as snow has pretty much tapered off across the area, some snow showers will be on an off all day, but wont mount to much up north. Another area of precipitation was developing over New York, and moving towards Central, and Southern Vermont, therefor I have continued the Winter Weather Advisory for these locations, for 3-6 inches of snow. Also some sleet, and freezing rain has been showing up in observations across Northern New York, and this will be likely across Vermont as well. Light localized ice accumulations of up to a tenth inch are possible, in addition to the snow.


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Minor Flooding Contiues As Snow Is About To Start

Local Update...
   JRWeather Flood Warning In Effect Until 5PM This Evening; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect From 2AM This Morning, Until 2PM This Afternoon...

JRWeather FLOOD WARNING
     JRWeather Has Continued The Flood Warning For Windham County in Vermont Until 5PM Monday.

     The Williams River Continues To Run Out Of Its Banks In Windham County Vermont.

     At 12:00AM The Williams River at Rockingham was at a stage of 8.8 Feet. Flood Stage on the Williams River at Rockingham is 8.0 Feet. The river has been steady at 8.8 feet since 4PM Sunday Afternoon.

     The River jumped nearly 3 feet within 30 minutes Sunday morning between 10:45AM and 11:15AM. This is likely the result of an ice jam.

     If you live near the Flood area, along the Williams River, it is recommended to move to higher ground. If you live downstream of the river, and no flooding is occurring, then watch the waterway closely, if the ice jam lets go, water levels will rise rapidly downstream, similar to flash flooding.

     A Flood Warning is issued when Flooding is occurring or imminent. If you live in a flood prone area, and that area is experiencing high water, move to higher ground immediately. Stay tuned for further updates!


JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather Has Continued The Winter Weather Advisory For Grand Isle, Franklin, Chittenden, Lamoille, Caledonia, Addison, Washington, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont, and All of Northern New York From 2AM This Morning Until 2PM This Afternoon.

     A low pressure system tracking from the Southern Great Lakes region, to near Long Island New York by Monday Afternoon will result in snow, possibly heavy at times across much of the region.

     Snow should develop by 5AM across the Advisory area. Snow will fall heavy at times, especially early Monday Morning. Snow should rapidly tapper off by late Monday afternoon. Total snow accumulations will range from 3-6 inches with locally higher amounts across the Adirondack mountains, and Southern Green mountains, where localized amounts of 8 inches could fall.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when there is a strong likelihood of significant but not severe winter weather. In this case the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for light to moderate amounts of snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     The Flood Statement has expired as planned. The river gauge on the East Branch of the Ausable River, in Ausable Forks, is showing signs that the jam may be slowly breaking apart as water levels are starting to fall. Although if the jam rapidly breaks down, then areas downstream will need to be careful as river levels will rise very rapidly. At this point though all flooding is minimal. In Southern Vermont at the Williams River at Rockingham, an Ice Jam remains strongly in place. The river level there has been the same since 4PM this afternoon. This shows the ice jam is strongly in place at this time. Flooding in this location could last well into Monday or possibly early Tuesday, if the jam does not shift, or break open, allowing water to escape.
     The Winter Weather Advisory remains in place, I was strongly thinking of placing the Northern Adirondack mountains in New York under a Winter Storm Warning, as the latest GFS model indicates a more widespread area of .75" inches of liquid equivalent falling. This would be close to low end Warning Criteria. I decided though to leave it as an advisory and leave the .75" liquid equivalent being depicted in the GFS as only a localized thing, resulting in some snow amounts near 8 inches. Widespread snow amounts should range from 3-6 inches across the Advisory area, stay tuned for further updates. I have updated the maps below...


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Flooding Ongoing For Portions Of The Region; Winter Weather Will Make A Comeback

Local Update...
   Flooding Ongoing Across Portions Of Southern Vermont, and Northern New York; Accumulating Snows To Effect The Region Monday; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect From 2AM Monday Morning Until 2PM Monday Afternoon...

JRWeather FLOOD WARNING
     JRWeather Has Issued A Flood Warning For Windham County in Vermont Until 12PM Monday.

     Williams River Running Out Of Its Banks In Windham County Vermont.

     At 3:45PM The Williams River at Rockingham was at a stage of 8.85 Feet. Flood State on the Williams River at Rockingham is 8.0 Feet. The river has been nearly steady since around 12PM.

     The River jumped nearly 3 feet within 30 minutes this morning between 10:45AM and 11:15AM, and since then has been very slowly fluctuating. This is likely the result of an ice jam.

     If you live near the Flood area, along the Williams River, it is recommended to move to higher ground. If you live downstream of the River, and no flooding is occuring, then watch the waterway closely, if the Jams lets go, water levels will rise rapidly downstream, similar to flash flooding.

     A Flood Warning is issued when Flooding is occuring or imminent. If you live in a flood proned area, and that area is experiencing high water, move to higher ground immediatly. Stay tuned for further updates!


JRWeather FLOOD STATEMENT
     JRWeather Has Issued A Flood Statement For Clinton, and Essex Counties in New York Until 11PM Tonight.

     An Ice Jam on the East Branch of the Ausable River at Ausable Forks, is resulting in high water.

     At 3:45PM the river gauge on the East Branch of the Ausable River at Ausable Forks, was showing erratic measurments, this is indicative of an ice jam that has been reported near the gauge. Water has been overflowing and causing some significant low land flooding. Water levels sould either drop or remain steady.

     If you live near the East Branch of the Ausable river monitor closely for flooding, if flooding begins to occur then move to higher ground immediatly. If you live downstream of the River, and no flooding is occuring, then watch the waterway closely, if the Jam lets go, water levels will rise rapidly downstream, similar to flash flooding.

     A Flood Statement is issued when minor nuisance flooding, such as low lying farm land, or poor drainage flooding is imminent or occuring, if flooding gets substantialy worse, move to higher ground immediatly. Stay tuned for further updates!


JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather Has Issued A Winter Weather Advisory For Grand Isle, Franklin, Chittenden, Lamoille, Caledonia, Addison, Washington, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont, and All of Northern New York From 2AM Until 2PM Monday.

     A low pressure system tracking from the Southern Great Lakes region, to near Long Island New York by Monday Afternoon will result in snow, possibly heavy at times across much of the region.

     Snow should develop by 5AM across the Advisory area. Snow will fall heavy at times, especially Monday Morning. Snow should rapidly tapper off by late Monday afternoon. Total snow accumulations will range from 3-6 inches with Locally higher amounts across the Adirondack mountains, and Southern Green mountains, where localized amounts of 8 inches could fall.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when there is a strong likelihood of significant but not severe winter weather. In this case the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for light to moderate amounts of snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     First off I apologize for not typing a discussion yesterday, I became side tracked and the I ended up going to bed early. Anyway, I have cancelled the Flood Watch for the area, the only areas of Flooding that occured have been across Southern Vermont, and Northeastern New York. So far all other areas are behaving at this point. Rivers are cresting, or receding at this time.

     Winter is not done quite yet, snow should develop overnight, and become heavy at times. This is associated with a low pressure system that will move from the Southern Great Lakes region to near Long Island. Some mesoscale banding is possible which could result in some heavy snowfall rates for a time Monday morning. The monday morning commute will likely be difficult at best for some areas. One problem with the system is how far North the Snow line will be. It appears that it will have a rather Sharp cutoff, some models are indicating this line to be towards the Northeast Kingdom, and some indicate it being across Central Vermont, and Northeastern New York. At this time, I feel the cut off line will be across portions of the Northeast Kingdom in Vermont. Only time will tell. Stay tuned!


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Sorry for any mis-spellings, spell check is not working.

Ice Jam Flooding Threat Returns

Local Update...
   Rain & Snowmelt, May Cause Ice Jam Flooding; JRWeather Flood Watch In Effect Until 11PM Sunday Night...

JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
     JRWeather Has Issued A Flood Watch For Franklin, Orleans, Essex, Chittenden, Lamoille, Caledonia, Addison, Washington, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont, and Clinton, Essex, Southwestern St. Lawrence, and Southern Franklin Counties In New York, Until 11PM Sunday Night.

     Significant Rainfall, and Snowmelt late tonight, into tomorrow night, will result in runoff into area waterways, which may result in Ice Jam Flooding.

     Temperatures in the Mid 40'sF to Near 50F has resulted in some snowmelt, and runoff. Rain that will move into the region tonight, will bring anywhere from .25" to as much as 1.00" of rain to the region, within a 12 hour period. This will result in rapid rises on area rivers, and may cause some Ice Jam Flooding.

     The rivers that are at a very high risk of Ice Jam flooding right now are the Missisquoi River in Orleans, and Franklin Counties. The Lamoille River in Lamoille, and Franklin Counties, and The Great Chazy river in Clinton County New York.

     On rivers across Central, and Especially Southern Vermont, where little or no ice remains, will likely not see any Ice Jam flooding, however these areas are supposed to receive the highest rain totals, and that combined with snow melt, and frozen ground will result in enough runoff into area waterways, to potentially produce minor flooding.

     With temperatures expected to drop below freezing Sunday Night, the flood threat will slowly come to an end. A Flood watch is issued when there is the potential for flooding to occur, but not imminent. In this case the potential for ice jam flooding exists. If you live in an area prone to Ice Jam flooding, monitor the waterway closely. At any sign of flooding move immediately to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     There will be no discussion at this time. I will post one later this evening or tonight...


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Review: Major Snowstorm Strikes New Jersey!!

Special Update...
   Largest Snowstorm To Hit Coastal New Jersey In 6 Years!!...

Introduction:
     After an entire winter with well below average snowfall, and only one moderate snowstorm in February of this year, the State of New Jersey endured one of its largest storms since February of 2006. Infact coastal areas had not seen this much snow since the Presidents day storm in 2003!
     Before we get into what happened with this current storm, lets brush over the past two storms mentioned above...


Snowstorm of Feb. 11th-12th, 2006:
     Just over 3 years ago, the state of New Jersey encountered one of its larger snowstorms. Widespread snow totals had ranged from 8-16 inches with a more narrow band of 16-20 inches, and isolated areas of over 20 inches. Areas along, and near the Coast received a general 4-8 inches of snow. The heaviest totals were reported across the Northern half of New Jersey. The highest reported snow total from this storm was 20 inches at East Brunswick, Middlesex County, New Jersey.

Presidents Day Storm of 2003:
     This is one of the most memorable snowstorms in all of weather history for the state of New Jersey since the Blizzard of 1996. The presidents day snowstorm dropped no less then 12 inches at any one spot in the State of New Jersey. Widespread snow totals of 15-20 inches were common, with slightly smaller areas of 20-27 inches across the State. All totals above include coastal areas as well. The highest reported snow total for this storm was 27 inches at Green Pond, Morris County, New Jersey.


March 1st-2nd, 2009 Snowstorm Review:
     About one week in advance weather models were showing the potential of an east coast storm. The way the winter has been however, left meteorologist, and weather enthusiasts leery. Infact the storm never did go nearly as planed as the models had shown just days before. About 2-3 days prior to the storm computer models began indicating that two low pressure system were going to form, instead of just one strong low pressure system. The first would not phase with additional energy being ejected through the center of the Country, southeast towards the Gulf coast. This resulted in two batches of precipitation. The first low pressure system and its associated precipitation of mainly rain/ wintry mix, did not prove to be that significant. The second low pressure system though, that had formed over the southeast, and was being depicted in models to be the more significant storm system, held pretty much up to its potential. The second low pressure system gained strength and significant amounts of moisture as it moved Northeast, and up the east coast.
     As the low pressure system moved near Cape Hatteras, heavy amounts of moisture were being brought into the system, resulting in heavy snow. Also a dry slot, became very distinct on satellite and radar imagery. This dry slot, resulted in the reduction of expected snow totals for NJ, as it easily prevented an additional 2-5 inches of snow from falling. Although significant mesoscale banding made up for the dry slot, along the coast. After the dry slot moved north of the region deformation snow aided by the upper level low lagging behind the surface low over the coastal waters resulted in moderate to occasionally heavy snow to continue until around noontime, for New Jersey. This deformation axis brought an additional 1-5 inches of snow to the region.
     During the height of the storm, Doppler radar estimates indicate that snowfall rates reached up to 3 inches per hour for a time, especially along the coast. Also as the deformation axis moved through snowfall rates once again reached around 2-3 inches per hour, for a short period of time. These very heavy snowfall rates occurred due to strong mesoscale banding, from the impressive dynamics of the storm system.
     As the dry slot moved in prior to the deformation axis snow, winds began increasing, and continued to be strong until Tuesday morning. Sustained winds ranged from 15-25MPH with occasional gusts to 45MPH. This wind resulted in blowing and drifting of the snow. Many schools in New Jersey were closed not only Monday but on Tuesday as well.
     Widespread snow accumulations ranged from 6-10inches for much of interior New Jersey, to a swatch of 10-12 inches along the coast, with isolated areas seeing in excess of 12 inches of snow across Eastern New Jersey, the largest area of 12+ inches of snow occurred in Ocean County New Jersey just south, and east of Brick, NJ along a line from Mantoloking to Silverton, and points south and east to Barnegat Pines and over to Island Beach State Park. The highest reported snow total from this storm was 13.5 inches in Colts Neck, Monmouth County, New Jersey. Below are few snow totals from the storm...

Atlantic County
Northfield - 12.4"
Atlantic City - 11.3"
Estell Manor - 10.3"
Egg Harbor City - 9.0"

Burlington County
New Lisbon - 10.5"
Tabernacle - 9.7"
Mount Holly - 9.0"
Marlton - 6.0"

Cape May County
Eldora - 10.5"
Dennisville - 10.2"
Seaville - 9.5"
Petersburg - 9.0"
Woodbine - 9.0"
Wildwood Crest - 6.8"
North Cape May - 6.2"
Cape May Point - 4.5"

Monmouth County
Colts Neck - 13.5"
Freehold - 12.5"
Holmdel - 12.0"
Farmingdale - 10.0"
Tinton Falls - 9.5"

Ocean County
Barnegat Light - 12.5"
Point Pleasent - 11.0"
Bayville - 10.5"
Tuckerton - 10.5"
Whiting - 10.5"
Harvey Cedars - 10.0"
Brick - 9.0"

Sussex County
Hopatcong - 10.6"
Sparta - 8.5"
Wantage - 6.0"
Newton - 4.0"

     Snowfall totals are courtesy of the National Weather Service, its associated Skywarn spotters, employees, and ham operators, as well as the general public. Also a special thanks to my Aunt, and cousins for giving me up to date conditions, and snowfall measurements throughout the storm.


Conclusion:
     This winter storm was easily the most significant storm, the state of New Jersey has experienced in the past 3 years. Coastal, and near coastal areas of Ocean, Atlantic, and Cape May Counties have not seen a storm like this for the past 6 years.
     Along with these storms, looking back at winter weather history from 2000 - Current, I have put together some statistics, on winter storms. I do want to urge this is using data from 2000 - Current, not since records began back in the late 1800's. So with the data I gathered on average since 2000, 1-3 significant snowfalls of 4 inches or more occur every year. With only 1 major winter storm producing widespread 10 or more inches of snow only once per 3-5 years. Especially along the coastal areas. With that said, for any snow lovers who happen to live in the snow deprived (Compared to New England) state of New Jersey, then you will likely have to wait another 3-5 years for a big storm. This goes especially for coastal areas. In far Northwestern New Jersey larger snow totals occur a bit more often. Until the next big winter storm, enjoy!!!


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Image Courtesy Of The National Weather Service Out Of Mount Holly...

Snow Winding Down Across Vermont

Local Update...
   JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect Until 1AM Tuesday...

JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Has Continued The Winter Storm Warning for Lamoille, Orleans, Washington, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, and Eastern Addison Counties In Vermont Until 1AM Tuesday.

     Snow will continue to tapper off tonight, additional accumulations through 1AM will range from 1-3 inches with the highest amounts near Jay Peak, Camels Hump, and Smugglers notch. This will bring total snow accumulations of 6-9 inches with locally higher amounts near 10 inches near Jay Peak, Camels Hump, and Smugglers Notch. Along with snow, winds will continue to gust up to 30MPH tonight, and into tomorrow afternoon. This will cause significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for moderate to heavy amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Snow is winding down across the region. I have continued the Winter Storm Warning for a few extra hours. The ending time has changed from 11PM tonight, to 1AM Tuesday. Snow although not showing up that impressive on composite radar is still coming down across the Western Slopes. In the Champlain Valley only flurries, and a few pockets of light snow continue. The overall trend though is for the snow to tapper off. Total snow accumulations along the Western slopes of the Green mountains will range from 6-9 inches with some locally higher amounts.
     Snow totals so far have ranged from 1-3 inches in the Champlain Valley, with isolated 4 inch amounts around the Champlain Valley. It does not appear that much of the Valley had witnessed Advisory Criteria snow unfortunately. We were somewhat robbed, by very dry air. Across the Western slopes of the Green mountains, and areas adjacent to the Western slopes such as Sheldon springs have received 2-6 inches of snow, with Sheldon Springs reporting 7 inches. There average snowfall may be higher across the Western slopes, but there is not enough reports at this time to know. It appears that Warning criteria also may have only been isolated throughout the Western slopes. But before I call that as a sure thing, we will wait until the snow has come to an end. As the Western slopes could pick up an additional 1-3 inches. Although the 3 inch amounts would be confined to Jay Peak, Camels Hump, Smugglers Notch, and perhaps as far south as Killington. I have updated the maps. Stay tuned!


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Winter Storm Continues To Impact The Region

Local Update...
   JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect From Until 11PM Tonight; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect 8PM Tonight...

JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Has Continued The Winter Storm Warning for Lamoille, Orleans, Washington, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, and Eastern Addison Counties In Vermont Until 11PM Tonight.

     Snow will continue, heavy at times today, especially across the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. Total snow accumulations by late tonight will range from 6-9 inches with locally higher amounts. Along with significant snow, winds will be gusting up to 35MPH during the day today. This will cause significant blowing and drifting of the snow. Hazardous travel conditions are likely for this evenings commute.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for moderate to heavy amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather has continued the Winter Weather Advisory For Western Franklin, Western Chittenden, Western Addison, and Western Rutland Counties in Vermont, and Clinton, and Essex Counties In New York Until 8PM Tonight.

     Snow will continue to day and be occasionally heavy at times. Total snow accumulations by tonight will range from 3-6 inches. Along with these snow accumulations, winds will be gusting up to 30MPH during the day today. This will cause blowing and drifting of the snow. Travel will likely be hazardous for the evening commute.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when there is a strong likelihood of significant but not severe winter weather. In this case the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for light to moderate amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Yes I had to change things once again. Instead of waiting it out, to see what the precipitation shield would do, I cancelled the Advisory off the untrusted models. Now that the snow has overspread the region, I have had to re-issue the Advisory for Grand Isle County Vermont, and Clinton, and Essex Counties in New York. Infact some of the moderate snow has made it into Southern Franklin County NY as well. With light snow all the way into St. Lawrence County. The Warnings I did have to change, as the heavy snow was not as widespread as thought, due to the dry slot, and the surface low pulling away from the upper level low faster then expected. The only place with a warning left in place by JRWeather is the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. The National Weather Service in Burlington has already done the same thing, but the National Weather Service in Albany still feels Warning criteria snow will fall across Bennington, and Windham Counties in Southern Vermont, so they remain under a Warning by the NWS. I don't see Warning criteria snow being widespread enough down there to warrant a warning. So I am still calling for 6-9 inches in the Warning area, and 3-6 inches in the Advisory area. Make sure to view the maps below, to see what County/ portion of a county you fall under.
    Radar is currently showing moderate snow heavy at times across the region. The southern edge of the snow was near the Southern portions of the NJ/PA border, however over the past hour or so, some more precipitation has developed down near Washington DC, this precipitation has grown in areal coverage and intensity, and appears to be moving to the North-Northeast. This will have to be watched, as this could prolong the snowfall for our region, depending on whether or not it will stay intact or not. Eitherway this storm is one that will continue to be watched for any further changes. Stay tuned!


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Nor'easter To Overspread Our Region This Morning

Local Update...
   JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect Until 11PM Monday Night; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect Until 8PM Monday Night...

JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Has Continued The Winter Storm Warning for Orleans, Essex, Lamoille, Caledonia, Washington, Orange, Windsor, Bennington, Windham, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, Eastern Addison, and Eastern Rutland Counties In Vermont From Until 11PM Monday Night.

     Snow will continue to overspread the area, and become occasionaly heavy at times, especially across eastern Vermont. Total snow accumulations by Monday night will range from 6-9 inches with locally higher amounts in eastern Vermont, and the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. Moisture on the back side of the system, may result in more upslope snow, which could enhance totals in the Northern Green Mountains of Vermont. Along with significant snow, winds will be increasing into the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 35MPH during the day Monday. This will cause significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for moderate to heavy amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Travel will become hazardous Monday morning, and last into the evening hours. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather has continued the Winter Weather Advisory For Western Franklin, Western Chittenden, Western Addison, and Western Rutland Counties in Vermont Until 8PM Monday Night.

     Snow will continue to overspread the area this morning, and become moderate at times. Total snow accumulations by Monday night will range from 3-6 inches. The lowest amounts will be near Lake Champlain. Along with significant snow, winds will be increasing into the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 35MPH during the day Monday. This will cause significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when there is a strong likelihood of significant but not severe winter weather. In this case the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for moderate amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     I had to make a few changes. I have pulled New York out of the Advisory completely, as it appears the heaviest snow will remain to the east. Even areas of the Champlain Valley in Vermont, closest to the Lake will not even see Advisory amounts, but further inland in the Valley, places should be able to pull off 3-6 inches of snow. Western Slopes and points east continue to look as if they will receive 6-9 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts in Eastern Vermont, and the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains.
     As far as the evolution of the storm, models still are not something that can be trusted at this point. Earlier the initialization had shown the models were too far east, with the placement of the low pressure system, however most of the models have remained the same if not tracking it slightly further to the east now. Currently the upper level low, which you can clearly see rotating in water vapor imagery is over Central portions of North, and South Carolina. While the surface low pressure is northeast of that between the Delmarva Peninsula, and Cape Hatteras. The upper level low is weakening as you can clearly see its rotation is not as evident as earlier, to further complicate things, is the fact a dry slot is moving in just south of New Jersey, and pushing north rapidly. The dry slot is trying to fill in, but does not appear to be having much luck. Another problem for our region is the fact that there is quite a bit of dry air at the surface, and its going to take some time, once the snow finally arrives here, to make it to the ground. Yet once it starts to fall, it wont take much to accumulate as it will be very fluffy, with a snow:liquid ratio of around 18:1.
     So, with the ratio stated above, of 18:1 we will only need to pick up .15-.35 inches of liquid to equal 3-6 inches of snow. For eastern Vermont models indicate as much as a half inch of liquid equivalent falling. So it will only take .35-.50 inches of liquid to equal 6-9 inches of snow, and with any meso features that set up, it could produce locally higher amounts. I will admit though, I am still having a hard time with whether or not the Champlain Valley is going to be needed in an Advisory at all. At this point though, I will keep the Advisory up for the Valley. Only time will tell.


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Nor'easter To Impact Vermont, and New York

Local Update...
   Nor'easter To Impact The Region; JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect From 10PM Tonight Until 10PM Monday Night; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect From 10PM Tonight Until 8PM Monday Night...

JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Has Issued A Winter Storm Warning for Orleans, Essex, Lamoille, Caledonia, Washington, Orange, Windsor, Bennington, Windham, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, Eastern Addison, and Eastern Rutland Counties In Vermont From 10PM Tonight Until 10PM Monday Night.

     Low pressure over the Southeast United States will track Northeast, and up the coast, and eventually into the Canadian Maritimes by Monday Evening. The result will more snow for the region.

     Snow will begin late this evening or early Monday morning, and become occasionally heavy at times, especially across eastern Vermont. Total snow accumulations by Monday night will range from 6-9 inches with locally higher amounts in eastern Vermont. Moisture on the back side of the system, may result in more upslope snow, which could enhance totals in the Northern Green Mountains of Vermont. Along with significant snow, winds will be increasing into the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 35MPH during the day Monday. This will cause significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for heavy amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Travel will become hazardous Monday morning, and last into the evening hours. Stay tuned for further updates.



JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory For Grand Isle, Western Franklin, Western Chittenden, Western Addison, and Western Rutland Counties in Vermont, and Clinton, and Essex, Franklin Counties in Northern New York From 10PM Tonight Until 8PM Monday Night.

     Low pressure over the Southeast United States will track Northeast, up the east coast, and eventually into the Canadian Maritimes by Monday Evening. The result will be more snow for the region.

     Snow will begin late this evening or early Monday morning, and become moderate at times. Total snow accumulations by Monday night will range from 3-6 inches. Moisture on the back side of the system, may result in more upslope snow, which could enhance totals in the Mountainous terrain of Clinton, and Essex Counties, which could locally enhance snow totals. Along with significant snow, winds will be increasing into the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 35MPH during the day Monday. This will cause significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when there is a strong likelihood of significant but not severe winter weather. In this case the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for moderate amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Continued westward trend in models, has resulted in an issuance of a Winter Storm Watch by the National Weather Service in Burlington, and Winter Storm Warning for Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont, by the National Weather Service in Albany. I have went ahead and issued a Winter Storm warning for the Western slopes of the Green Mountains, and points east, for the potential of 6-9 inches of snow. For the Champlain Valley of New York, and Vermont as well as the mountainous terrain of Clinton, and Essex Counties of New York, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect, for the potential of 3-6 inches of snow.
     Even up to this point, models are still in slight question, as they continue to inch further West with each run. Any further shift to the west or east will greatly impact snow totals. Of additional concern is the possibility of the Northern Greens to be in a good placement for significant upslope snow, on the back end of the system. Conditions will continue to be monitored closely and further updates will be issued. Stay tuned!


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