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Friday, February 29, 2008
8:30PM Clipper Update
Everything appears to be going as planned. Radar would make you believe Snow has over spread a good portion of the area, however this is only virga. (Precipitation that shows up on radar, but the lower atmosphere is so dry that it evaporated prior to reaching the ground) however snow should be falling across all of Northern New York, All of Vermont, and All of New Hampshire by 2AM. Snow could be heavy at times until 6AM, especially across Southern Vermont, and New Hampshire, particularly the western slopes of the southern green mountains, where the highest accumulations of snow will fall. Below is my slightly updated snowfall map, just to include a 8 - 12 inch area across the western slopes of the southern green mountains. Stay tunned to any further updates...
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Thursday, February 28, 2008
Clipper System To Bring Significant Snow
Hello Again everyone,
As its been all year, here we are once again to talk about ANOTHER snow storm. This time it has a bit of a different twist. Instead of being a coastal storm or a western tracking storm with a messy mix, it is going to be a fairly potent Alberta clipper that will intensify a bit off the coast. Nothing record breaking, or monumental, however more snow to add to the amazing season total.
As stated above an Alberta clipper will drop down from Canada (obviously right) across Northern New York, into Central New England and off the Coast of New England by Friday Night. This will be a short lived storm, but will bring a rather heavy burst of snow for a few hours. Snow totals will range from 2 - 5 inches across the Champlain Valley of Vermont westward into Northern New York, and 5 - 8 inches across the remainder of Vermont, and all of New Hampshire with local amounts near 10 inches across the Western slopes of the southern green mountains of Vermont, and across Central and Southern New Hampshire. Below is a map of my forecasted snowfall totals...
Also stay tunned for the potential of a strong storm in the Monday Night - Wednesday Night time frame. As of now though is appears to be another one of those western sliding storm, bringing a messy mix, with more rain this time. But it's still worth watching.
As its been all year, here we are once again to talk about ANOTHER snow storm. This time it has a bit of a different twist. Instead of being a coastal storm or a western tracking storm with a messy mix, it is going to be a fairly potent Alberta clipper that will intensify a bit off the coast. Nothing record breaking, or monumental, however more snow to add to the amazing season total.
As stated above an Alberta clipper will drop down from Canada (obviously right) across Northern New York, into Central New England and off the Coast of New England by Friday Night. This will be a short lived storm, but will bring a rather heavy burst of snow for a few hours. Snow totals will range from 2 - 5 inches across the Champlain Valley of Vermont westward into Northern New York, and 5 - 8 inches across the remainder of Vermont, and all of New Hampshire with local amounts near 10 inches across the Western slopes of the southern green mountains of Vermont, and across Central and Southern New Hampshire. Below is a map of my forecasted snowfall totals...
Also stay tunned for the potential of a strong storm in the Monday Night - Wednesday Night time frame. As of now though is appears to be another one of those western sliding storm, bringing a messy mix, with more rain this time. But it's still worth watching.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
9PM Nor'easter Update
Significant changes have been made to snowfall totals. This is looking more like an elevational storm to an extent. Across Northern New York, and Western Vermont, it will be elevation dependent, due to the fact temps are hovering around freezing in the Valley's and temps into the mid 20's in the higher elevations. The other elevational dependent factor is with the wrap around/ upslope snow. Significant wrap around precipitation looked like it was going to produce a large amount of snow, even in the valleys, however I dont feel this will occur, as precip is already diminishing in areal coverage/ intensity across Northern New York, and Western Vermont. Closer to the low pressure system in Eastern Vermont, and New Hampshire, where temps stay near freezing, even in the lower elevation, precipitation will be much more intense and will be able to accumulate. Still highest amounts in the higher elevations, but generally higher snow totals across that area. Below is my updated snowfall forecast, all areas could see locally higher amounts, but most significant amounts will be along the western slopes of the green mountains, and higher elevations of New Hampshire. Isolated amounts exceeding 12 inches is possible in those areas (this is not depicted on the map). One thing I would like to mention is, I am a bit worried that in the Champlain Valley region of Vermont there could be significantly more snow then 3-8 due to the famous convergence zone that tends to set up in storms that track like this. So this will be a tough storm and the higher snowfall amounts across Northern New York, and Western Vermont will also be dependant on Meso. feautures. However I am not convinced enough that this will occur to paint anything higher then 3-8 on the map. We shall soon see. Have a goodnight, and drive very careful, if you MUST travel.
Nor'easter To Strike The Region!!
Hello Everyone,
Finally we get to talk about a nor'easter. I am sure some of you are saying "What are you talking about, we have had plenty of those this year!" The truth is, we have not really had a true nor'easter, even this storm is a little iffy to call a nor'easter. A nor'easter is an intense storm system that tracks northeast along or near (if inland) the coast. This storm is close enough to call a nor'easter, in my book. So far this year all storms have tracked well west of the area, some have moved east across the area, but non have really originated near the coast and continued to move up the coast, east of the region. This storm will change the common westerly track we have had this ENTIRE winter. Its actually a bit of a suprise, watching the models show another western sliding storm a few days ago, to now a nor'easter riding near/ along the coast up into the gulf of Maine. Truly a nice thing to see.
Anyway enough blabbing and time to get to the forecast of the storm. A 994mb low pressure system currently over Southwestern PA, will continue to slowly strengthen, and move east reaching the southwestern coast of Long Island, then moving northeast, through southern New England, and into the gulf of Maine by Wednesday Morning. Light snow/ mixed precipitation has already overspread much of Northern New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire and will continue into late afternoon, early evening when it will become heavier. Snow will fall heavy at times through the overnight before tapering off to snow showers Wednesday afternoon. Some mixed precipitation will fall across Southern New Hampshire, and Southern Vermont, where this will help cut down on snow totals. Southeastern New Hampshire may witness plain rain for a time tonight into tomorrow.
Total snow accumulations will range from 3-6 inches across Southeastern New Hampshire to 6-12 inches across South Central New Hampshire, Southern Vermont, the Entire Champlain Valley, and all of Northern New York, to 12+ inches across Northern and Central New Hampshire as well as much of Vermont. For New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire, the higher elevations could see locally higher amounts, especially in Vermont. Below is a map of snowtotals, and NWS current alerts, as well as my own current alerts...
Finally we get to talk about a nor'easter. I am sure some of you are saying "What are you talking about, we have had plenty of those this year!" The truth is, we have not really had a true nor'easter, even this storm is a little iffy to call a nor'easter. A nor'easter is an intense storm system that tracks northeast along or near (if inland) the coast. This storm is close enough to call a nor'easter, in my book. So far this year all storms have tracked well west of the area, some have moved east across the area, but non have really originated near the coast and continued to move up the coast, east of the region. This storm will change the common westerly track we have had this ENTIRE winter. Its actually a bit of a suprise, watching the models show another western sliding storm a few days ago, to now a nor'easter riding near/ along the coast up into the gulf of Maine. Truly a nice thing to see.
Anyway enough blabbing and time to get to the forecast of the storm. A 994mb low pressure system currently over Southwestern PA, will continue to slowly strengthen, and move east reaching the southwestern coast of Long Island, then moving northeast, through southern New England, and into the gulf of Maine by Wednesday Morning. Light snow/ mixed precipitation has already overspread much of Northern New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire and will continue into late afternoon, early evening when it will become heavier. Snow will fall heavy at times through the overnight before tapering off to snow showers Wednesday afternoon. Some mixed precipitation will fall across Southern New Hampshire, and Southern Vermont, where this will help cut down on snow totals. Southeastern New Hampshire may witness plain rain for a time tonight into tomorrow.
Total snow accumulations will range from 3-6 inches across Southeastern New Hampshire to 6-12 inches across South Central New Hampshire, Southern Vermont, the Entire Champlain Valley, and all of Northern New York, to 12+ inches across Northern and Central New Hampshire as well as much of Vermont. For New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire, the higher elevations could see locally higher amounts, especially in Vermont. Below is a map of snowtotals, and NWS current alerts, as well as my own current alerts...
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
12AM Winter Storm Update
Hello Everyone,
Just wanted to update on the delayed timing of precipitation, and a very quick discussion on the storm. Due to strong arctic air, snows onset was delayed by several hours from my previous forecast. I was a tad bit early on those numbers as it was, it was late, and I was tired, needed to get to bed, so I made a mistake. Whoops! Who doesnt right?
Anyway back to weather...Currently impressive warm air advection is occuring with snow falling across New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire now. Snow is falling moderate to heavy at times. Nearly all areas should get in on some heavy snow with rates of one inch per hour for a couple hours. I still feel some forecasts are too high on snowfall accumulation. Especially with intruding dryslot being drawn in from an upper level low near the great lakes region, while the primary low continues to form east of the Mississippi River Vallet. Down below is a saved radar shot, that depicts where the drier air is.
Either way my snowfall forecast went up, but not as high as some forecasters have, especially across Northern Vermont, and Northern New York. Other then those areas, my accumulations forecast is similar...
Just wanted to update on the delayed timing of precipitation, and a very quick discussion on the storm. Due to strong arctic air, snows onset was delayed by several hours from my previous forecast. I was a tad bit early on those numbers as it was, it was late, and I was tired, needed to get to bed, so I made a mistake. Whoops! Who doesnt right?
Anyway back to weather...Currently impressive warm air advection is occuring with snow falling across New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire now. Snow is falling moderate to heavy at times. Nearly all areas should get in on some heavy snow with rates of one inch per hour for a couple hours. I still feel some forecasts are too high on snowfall accumulation. Especially with intruding dryslot being drawn in from an upper level low near the great lakes region, while the primary low continues to form east of the Mississippi River Vallet. Down below is a saved radar shot, that depicts where the drier air is.
Either way my snowfall forecast went up, but not as high as some forecasters have, especially across Northern Vermont, and Northern New York. Other then those areas, my accumulations forecast is similar...
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Another Winter Storm On The Way...Yes...ANOTHER!!
Hey Everyone,
It seems that just a few days ago we were talking about a snowstorm, and here we are once again talking about another, and wanna know what, you will be hearing of even another, after this one.
Currently Winter Storm Watches are out for All of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Northern New York, for a winter storm forecasted to strike the Northeast. This storm is due to broad low pressure system forming across the Mississippi River Valley. As the low pressure center moves east-northeast its long reaching effects will begin across the northeast. This precipitation will be due to Warm Air Advection, which is when warmer air is moving into an area of cooler air, causing enough lift, and instability to produce clouds, and precipitation. Generally the warmer the air, the higher the likelyhood of clouds and precipitation, and the greater the intensity of that precipitation. So a prolonged period of Warm Air Advection Precipitation is expected, and will be pretty much the main event for Northwestern Vermont, and Northern New York.
Once the low pressure system moves off the New Jersey coast it will then intensify and bring continued precipitation to the Central, Southern, and Eastern portions of the area. In extreme Southern Vermont, and Central and Southern New Hampshire enough warm air will move in aloft to change precip over to Sleet, Freezing Rain, and Perhaps rain for a time, before cooler air works back into the storm. This will unfortunatly cut down on your snow totals.
Now for the timing of the Snow. Across Northern New York, Southern Vermont, and Southwestern New Hampshire. Snow will begin around 12PM and 2PM. Across Northwestern Vermont, Central Vermont, and Central New Hampshire Snow will begin between 2PM and 4PM. For Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire, snow should begin between 4PM and 6PM. Snow will fall Light to Moderate, with an occasional area of heavy snow, especially during the late evening hours. Snow accumulations are below, as well as a map of National Weather Service Current alerts, and a Map of alerts that I feel should be issued, according to my forecasted snowfall amounts...
It seems that just a few days ago we were talking about a snowstorm, and here we are once again talking about another, and wanna know what, you will be hearing of even another, after this one.
Currently Winter Storm Watches are out for All of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Northern New York, for a winter storm forecasted to strike the Northeast. This storm is due to broad low pressure system forming across the Mississippi River Valley. As the low pressure center moves east-northeast its long reaching effects will begin across the northeast. This precipitation will be due to Warm Air Advection, which is when warmer air is moving into an area of cooler air, causing enough lift, and instability to produce clouds, and precipitation. Generally the warmer the air, the higher the likelyhood of clouds and precipitation, and the greater the intensity of that precipitation. So a prolonged period of Warm Air Advection Precipitation is expected, and will be pretty much the main event for Northwestern Vermont, and Northern New York.
Once the low pressure system moves off the New Jersey coast it will then intensify and bring continued precipitation to the Central, Southern, and Eastern portions of the area. In extreme Southern Vermont, and Central and Southern New Hampshire enough warm air will move in aloft to change precip over to Sleet, Freezing Rain, and Perhaps rain for a time, before cooler air works back into the storm. This will unfortunatly cut down on your snow totals.
Now for the timing of the Snow. Across Northern New York, Southern Vermont, and Southwestern New Hampshire. Snow will begin around 12PM and 2PM. Across Northwestern Vermont, Central Vermont, and Central New Hampshire Snow will begin between 2PM and 4PM. For Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire, snow should begin between 4PM and 6PM. Snow will fall Light to Moderate, with an occasional area of heavy snow, especially during the late evening hours. Snow accumulations are below, as well as a map of National Weather Service Current alerts, and a Map of alerts that I feel should be issued, according to my forecasted snowfall amounts...
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Feb. 6th - 7th, 2008 Snowstorm Totals
Well it was definatly a suprising storm. It took many people by suprise, including many forecasters. A storm that over a week ago looked to only produce a sloppy 1-3 inches of snow, ended up producing over 16 inches of snow in numerous areas. Below is a map of storm total snowfall, and below the map is a list of reported snow totals (List Courtesy NWS-Burlington, VT)...
NEW YORK
...CLINTON COUNTY...
PERU..........13.1
SCHUYLER FALLS.........11.8
PLATTSBURGH..........10.0
EAST BEEKMANTOWN..........7.5
ELLENBURG DEPOT..........5.0
...ESSEX COUNTY...
ESSEX.........10.0
...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
TUPPER LAKE...........12.5
SARANAC LAKE..........12.0
MALONE...........4.0
...ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...
POTSDAM..........9.3
PARISHVILLE CENTER.........8.0
VERMONT
...ADDISON COUNTY...
NEW HAVEN..........17.0
CORNWALL..........16.5
JERUSALEM..........16.0
SOUTH LINCOLN..........15.2
BRIDPORT..........10.5
...CALEDONIA COUNTY...
WEST BARNET..........15.5
WALDEN..........14.5
WHEELOCK..........14.5
SUTTON...........13.7
SAINT JOHNSBURY..........11.2
...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...
SOUTH BURLINGTON..........16.6 (NWS OFFICE)
WINOOSKI..........15.5
CHARLOTTE...........15.0
WILLISTON...........15.0
NORTH UNDERHILL..........13.8
WESTFORD..........13.7
ESSEX JUNCTION..........13.3
COLCHESTER POND..........13.0
JERICHO CENTER 3 ESE..........13.0
ESSEX CENTER..........12.0
HINESBURG..........12.0
JERICHO..........12.0
SHELBURNE..........12.0
...ESSEX COUNTY...
EAST HAVEN..........10.0
...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
GEORGIA MOUNTAIN.........12.0
EAST HIGHGATE..........6.0
SWANTON VILLAGE..........5.5
SAINT ALBANS CITY 3 N..........5.0
...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
STOWE..........15.8
MORRISVILLE..........14.0
EDEN.......... 13.0
JEFFERSONVILLE.......... 12.0
CAMBRIDGE.......... 11.3
...ORANGE COUNTY...
CORINTH CORNER..........15.5
BROOKFIELD..........13.2
CHELSEA 2 NW..........12.0
UNION VILLAGE DAM..........6.0
...ORLEANS COUNTY...
EAST ALBANY..........10.5
NEWPORT..........6.0
...RUTLAND COUNTY...
BENSON..........9.0
WEST RUTLAND..........6.0
RUTLAND..........4.1
DANBY.........4.0
...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
MARSHFIELD..........16.0
NORTH CALAIS..........15.0
NORTHFIELD..........13.0
PLAINFIELD VILLAGE..........13.0
WATERBURY CENTER..........13.0
MONTPELIER..........12.0
WAITSFIELD 2 W..........10.0
...WINDSOR COUNTY...
ROCHESTER.........11.0
BETHEL 4 N.........7.3
NORTH HARTLAND DAM..........4.9
SPRINGFIELD..........4.0
CHESTER..........2.5
NEW YORK
...CLINTON COUNTY...
PERU..........13.1
SCHUYLER FALLS.........11.8
PLATTSBURGH..........10.0
EAST BEEKMANTOWN..........7.5
ELLENBURG DEPOT..........5.0
...ESSEX COUNTY...
ESSEX.........10.0
...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
TUPPER LAKE...........12.5
SARANAC LAKE..........12.0
MALONE...........4.0
...ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...
POTSDAM..........9.3
PARISHVILLE CENTER.........8.0
VERMONT
...ADDISON COUNTY...
NEW HAVEN..........17.0
CORNWALL..........16.5
JERUSALEM..........16.0
SOUTH LINCOLN..........15.2
BRIDPORT..........10.5
...CALEDONIA COUNTY...
WEST BARNET..........15.5
WALDEN..........14.5
WHEELOCK..........14.5
SUTTON...........13.7
SAINT JOHNSBURY..........11.2
...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...
SOUTH BURLINGTON..........16.6 (NWS OFFICE)
WINOOSKI..........15.5
CHARLOTTE...........15.0
WILLISTON...........15.0
NORTH UNDERHILL..........13.8
WESTFORD..........13.7
ESSEX JUNCTION..........13.3
COLCHESTER POND..........13.0
JERICHO CENTER 3 ESE..........13.0
ESSEX CENTER..........12.0
HINESBURG..........12.0
JERICHO..........12.0
SHELBURNE..........12.0
...ESSEX COUNTY...
EAST HAVEN..........10.0
...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
GEORGIA MOUNTAIN.........12.0
EAST HIGHGATE..........6.0
SWANTON VILLAGE..........5.5
SAINT ALBANS CITY 3 N..........5.0
...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
STOWE..........15.8
MORRISVILLE..........14.0
EDEN.......... 13.0
JEFFERSONVILLE.......... 12.0
CAMBRIDGE.......... 11.3
...ORANGE COUNTY...
CORINTH CORNER..........15.5
BROOKFIELD..........13.2
CHELSEA 2 NW..........12.0
UNION VILLAGE DAM..........6.0
...ORLEANS COUNTY...
EAST ALBANY..........10.5
NEWPORT..........6.0
...RUTLAND COUNTY...
BENSON..........9.0
WEST RUTLAND..........6.0
RUTLAND..........4.1
DANBY.........4.0
...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
MARSHFIELD..........16.0
NORTH CALAIS..........15.0
NORTHFIELD..........13.0
PLAINFIELD VILLAGE..........13.0
WATERBURY CENTER..........13.0
MONTPELIER..........12.0
WAITSFIELD 2 W..........10.0
...WINDSOR COUNTY...
ROCHESTER.........11.0
BETHEL 4 N.........7.3
NORTH HARTLAND DAM..........4.9
SPRINGFIELD..........4.0
CHESTER..........2.5
Thursday, February 7, 2008
2AM Storm Update
&nsbp A very impressive situation has unfolded with this storm. I have had to update snow totals. I am extremly impressed with this. What only a few days ago looked like a 1-3 sloppy inches of snow has turned into an unexpected significant snowstorm. At Midnight the National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont was reporting 11.3 inches of snow. With moderate to heavy snow continuing to fall. An additional 3-7 inches of snow is expected to fall across Essex County New York, Chittenden, Addison, Washington, Caledonia, Rutland, and Windsor Counties in Vermont. Bringing storm totals in the 10-18 inch range for that area. With locally higher amounts.
&nsbp An interesting note, just 7 miles south of the international border in Swanton Vermont, only 2 inches of snow has fallen, but 35 miles south of the international border in Burlington Vermont 11.3 inches of snow has fallen. As you can see the storm has a very sharp cutoff point.
&nsbp I will admit this storm has taken me by suprise, and I am quite positive from the way things have unfolded with advisories and warnings that this storm system has taken the NWS by suprise. Even to this point, weather models seem to refuse to pick up on the amount of precipitation of this storm. Updated snowfall forecast is below...
&nsbp An interesting note, just 7 miles south of the international border in Swanton Vermont, only 2 inches of snow has fallen, but 35 miles south of the international border in Burlington Vermont 11.3 inches of snow has fallen. As you can see the storm has a very sharp cutoff point.
&nsbp I will admit this storm has taken me by suprise, and I am quite positive from the way things have unfolded with advisories and warnings that this storm system has taken the NWS by suprise. Even to this point, weather models seem to refuse to pick up on the amount of precipitation of this storm. Updated snowfall forecast is below...
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
12AM Storm Update
Hello Once Again,
Shortly after my last post, the National Weather Service sent out an update to upgrade nearly everyone to a Winter Storm Warning. The only counties not in a Warning prior to 11PM were Franklin, Orleans, Essex, Lamoille, and Caledonia Counties in Vermont, Coos County in New Hampshire, and St. Lawrence, Franklin, and Clinton Counties in New York. All counties except Coos County in New Hampshire, and Northern, and Southwestern St. Lawrence County have been upgraded to a winter storm warning. Below are two maps, the first one is the alerts the National Weather Service had issued at around this time last night. The second map is of the current alerts. I have made no changes to my snowfall forecast. So the previous post's accumulation maps remain the same. Below the maps is further discussion on the storm.
Now time to have some discussion about the radar, and whats currently going on. Widespread Moderate snow has overspread the region, with some breaks across Northern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire. This is forecasted to fill in as more precipitation moves in from the west. The precipitation shield is quite impressive as it extend from the coast of Eastern Maine all the way to the Central Great Lakes region. Its an unusally elongated band compared to an average storm system, its length is impressive, and means snow will continue to fall into early Thursday afternoon. Roads across the area will become difficult to drive on, in areas of the heaviest snow, road conditions will be dangerous. Use extreme caution if you must travel...
Shortly after my last post, the National Weather Service sent out an update to upgrade nearly everyone to a Winter Storm Warning. The only counties not in a Warning prior to 11PM were Franklin, Orleans, Essex, Lamoille, and Caledonia Counties in Vermont, Coos County in New Hampshire, and St. Lawrence, Franklin, and Clinton Counties in New York. All counties except Coos County in New Hampshire, and Northern, and Southwestern St. Lawrence County have been upgraded to a winter storm warning. Below are two maps, the first one is the alerts the National Weather Service had issued at around this time last night. The second map is of the current alerts. I have made no changes to my snowfall forecast. So the previous post's accumulation maps remain the same. Below the maps is further discussion on the storm.
Now time to have some discussion about the radar, and whats currently going on. Widespread Moderate snow has overspread the region, with some breaks across Northern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire. This is forecasted to fill in as more precipitation moves in from the west. The precipitation shield is quite impressive as it extend from the coast of Eastern Maine all the way to the Central Great Lakes region. Its an unusally elongated band compared to an average storm system, its length is impressive, and means snow will continue to fall into early Thursday afternoon. Roads across the area will become difficult to drive on, in areas of the heaviest snow, road conditions will be dangerous. Use extreme caution if you must travel...
9:30PM Storm Update...
Hello Everyone,
Several changes have happened over the course of the last 10 hours. Models for the most part are on track but have been wavering the sharp precip cut off line, which is making firecasting snowfall accumulations tricky across the north. With that said, precip has also been forecasted to be more intense and thus far has been more intense further north than expected. Areas such as Burlington Vermont, have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning when last night were only under an advisory for 3 - 7 inches of snow. Now its forecasted to be 6 - 12 which looks very likely. Including the fact that 6 inches of snow had fallen as of 5:30PM this evening, and currently heavy snow is falling in that area, with snowfall rates near 1 inch or a bit more per hour.
Overall major change is snowfall and ice amounts. Forecasted snowfall amounts have increased significantly for pretty much the entire area. Also ice amounts have been adjusted downward, as colder air is forecasted to move in aloft keeping it more snow/sleet, than freezing rain. Significant ice of up to a half inch is still forecasted in some spots however. The changes to precipitation amounts you can see below on the updated maps.
Travel will become increasingly difficult especially across Central, and Southern Vermont overnight, as snowfall rates could reach 2 inches an hour at times. If you must travel, leave plenty of extra time to reach your destination, and drive deffensivly...
Several changes have happened over the course of the last 10 hours. Models for the most part are on track but have been wavering the sharp precip cut off line, which is making firecasting snowfall accumulations tricky across the north. With that said, precip has also been forecasted to be more intense and thus far has been more intense further north than expected. Areas such as Burlington Vermont, have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning when last night were only under an advisory for 3 - 7 inches of snow. Now its forecasted to be 6 - 12 which looks very likely. Including the fact that 6 inches of snow had fallen as of 5:30PM this evening, and currently heavy snow is falling in that area, with snowfall rates near 1 inch or a bit more per hour.
Overall major change is snowfall and ice amounts. Forecasted snowfall amounts have increased significantly for pretty much the entire area. Also ice amounts have been adjusted downward, as colder air is forecasted to move in aloft keeping it more snow/sleet, than freezing rain. Significant ice of up to a half inch is still forecasted in some spots however. The changes to precipitation amounts you can see below on the updated maps.
Travel will become increasingly difficult especially across Central, and Southern Vermont overnight, as snowfall rates could reach 2 inches an hour at times. If you must travel, leave plenty of extra time to reach your destination, and drive deffensivly...
ANOTHER Ice Storm On The Way
Hello Everyone,
Just a few days later, and here we are talking about yet again ANOTHER ice storm. But this time with a very significant snowfall ontop of the ice. This time it will be across southern areas of Vermont, and New Hampshire, as well with this storm ice accumulations are expected to be higher than the previous one.
A cold front dropping from the north will stall out across central New York, and New England early Wednesday Morning. While this occurs a low pressure system that is currently forming over the mid-western states will track east along this front. Bringing with is Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain, and a little bit of plain rain.
Precipitation will begin shortly across Central and Southern Vermont, and New Hampshire as rain/ freezing rain, and sleet. This will change to all freezing rain by mid-morning Wednesday. Freezing rain will continue across Central and Southern areas through much of the day wednesday before changing to Sleet/Snow by Wednesday night into Thursday. As much as three quarters of an inch of ice could accumulate across Southern Vermont, and New Hampshire. With much lesser amounts the fursther north you go. Towards the Canadian border of New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire precipitation amounts will be much lower, and primarily be in the form of snow/sleet, although some freezing rain could mix in for a few hours at the onset. Total snow accumulations will range from as little as 1 - 3 inches along the Canadian border, to as much as 12 inches or perhaps a bit more across Southern Areas. Winter Weather Advisories, and Winter Storm Warning are in effect.
Below are my forecasted snow, and ice totals...
Just a few days later, and here we are talking about yet again ANOTHER ice storm. But this time with a very significant snowfall ontop of the ice. This time it will be across southern areas of Vermont, and New Hampshire, as well with this storm ice accumulations are expected to be higher than the previous one.
A cold front dropping from the north will stall out across central New York, and New England early Wednesday Morning. While this occurs a low pressure system that is currently forming over the mid-western states will track east along this front. Bringing with is Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain, and a little bit of plain rain.
Precipitation will begin shortly across Central and Southern Vermont, and New Hampshire as rain/ freezing rain, and sleet. This will change to all freezing rain by mid-morning Wednesday. Freezing rain will continue across Central and Southern areas through much of the day wednesday before changing to Sleet/Snow by Wednesday night into Thursday. As much as three quarters of an inch of ice could accumulate across Southern Vermont, and New Hampshire. With much lesser amounts the fursther north you go. Towards the Canadian border of New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire precipitation amounts will be much lower, and primarily be in the form of snow/sleet, although some freezing rain could mix in for a few hours at the onset. Total snow accumulations will range from as little as 1 - 3 inches along the Canadian border, to as much as 12 inches or perhaps a bit more across Southern Areas. Winter Weather Advisories, and Winter Storm Warning are in effect.
Below are my forecasted snow, and ice totals...
Friday, February 1, 2008
Ice Storm On The Way
Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued across much of New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire. For the potential of significant ice, and snow accumulations, possibly resulting in power outages.
Currently a 1008mb developing low pressure system over Southern Indiana will continue to move Northeast, and through the St. Lawrence River Valley, and into Northern New England by Saturday. The track of the storm will place us in the "warm sector" of the storm. However, due to high pressure north of New England will help trap cold air in at the surface. Warm air will move in and flow up and over the cold air trapped at the surface.
Snow should be seen at nearly all places at the onset of the storm, however snow will only last 1-4 hours before rapidly changing to sleet, and freezing rain. Snow showers are ongoing as of now across Central, and Western New York. As well as extreme souther Vermont. Snow will over spread the rest of New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire by 10AM this morning. Snow accumulations prior to the change over will range from a Trace to 2 inches across Southern Vermont, Southern New Hampshire, and Central New York to 1-3 inches across the remainder of Vermont and New Hampshire. With locally higher amounts across Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire. Total ice accumulations will range from .25" - .50" with locally higher amounts across Northern New York. Sleet, Freezing rain, and rain will change over to snow showers after 11PM Friday Night. Accumulating an additional 1-3 inches across the entire region by 8AM Saturday. With isolated higher amounts across the higher elevations. So total snowfall accumulations will range from 2-6 inches across the above mentioned regions. With 5 - 9 inches across Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire.
Too further complicate the situation, winds will increase as well Friday, especially across the higher elevations of Vermont, and New Hampshire. Winds of 15-25MPH with gusts to 45MPH. Winds of this magnitude combined with the wet heavy snow, and ice will help bring down tree limbs and power lines resulting in power outages. The ice accumulations alone will be enough to cause scattered power outages, with the winds, some areas in the higher elevations could see widespread power outages.
Along with the above hazards it is urged if you dont have to travel, then do not. Roads will become snow, and ice covered, and could very well be nearly impassable at times. Below are my forecasted snow and ice accumulation maps of Northern New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire...
Currently a 1008mb developing low pressure system over Southern Indiana will continue to move Northeast, and through the St. Lawrence River Valley, and into Northern New England by Saturday. The track of the storm will place us in the "warm sector" of the storm. However, due to high pressure north of New England will help trap cold air in at the surface. Warm air will move in and flow up and over the cold air trapped at the surface.
Snow should be seen at nearly all places at the onset of the storm, however snow will only last 1-4 hours before rapidly changing to sleet, and freezing rain. Snow showers are ongoing as of now across Central, and Western New York. As well as extreme souther Vermont. Snow will over spread the rest of New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire by 10AM this morning. Snow accumulations prior to the change over will range from a Trace to 2 inches across Southern Vermont, Southern New Hampshire, and Central New York to 1-3 inches across the remainder of Vermont and New Hampshire. With locally higher amounts across Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire. Total ice accumulations will range from .25" - .50" with locally higher amounts across Northern New York. Sleet, Freezing rain, and rain will change over to snow showers after 11PM Friday Night. Accumulating an additional 1-3 inches across the entire region by 8AM Saturday. With isolated higher amounts across the higher elevations. So total snowfall accumulations will range from 2-6 inches across the above mentioned regions. With 5 - 9 inches across Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire.
Too further complicate the situation, winds will increase as well Friday, especially across the higher elevations of Vermont, and New Hampshire. Winds of 15-25MPH with gusts to 45MPH. Winds of this magnitude combined with the wet heavy snow, and ice will help bring down tree limbs and power lines resulting in power outages. The ice accumulations alone will be enough to cause scattered power outages, with the winds, some areas in the higher elevations could see widespread power outages.
Along with the above hazards it is urged if you dont have to travel, then do not. Roads will become snow, and ice covered, and could very well be nearly impassable at times. Below are my forecasted snow and ice accumulation maps of Northern New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire...
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