Nor'easter To Overspread Our Region This Morning

Local Update...
   JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect Until 11PM Monday Night; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect Until 8PM Monday Night...

JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Has Continued The Winter Storm Warning for Orleans, Essex, Lamoille, Caledonia, Washington, Orange, Windsor, Bennington, Windham, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, Eastern Addison, and Eastern Rutland Counties In Vermont From Until 11PM Monday Night.

     Snow will continue to overspread the area, and become occasionaly heavy at times, especially across eastern Vermont. Total snow accumulations by Monday night will range from 6-9 inches with locally higher amounts in eastern Vermont, and the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. Moisture on the back side of the system, may result in more upslope snow, which could enhance totals in the Northern Green Mountains of Vermont. Along with significant snow, winds will be increasing into the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 35MPH during the day Monday. This will cause significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for moderate to heavy amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Travel will become hazardous Monday morning, and last into the evening hours. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather has continued the Winter Weather Advisory For Western Franklin, Western Chittenden, Western Addison, and Western Rutland Counties in Vermont Until 8PM Monday Night.

     Snow will continue to overspread the area this morning, and become moderate at times. Total snow accumulations by Monday night will range from 3-6 inches. The lowest amounts will be near Lake Champlain. Along with significant snow, winds will be increasing into the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 35MPH during the day Monday. This will cause significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when there is a strong likelihood of significant but not severe winter weather. In this case the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for moderate amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     I had to make a few changes. I have pulled New York out of the Advisory completely, as it appears the heaviest snow will remain to the east. Even areas of the Champlain Valley in Vermont, closest to the Lake will not even see Advisory amounts, but further inland in the Valley, places should be able to pull off 3-6 inches of snow. Western Slopes and points east continue to look as if they will receive 6-9 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts in Eastern Vermont, and the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains.
     As far as the evolution of the storm, models still are not something that can be trusted at this point. Earlier the initialization had shown the models were too far east, with the placement of the low pressure system, however most of the models have remained the same if not tracking it slightly further to the east now. Currently the upper level low, which you can clearly see rotating in water vapor imagery is over Central portions of North, and South Carolina. While the surface low pressure is northeast of that between the Delmarva Peninsula, and Cape Hatteras. The upper level low is weakening as you can clearly see its rotation is not as evident as earlier, to further complicate things, is the fact a dry slot is moving in just south of New Jersey, and pushing north rapidly. The dry slot is trying to fill in, but does not appear to be having much luck. Another problem for our region is the fact that there is quite a bit of dry air at the surface, and its going to take some time, once the snow finally arrives here, to make it to the ground. Yet once it starts to fall, it wont take much to accumulate as it will be very fluffy, with a snow:liquid ratio of around 18:1.
     So, with the ratio stated above, of 18:1 we will only need to pick up .15-.35 inches of liquid to equal 3-6 inches of snow. For eastern Vermont models indicate as much as a half inch of liquid equivalent falling. So it will only take .35-.50 inches of liquid to equal 6-9 inches of snow, and with any meso features that set up, it could produce locally higher amounts. I will admit though, I am still having a hard time with whether or not the Champlain Valley is going to be needed in an Advisory at all. At this point though, I will keep the Advisory up for the Valley. Only time will tell.


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