Strong Winds For Friday

Local Update...
   Strong Wind Gusts Of Up To 50MPH Expected Friday...

JRWeather WIND ADVISORY
     JRWeather Has Issued A Wind Advisory For Grand Isle, Franklin, Chittenden, Addison, Rutland, and Bennington Counties in Vermont and All of Northern Northern New York From 5AM Friday Morning Until 5PM Friday Evening.

     A low pressure system moving through the great lakes region, and its associated cold front, will be responsible for bringing strong winds to the region Friday. Winds will increase from the South-Southwest during the early morning hours. Sustained winds will be in the 15-30MPH range with gusts up to 50MPH, throughout the day. Winds will begin diminishing as precipitation begins falling, due to the cold front. Winds may once again pick up briefly, when the front pushes through later Friday Night.

     A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 30-39MPH or gusts up to 54MPH are expected. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Looks like it will be a windy day tomorrow. A low pressure system will be moving East-Northeast from the Great Lakes region, with a tight pressure gradient, and associated cold front, helping to mix down the winds. The strongest winds should be during the afternoon hours, before the rain falls. The winds will be out of the South-Southwest. These Southerly winds usual have a significant impact on the Champlain Valley, as the Southerly winds like to funnel up the North-South oriented Valley. The St. Lawrence Valley is another Valley that will likely see strong winds as they get downsloped by the Adirondack mountains, and with the winds being somewhat Southwest, they like to funnel up the Southwest to Northeast Oriented Valley. These areas will likely see the strongest wind gusts, along with any Southwest facing slopes in the Northern Adirondacks, and the Green Mountains. Eastern Vermont, will likely see gusts up to 40MPH at times, but that's not enough to Warrant an Advisory. Stay tuned!


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REVIEW: February 22-24th, 2009 Winter Storm

Local Update...
   A Significant Near Blizzard Intensity Winter Storm, Drops Significant Amounts Of Snow On The Region...

OVERVIEW
     Low pressure that stalled out near the Great Lakes region and slowly drifted northeast on February 21-22, spawned a Coastal low pressure system near Long Island on the 22nd. The low then moved Northeast, over Cape cod, into the Gulf of Maine, and eventually up into New Brunswick. It was a storm to remember that's for sure. It shall be remembered for a few things. To name some, the Champlain Valley was the splitting line of moderate snow amounts vs. very heavy snow amounts, Snowfall rates that reached nearly 4 inches per hour, prolonged Champlain Valley convergence, and the significant upslope snows.

THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SPLIT
     The Champlain Valley was the splitting line of this storm. the New York side of the Champlain Valley received a general 4-8 inches, mainly on the lower end of things. The Vermont side, was the most interesting. Towns such as Swanton, Colchester, and Salisbury received anywhere from 2.5 - 5.5 inches of Snow, while anywhere from 2 - 5 miles inland from these locations, places revised upwards of 8 inches of snow. For instance, Swanton, VT received 5.3 inches, while Highgate Center received 8 inches, and just about 5 miles East of Highgate, in Sheldon Springs, they received over 12 inches of snow!! Now to further the craziness Colchester which only received 2.6 inches, was dominated by South Burlington's 8.4 inches. I would imagine some type of terrain shadowing had something to do with that. Although there was a small area of 2-4 inch snowfall from Colchester back to South Hero. In general you can see that the closer to the Lake you were, the less snow. (The Lake temperature of a nearly freezing 33 degrees had nothing to do with this, it was simply where the back edge of heaviest snow decided to cut off.)

HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
      While the coastal low was intensifying, it caused mesoscale bands to form, which are bands of extremely heavy snow. These bands of snow happened to set up from the Western slopes of the Green Mountains, and points east. This was the result of strong moisture inflow, lift, and rapid intensification of the low pressure system. Some reports out of Eastern Vermont, indicated snowfall rates reached a rate of 4 inches per hour. Then, on the 23rd, wrap around, and upslope snow developed. Where once again rates reached 2 inches per hour from time to time.

CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE
     While, the Champlain Valley Convergence did not drop an overly impressive amount of snow, and conditions were not 100% favorable for Champlain Valley convergence to push its full potential, it still occurred. Wrap around moisture that pushed over the Champlain Valley and into the Western slopes of the Greens was aided by a Northwest flow, which converged the moisture in the Valley as well, mainly the Central, and Northern portions of the Champlain Valley. The result was continued snow, for much of the day on the 23rd. Some of this snow was occasionally heavy. This helped add, from as little as 1 inch to as much as 5 inches of additional snow in the Champlain Valley of Vermont. Which helped push expected storm totals from the 4-8 inch range to the 8-12 inch range for a significant portion of the Northern, and Central Champlain Valley.

UPSLOPE SNOW
     This is probably one of the most impressive parts to the storm. Due to a strong, and favorable moist Northwest flow on the back of the departing low pressure system, heavy snow developed along the Western Slopes of the Green mountains for the entire day of the 23rd. Some upslope snow actually lasted into the early afternoon hours on the 24th, although it was no where near as intense as it was on the 23rd. As mentioned in the "Heavy Snowfall Rates" section above. Snowfall rates reached 2 inches per hour at times on the 23rd. This helped boost totals significantly. The upslope snow produced an additional 5-10 inches of snow for the Western Slopes. This helped push widespread storm totals into the 12-18 inch range, with more isolated upslope areas experiencing 18-25 inches. The winner of the most significant upslope snows was eastern Franklin County Vermont, where numerous 18 or more inch amounts were witnessed and where the highest snow total reported from this entire storm occurred, which was Bakersfield, VT, at a total of 25.5 inches.

SUMMARY:
     Overall this was a very significant storm. Another part of this storm that was not mentioned, was the winds. Towards the evening of the 22nd, and early morning of the 23rd winds increased into the 10-20MPH range in the Valleys with gusts to 30MPH, and for the higher elevations/ Western slopes winds were in the 15-25MPH range with gusts to 40MPH. This resulted in significant blowing, and drifting snow. If frequent gusts of 35MPH or higher, would have occurred for 3 consecutive hours, then this could have been classified of a Blizzard for much of the area. However winds fell just short of the criteria. Never-the-less Blizzard like conditions did occur. Below is 3 maps, the first one is the First official forecasted snowfall accumulation map issued by JRWeather on the 21st. The Second is the last official forecasted snowfall accumulation map issued by JRWeather, and the third map is of the actual recorded storm totals across the area.


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Moderate To Heavy Snow Continues

JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Continues The Winter Storm Warning For Orleans, Washington, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, and Eastern Addison Counties In Vermont Until 8PM Monday.

     Wrap around/ upslope snow will continue across the warning area. Snow will be moderate to occasionally heavy a times. An additional 4-8 inches of snow will fall today, across much of the western slopes, with up to 6-12 inches across portions of Far Eastern Franklin, Northeastern Chittenden, Western Lamoille, and Far Western Orleans, bringing storm totals accumulations into the 15-20 inch range for much of the western slopes, with up to 18-30 inches across far eastern Franklin, Northeastern Chittenden, Western Lamoille, and Far Western Orleans.

     Of additional concern is the strong northwest winds, which will be gusting up to 40MPH at times, especially across the Western slopes of the Green Mountains. This will result in significant blowing, and drifting snow, and occasionally near blizzard conditions.

     A Winter Storm Warning Is Issued When Severe Winter Weather is imminent or occurring. In this case the winter storm warning is for heavy amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Travel will continue to be treacherous into Monday evening for the Western slopes of the green mountains. It is recommended to postpone your travel plans if possible. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory For Grand Isle, Western Chittenden, and Western Franklin Counties in Vermont, and Clinton, Southern Franklin, and Southeastern St. Lawrence County In Northern New York Until 8PM Tonight.

     Wrap around/ upslope snow will continue across the advisory area. Snow will be light to moderate with the possibility of some quick heavier bursts of snow. Total snow accumulations by tonight will range from 2-5 inches. This snow will be in addition to the snow we received yesterday.

     Of additional concern is the strong northwest winds, which will be gusting up to 30MPH at times, especially towards the Western slopes of the Green Mountains, and the Western Slopes of the Northern Adirondack Mountains. This will result in significant blowing, and drifting snow.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when significant but not severe winter weather is imminent, or occurring. Travel will continue to be difficult into this evening. Use extreme caution if you must be out driving.


DISCUSSION
     I had to post another update, to include Western Chittenden County in the Winter Weather Advisory. This is mainly for areas east of Burlington. Snow has shifted south, and into Southern Franklin, and Chittenden County. In eastern Chittenden County and Southeastern Franklin County snowfall rates are ranging 1-2 inches per hour. I wouldn't be surprised if it was coming down slightly harder then that in some spots. Some of the current snowfall reports from the Western slope communities include, Richford 18.0 inches, Jay Peak 15.0 inches, Marshfield 13.0 inches, Belvidere Center 12.0 inches, North Montpelier 12.0 inches, Northfield 11.0 inches, Barton 10.5 inches, Hanksville 9.5 inches, Nashville 8.1 inches, South Lincoln 7.0 inches, Enosburgh 6.5 inches, and Ripton 6.5 inches. All reports were between 7AM and 9:30AM. The report from Richford was current. So I expanded the 18+ are on the snowfall map, to include more of Eastern Chittenden County, I have also expanded the 12-18 inch, and 8-12 inch areas as well. Remember the map is for the entire storm, not just today. The area shaded in purple on the map will likely see 18-30 inches of snow. Winds will continue to cause brief white out conditions, and significant blowing and drifting snow. Updated maps below...


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Snow Redevelops Over The Northern Champlain Valley, And Western Slopes of the Green, and Adirondack Mountains

JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Continues The Winter Storm Warning For Orleans, Washington, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, and Eastern Addison Counties In Vermont Until 8PM Monday.

     Wrap around/ upslope snow will continue across the warning area. Snow will be moderate to occasionally heavy a times. An additional 4-8 inches of snow will fall today, across much of the western slopes, with up to 6-10 inches across portions of Far Eastern Franklin, Northeastern Chittenden, Western Lamoille, and Far Western Orleans, bringing storm totals accumulations into the 15-20 inch range for much of the western slopes, with up to 18-28 inches across far eastern Franklin, Northeastern Chittenden, Western Lamoille, and Far Western Orleans.

     Of additional concern is the strong northwest winds, which will be gusting up to 40MPH at times, especially across the Western slopes of the Green Mountains. This will result in significant blowing, and drifting snow, and occasionally near blizzard conditions.

     A Winter Storm Warning Is Issued When Severe Winter Weather is imminent or occurring. In this case the winter storm warning is for heavy amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Travel will continue to be treacherous into Monday evening for the Western slopes of the green mountains. It is recommended to postpone your travel plans if possible. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory For Grand Isle, and Western Franklin Counties in Vermont, and Clinton, Southern Franklin, and Southeastern St. Lawrence County In Northern New York Until 8PM Tonight.

     Wrap around/ upslope snow will continue across the advisory area. Snow will be light to moderate with the possibility of some quick heavier bursts of snow. Total snow accumulations by tonight will range from 2-5 inches. This snow will be in addition to the snow we received yesterday.

     Of additional concern is the strong northwest winds, which will be gusting up to 30MPH at times, especially towards the Western slopes of the Green Mountains, and the Western Slopes of the Northern Adirondack Mountains. This will result in significant blowing, and drifting snow.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when significant but not severe winter weather is imminent, or occurring. Travel will continue to be difficult into this evening. Use extreme caution if you must be out driving.


DISCUSSION
     The storm is not quite done with us yet. Snow has redeveloped, even in the Northern Champlain Valley, as Northwest winds have caused a band of moderate to heavy snow to form across the Northern Champlain Valley, and the Western slopes of the green mountains. Also upslope snows have developed over the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. Last hour Saranac Lake was reporting light snow with visibilities down to 3/4 of a mile, even though radar does not show anything over that area. This is very common for northern new york upslope events. This has caused me to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the extreme northern Champlain Valley, and the Western Slopes of the Northern Adirondack Mountains for a total of 2-5 inches of snow by tonight, this will bring snow totals into the 3-7 inch range for the Northern Adirondacks, and bring totals into the 6-12 inch range for the Northern Champlain Valley. The Winter Storm Warning continues for the Western slopes of the Northern Green Mountains where an additional 4-8 inches is expected by tonight, with some areas recieve as much as an additional 6-10 inches. This will bring storm totals into the 15-20 inch range, with a smaller area of 18-28 inches. A Warning was not issued for the Northern Champlain Valley due to the fact this is over an extended period of time, and the snow has been on and off. The reason for the Warning along the Western slopes of the greens is because there will be substantially more snow, and the snow has been pretty much steady there, through the entire event. If the wrap around snow, is heavier or longer then expected, and winds continue or increase then a Warning may have to be issued for the Northern Champlain Valley. At this time though, it appears an Advisory will work well. Stay tuned. Updated maps below...


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Snowstorm Winding Down; More Snow For The Western Slopes

JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Continues The Winter Storm Warning For Orleans, Essex, Lamoille, Caledonia, Washington, Orange, Windsor, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, Eastern Addison, and Eastern Rutland Counties In Vermont Until 8PM Monday.

     Low pressure moving over Maine and up into New Brunswick will result in snow continuing for portions of the area.

     Light to occasionally moderate Snow will continue tapper off overnight, but begin to redevelop towards morning. As the low pressure system kicks back moisture into the region, on strong northwest winds. This will result in light to moderate snow, with occasional heavy bursts for the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. Total Snow accumulations will range from 8-12 inches across Southern Vermont, and portions of Eastern Vermont by 7AM Monday. For the Western slopes of the green mountains total snow accumulations will range from 15-20 inches with locally higher amounts near Jay Peak by Monday night. The Warning will expire for all areas other then the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains at 7AM Monday morning.

     Of additional concern is the strong northwest winds, which will be gusting up to 35MPH at times, especially across the Western slopes of the Green Mountains. This will result in significant blowing, and drifting snow.

     A Winter Storm Warning Is Issued When Severe Winter Weather is imminent or occuring. In this case the winter storm warning is for heavy amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Travel will continue to be treacherous into Monday evening for the Western slopes of the green mountains. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     I have decided to cancel the entire advisory, and cancel the Warning for Bennington, and Western Rutland Counties. Snow is tapering off across the region. However, snow should redevelop by Monday morning, and continue into the evening hours, especially for the Western slopes of the green mountains. An additional 3-8 inches is possible along the Western slopes of the green mountains by tomorrow evening. This will push totals into the 15-20 inch range for the western slopes. Elsewhere in the Warning area in Vermont 8-12 inches will be the total by tomorrow morning.
     There is also some slight concern the the Northern Champlain Valley could pick up another 2-4 inches tomorrow, if northerly convergence winds set up properly. If this were to happen this would push snow totals across the northern Champlain Valley into the 6-10 inch range. However, I did not upgrade the Advisory to a Warning, and instead cancelled it, due to the fact there is too much uncertainty, and the only thing certain at this point, is snow is tapering off significantly across the Champlain Valley.
     Winds will likely be a concern across the entire region tomorrow, but will have the greatest impact on the Western slopes. Winds will be in the 15-25PM range with gusts to 35mph for the western slopes and higher elevations. For the Champlain valley winds of 10-20MPH with gusts up to 30MPH can be expected. This will result in blowing and drifting of the snow. If you have to travel along the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains, use extreme caution.


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Snowstorm Update

Local Update...
   Snow Continues Across The Region; JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect Until 8PM Monday Night; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect Until 7AM Monday Morning...

JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Continues A Winter Storm Warning for Orleans, Essex, Lamoille, Caledonia, Washington, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, Windham, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, and Eastern Addison Counties In Vermont Until 8PM Monday.

     Low pressure has formed near long Island, and will move Northeast, and up into New Brunswick, by Monday Afternoon. This will result in continued snow across the region.

     Snow will continue occasionally heavy at times this evening, into tonight. The snow will tapper off for much of the Warning area by 7AM tomorrow morning, however snow will continue into the evening hours Monday for the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Total snow accumulations by tomorrow morning will range from 8-12 inches across Southern Vermont, with 12-18 inches across North-Central, Northeast, and portions of Central Vermont. The Western slopes of the green mountains could see locally higher amounts by Monday evening. Along with significant snow, winds will be increasing into the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 35MPH by early Monday morning. This will cause significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for heavy amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Travel will become hazardous Sunday into Monday Morning. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory For Grand Isle, Western Franklin, Western Chittenden, and Western Addison Counties in Vermont, and Clinton, Essex, Franklin, and Southeastern St. Lawrence Counties in Northern New York Until 7AM Monday.

     Low pressure has formed near long Island, and will move Northeast, and up into New Brunswick, by Monday Afternoon. This will result in continued snow across the region.

     Snow will continue moderate at times this evening, into tonight. The snow will tapper off for much of the Advisory area by 7AM tomorrow morning with the exception of Northern New York, where snow should end by 11PM tonight. Total snow accumulations by tomorrow morning will range from 4-8 inches across Northern New York, and the Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York. Along with significant snow, winds will be increasing into the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 30MPH by early Monday morning. This will cause significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when there is a strong likelihood of significant but not severe winter weather. In this case the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for moderate amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     The Champlain Valley looks to miss out on this storm. I have had to cut the Warning for the Champlain Valley due to low snow ratios, and not as much precipitation as initial thought. The Warnings for the Valley had to be dropped to Advisories because this is a long duration event 24 hours or so, and Warning Criteria is 6+ inches within 12 hours or 9+ inches within 24 hours. I don't see Widespread 9 inch amounts falling in the Champlain Valley. If the temperatures were colder then the possibility would be there. But the Advisory will do just fine for the expected 4-8 inches of snow within 24 hours. There is actually something kind of interesting going on. A very small pocket of significantly Warmer air has formed over the extreme Northern Champlain Valley, allowing snow ratios to actually drop to 8:1 - 10:1. Several places which have witnessed these warmer temperatures are Swanton Village VT, with a high of 41F, Grand Isle VT, with a high of 42F, and Rouses Point NY, with a high of 40F. These high temperatures occurred between 1:30PM and 2:30PM. Since then the temperatures have dropped down closer to freezing, with the exception of Swanton Village, and Grand Isle. Much of the rest of the region however, remains at or below freezing. So the warmer areas in the Valley will likely receive the lower end amounts of the Advisory. Although when winds turn to the North, conditions will have to be monitored for Champlain Valley convergence, which could make up for some of the lower snow totals.
     For the rest of the region, Northern, and Western St. Lawrence County is out of the Advisory as snow has pretty much come to an end, and additional snowfall will be in the 1-2 inch range at best. For the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains and east, heavy snow totals are still expected, with 12-18 inches for the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains, and Northeastern Vermont, with 8-12 inches elsewhere in Vermont, within the Warning. Isolated totals of 24 inches of snow could fall in places such as Jay Peak, Stowe, and Killington, as the storm turns into an upslope event by Monday. Stay tuned for further updates. Updated maps are below...


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Significant Snowstorm For The Region Sunday Into Monday; JRWeather Alerts In Effect

Local Update...
   Significant Snowfall On The Way; JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect From 6AM Sunday Until 6AM Monday; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect From 11PM Tonight Until 11PM Sunday Night...

JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Has Issued A Winter Storm Warning for All Of Vermont From 6AM Sunday Until 6AM Monday.

     A low pressure system expected to move near the St. Lawrence Valley will redevelop off the New Jersey coast, and move Northeast, up into Northern Maine by Monday afternoon. This will result in significant snowfall for the region.

     Snow will begin by 10AM across the entire region, and become heavy at times, especially into the late afternoon and evening hours. Total snowfall accumulations will range from 6-12 inches in the Western third of Vermont, and 12-18 inches across the Eastern two thirds of Vermont. Isolated higher amounts are possible near Jay Peak, and Smugglers Notch, as well as places in the Northeast Kingdom. Along with significant snow, winds will be increasing into the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 35MPH by late evening. Isolated gusts of up to 45MPH are possible along the Western slopes of the Green Mountains, and the higher elevations of eastern Vermont. This will cause significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for heavy amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Travel will become hazardous Sunday into Monday Morning. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory For All Of Northern New York From 11PM Tonight Until 11PM Sunday.

     A low pressure system expected to move near the St. Lawrence Valley will redevelop off the New Jersey coast, and move Northeast, up into Northern Maine by Monday afternoon. This will result in significant snowfall for the region.

     Snow will begin by 10PM across much of New York, and may become occasionally heavy at times. Total snowfall accumulations by Sunday night, will range from 3-6 inches with locally higher amounts. Especially in the Western slopes of the Northern Adirondack mountains. Along with significant snow, winds will be increasing into the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 35MPH by evening time Sunday. This will cause significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when there is a strong likelihood of significant but not severe winter weather. In this case the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for moderate amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Looks like another significant snowfall is going to occur across the entire region. I have issued a Winter Storm Warning for all of Vermont, for 6-12 inches for the Champlain Valley, Western Rutland County, and Bennington County, as well as the Connecticut river valley, and 12-18 inches for the rest of Vermont, and the Southeast slopes of the Southern Green Mountains. I have also issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of Northern New York for 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts along the Western Slopes of the Northern Adirondack mountains.
     Currently the storm system is over Central Michigan. This system will continue to move east-northeast a little bit more, before stalling out and redeveloping off the New Jersey Coast. From there the low pressure system will intensify and move northeast, and into Northern Maine by Monday afternoon. Snow totals above are for the main event. However it looks as if there could be anywhere from 3-6 additional inches from Monday morning into Monday night, due to an upslope flow. The Warning may have to be extended, if this continue to look favorable. That would also push totals into the 15-24 inch range for the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. Of even more concern is the potential for mesoscale banding across the Western slopes, and northeastern Vermont. When these mesoscale bands set up they tend to drop very heavy snow, and enhance snowfall totals significantly. Therefor I would not be surprised to see a few 2 foot amounts, especially across the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains and Northeastern Vermont.
     Winds should also increase, by Sunday Evening, and could result in gusts as high as 45MPH especially across the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains, and the higher elevations of Eastern Vermont. This would cause near blizzard conditions. Updated maps are below. Stay tuned for further updates...


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Another Winter Storm For Sunday into Early Monday

Local Update...
   Models Are Becoming Consistent On A Winter Storm For Sunday Into Early Monday; JRWeather Winter Storm Watch In Effect From 12AM Sunday Until 12AM Monday...

JRWeather WINTER STORM WATCH
     JRWeather continues a Winter Storm Watch For All Of Vermont, And Clinton, Essex, Southeastern St. Lawrence, and Southern Franklin Counties In Northern New York From 12AM Sunday Until 12AM Monday.

     A low pressure system that is expected to move through or very near the St. Lawrence Valley, will redevelop over Southern New England, then Track Northeast and into Maine by Monday. This will result in the potential of significant snow for the entire region.

     At this time it appears snow will develop as early as Saturday night, and continue into early Monday morning. Current indications suggest the potential exists for 9 or more inches of snow by Monday Morning. In addition to the potential of snow, winds will increase into the 10-20MPH range with gusts to 35MPH possible.

     If future model runs remain consistent then a Winter Storm Warning or Winter Weather Advisory may be issued later Today.

     A Winter storm watch is issued when there is a strong potential for severe winter weather, but not yet imminent. In this case the Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the potential of significant amounts of snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Warnings and Advisories for the upslope snow event have been cancelled as the moisture is diminishing. Next storm system look rather interesting at the least. A clipper system is expected to move towards the St. Lawrence river valley and then redevelop over or near Southern New England. The coastal system will then move northeast and up into Maine for Monday. The result may be for some heavy snow. The NAM model is now coming into agreement with the GFS. I just want to wait one or two more model runs before issuing any warning or advisories. I will say though the potential is very high for 9 or more inches of snow, especially from the Champlain Valley and into eastern Vermont. The western slopes could definitely pick up the highest amounts as winds turn to the northwest on the back of the system and enhance the snowfall significantly. Winds also look to be a concern as the pressure gradient tightens. Winds could gust up to 35MPH. That may be somewhat conservative. That's all I have for tonight. Make sure to stay tuned for further updates.


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No official alerts have been issued by the National Weather Service at this time.

Another Winter Storm Possible For The Region Sunday Into Monday; JRWeather Alerts In Effect

Local Update...
   More Snow Likely For Much Of The Region; JRWeather Winter Storm Watch In Effect From 12AM Sunday Until 12AM Monday...

JRWeather WINTER STORM WATCH
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Storm Watch For All Of Vermont, And All Of Northern New York From 12AM Sunday Until 12AM Monday.

     A low pressure system moving near the St. Lawrence Valley by Saturday is expected to redevelop over Southern New England, then Track Northeast and into Maine by Monday. This will result in the potential of significant snow for the entire region.

     Snow will develop late Saturday night, and continue into early Monday Morning. The snow could be heavy at times especially during the evening Sunday. Total snow accumulations by Monday Morning have the potential to exceed 9 inches across much of the region, especially the northern portions of Vermont, and Northeastern New York.

     There continues to remain some uncertainty as to where the heaviest snow will set up. So a Winter Storm Watch has been issued. If future model runs remain consistent then a Winter Storm Warning or Winter Weather Advisory may be issued later Tonight or Tomorrow.

     A Winter storm watch is issued when there is a strong potential for severe winter weather, but not yet imminent. In this case the Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the potential of significant amounts of snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Another significant storm system may effect the region, mainly Sunday into Monday. But snow may start as early as Saturday night. Models are having some difficulty in forecasting where the heaviest snow will be. The NAM is indicating the heaviest snow would be across Eastern, and Northeastern Vermont, while the GFS model is indicating the heaviest snow would be across much of Vermont, especially the Northern portions. I will have more on this potential storm later tonight.

VIEW PREVIOUS BLOG POST FOR UPDATES ON THE CURRENT WINTER STORM EFFECTING THE REGION.

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Upslope Snow Continues Across The Region; JRWeather Alerts Continue

Local Update...
   Snow, Occasionally Moderate To Heavy At Times Will Continue Into Saturday; JRWeather Winter Storm Warning & Winter Weather Advisory In Effect Until 3PM Saturday...

JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Continues The Winter Storm Warning for Lamoille, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, and Eastern Addison Counties In Vermont Until 3PM Saturday.

     Moderate to occasionally heavy upslope snow should continue, with only light to occasional moderate snow in the Valley locations. Total snow accumulations by Saturday afternoon will range from 8-12 inches with locally higher amounts near Jay peak. Snow will range widely in intensity overnight, and into early Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon any remaining snow showers should tapper off to flurries. Along with the snow, strong winds of 10-20MPH with gusts to 35MPH will occur through tonight. This will result in areas of blowing and drifting snow.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for heavy amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Travel will continue to be hazardous into tomorrow afternoon. Travel should become better by late Saturday, although roads will still be very slick, so use caution while driving.


JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory For Orleans, Washington, Bennington and Western Rutland Counties In Vermont and Southeastern St. Lawrence, Southern Franklin, and Western Clinton Counties In New York Until 3PM Saturday.

     Moderate upslope snow should continue, with only light to occasional moderate snow in the Valley locations. Total snow accumulations by Saturday afternoon will range from 4-8 inches with locally higher amounts. Snow will range widely in intensity overnight, and into early Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon any remaining snow showers should tapper off to flurries. Along with the snow, strong winds of 10-20MPH with gusts to 35MPH will occur through tonight. This will result in areas of blowing and drifting snow.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when there is a strong likelihood of significant but not severe winter weather. In this case the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for moderate amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     I am back home for a quick couple minutes, so I am able to get a full update out. Things continue to be on track, with the exception of having to downgrade a couple of the Warnings to Advisories for Washington, and Orleans Counties, as snow is not as widespread as first forecasted. They will still receive some significant snow from this upslope snow event. Warning areas will receive 8-12 inches with locally higher amounts, especially near Jay Peak, and Mt. Mansfield. Advisory areas will see 4-8 inches with locally higher amounts.
     Snow should come to an end by Saturday afternoon, with only some light flurries or snow showers across the highest of elevations. If you were wondering what an upslope snow event is. Its when a northwesterly flow, usually on the back side of an exiting storm system, allows the wind, and moisture to hit the mountains and then go up into the atmosphere. This causes lift, which allows clouds to form, and if enough moisture is present, snow can fall. Upslope snow events only happen in mountainous areas.


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Upslope Snow Event Underway; JRWeather Alerts In Effect

     Once again I apologize for the inconvenient set up. Although, I was able to get maps together, but I was unable to get bold headlines up, or the actual written alerts I issued.

     I have issued a Winter Storm Warning for much of the western slopes of the Northern, and Central Green Mountains in Vermont, for the potential of 8-12 inches of Snow by Saturday Evening. I have also issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Southern Green Mountains of Vermont, and the Western slopes of the Northern Adirondack mountains of New York, for the potential of 4-8 inches of snow by Saturday evening.

     Just to remind everyone. Winter Storm Warning Criteria for snow is 6 inches in 12 hours or 9 inches in 24 hours. This event will be 36 hours, so it was difficult to decide on what to do. I feel that a foot of snow within 12 hours is worthy of a Warning. Areas that are expected to receive 4-8 inches will be placed in an advisory. The reasoning once again, is due to this being such a prolonged event. The rest of the area should see anywhere from 2-4 inches of snow by Saturday Evening. The heaviest snow should fall Friday.


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More Snow On The Way; JRWeather Alerts In Effect

Local Update...
   A Significant And Prolonged Upslope Snow Event Possible Into Saturday; Non-Upslope Areas May Receive Some Significant Snowfall As Well; JRWeather Winter Storm Watch In Effect From 11PM Tonight Until 11PM Saturday Night...

JRWeather WINTER STORM WATCH
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Orleans, Lamoille, Washington, Bennington, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, Eastern Addison, Eastern Rutland, and Western Windham Counties in Vermont, and Southeaster St. Lawrence, Southern Franklin, Western Clinton, and Western Essex Counties in Northern New York From 11PM Tonight Until 11PM Saturday Night.

     An upper level low pressure system will move very slowly northeast into Canada, resulting in winds gradual changing to the Northwest. With the northwest wind, and moisture from the upper level low pressure system, a significant upslope snow event is likely to occur in the Northwest upslope regions from late tonight into late Saturday night. At this time though it is still not certain the exact direction of the winds, and how strong they will be, in order to produce this upslope snow event. So a Winter Storm Watch has been issued instead of a Warning.

     Any precipitation that ends today, or this evening, will start back up late tonight, or very early Friday morning. The snow will be occasionally heavy at times into Saturday. By Saturday night the snow should tapper off, as winds shift more to the North, and wind speeds lighten. Total snow accumulations look to range from 6-12 inches across much of the Western slopes of the Green Mountains, and the Western Slopes of the Northern Adirondack Mountains. A small area of 12-18 inches is possible along a line extending from Jay peak, to Hanksville, to near south Cambridge, to Mount Bolton, to Killington, to Haystack Mountain, and to Searsburg.

     A Winter storm watch is issued when there is a strong potential for severe winter weather, but not yet imminent. In this case the Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the potential of significant amounts of snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather SPECIAL WINTER WEATHER STATEMENT
     JRWeather has issued a Special Winter Weather Statement for Essex, Caledonia, Orange, Windsor, Western Franklin, Western Chittenden, Western Addison, and Western Rutland Counties in Vermont, and Northern Franklin County in New York Until 11PM Tonight.

     A low pressure system, that will bring moisture, and a northwest wind to produce and upslope snow event, may have some impact, on the Champlain Valley, Western Rutland County, The Eastern portions of Vermont, and Northern Franklin County in New York.

     Current indications are that some significant snow may also fall in portions of the above mentioned area. For the Champlain Valley, areas that are more elevated but not considered portions of the Western Slopes could witness some significant snowfall as well. Not enough to warrant a Winter Storm Watch, but enough to issue a Winter Weather Statement. Some of these areas include East Highgate, Sheldon, East Fairfield, Fairfield/ St. Albans Hill, Fairfax, Westford, Fays Corner, Hinesburgh, and Bristol. In Western Rutland County some areas include Brandon, Rutland, and Danby.

     For areas in eastern Vermont not included in the Winter Storm Watch. Some higher elevation areas, across this region could also see some significant accumulating snow, but not quite enough to warrant a Winter Storm Watch. Areas such as Greensboro, Hardwick, Royalton, Ludlow, Perkensville, and Saxtons River.

     For Northern Franklin County in New York, areas that border the Western Slopes of the Northern Adirondack mountains that are not under a Winter Storm Watch could also see some significant snow accumulation. A couple of these areas are Malone, and Chateaugay.

     All the above mentioned areas could see 3-7 inches of snow by Friday night. Snow should tapper off in these regions by Friday night, as the snow moves into only the true Western upslope regions, due to the fact moisture will be decreasing some. If conditions become more certain that a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for the above mentioned areas. Stay tuned!

     A Special Winter Weather Statement, is issued when significant but not severe winter weather could occur, but is not yet imminent. If conditions become more favorable then a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed.


DISCUSSION
     I have cancelled all the current alerts that were in effect until 9PM for the current storm. The National Weather Service continues there alerts for Northeastern Vermont until 1PM for the current storm.
     I have gone and issued a Winter Storm Watch, and a Special Winter Weather Statement for portions of the region for Tonight into Saturday. True Western Upslope regions could receive 6-12 inches with some of the highest elevations receiving 12-18 inches. The snow amounts stated in the Winter Storm Watch are preliminary. It should be noted that the potential exists for 9 or more inches of snow in the Watch area by Saturday night. The Special Winter Weather Statement has been issued to indicate that higher elevated areas of the Champlain Valley, and Western Rutland County could see 3-7 inches possible, as well as other higher elevation areas across Eastern Vermont, and Northern Franklin County New York, which are not included in a Winter Storm Watch. These areas may have to have a Winter Weather Advisory later tonight. I will await more information from Weather models before basing my decision. It should also be noted that areas within 6-10 miles of Lake Champlain will have significantly less snow.
     At this time, it is still uncertain as to how much snow will fall, as the movement of the system, strength, and direction of the winds, will be key as to how much snow falls, and where it will fall. The maps below indicate preliminary snow totals, these totals are subject to change. Stay tuned!


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February 18th-19th Winter Storm Update Update

     Sorry for no headline or maps like usual, I am not at my primary computer tonight. But I do want to send out another update.
     Snow is currently falling light to moderately in Swanton and Highgate, with around 1.5 inches of snow on the ground. Radar is indicating that widespread moderate to occasionally heavy snow is falling across Northeastern New York, and much of Northern and Central Vermont. Lighter snow, and another dry slot is moving in from the Southwest, and will be over the Champlain Valley, and Northern New York in the next couple hours. Then more showery type precipitation will occur towards the pre-dawn hours, and could mix with rain in the Champlain Valley.
     Snow totals continue to look good, with 3-6 inches still likely in the higher elevations with locally higher amounts in the upslope regions, and 1-3 inches likely in the Champlain Valley. There could be locally higher amounts in the more elevated portions of the Valley.
     Also to note, significant pressure falls are occurring near cape cod. This is indicative of the new low pressure system trying to form. It will likely form east of Boston. This will be watched closely, where if the low pressure system forms sooner, it could help bring colder air in sooner, and may result in slightly higher snowfall amounts. Stay tuned!!

Upslope Regions May See Snow Into Friday Night

Local Update...
   Second Snow Event Will Not Allow Northwest Upslope Regions To Take A Break...

Current Storm
     Just wanted to give a quick update, to the current storm, and a second event that will unfold on the heals of this current storm.
     First off, the current storm, everything is seeming on track. Temperatures have plummeted with strong evaporative cooling. Temperatures still remain just above freezing though in the lower elevations. A band of moderate to occasionaly heavy snow will push from Southwest to Northeast across the region, over the next several hours. This batch of precipitation will bring most of what the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys will see for snow.
     At this point it does appear we will get by with no Wind Advisories. Winds are falling short of criteria. The Criteria for a Wind Advisory is Sustained winds of 30-39MPH and/ or gusts 46-57MPH. Currently across much of the Champlain Valley sustained winds are in the 15-25MPH range with gusts ranging from 25-35.

Second Storm
     The second event, will still be somewhat linked to this event, as moisture from the same system will help produce some additional upslope snow. Areas such as Richford, Cambridge, Hanksville, Jericho, and Jay Peak could see an additional 3-6 inches of snow with this event. Which will occur Thursday Night into Friday Night. At this point no Winter Alerts will be issued for this potential upslope snow event, due to the current system. But stay tuned for further updates, and the potential for another Winter Weather Advisory. I do want to urge though, with this second event, the highest snow total will be confined to Northwest upslope areas of the Green and Adirondack Mountains, especially the closer you get to the international border.

No maps will be issued in this post. View previous post for details on the current winter storm.

February 18th & 19th Winter Storm Update

Local Update...
   Mixed Precipitation Over Spreading Northern New York At This Time; Elevations Above 900 Feet Should Remain Nearly All Snow; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect For Portons Of The Region...

JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory For Orleans, Essex, Lamoille, Caledonia, Washington, Orange, Windsor, Windham, Bennington, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, Eastern Addison, and Eastern Rutland Counties In Vermont and Southeastern St. Lawrence, Southern Franklin, Western New York, and Western Essex Counties In New York Until 9PM Thursday.

     Snow should develop across the entire region by early this evening, and vary widely in intensity through Thursday Evening. The heaviest snow from this system will fall, towards the nighttime tonight. Total snow accumulations by Thursday evening will range from 3-6 inches across the entire area, with higher amounts likely in the upslope regions of the Green Mountain in Vermont, and the Northern and Central Adirondack Mountains in New York. Some sleet, and rain may mix in Wednesday evening, and early Thursday especially across Southern Vermont, and elevations below 900 feet.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when there is a strong likelihood of significant but not severe winter weather. In this case the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for light to moderate amounts of snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Very quick discussion as I need to get back to work. I have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for the Champlain, and St. Lawrence Valleys, as sun earlier this morning allowed temperatures to sky rocket some 10+ degrees in 1 hour. Now that the clouds have moved in temperatures will hold near steady or slowly rise with the Southerly Winds. As of now the winds are well below Advisory criteria, but the wind threat will continue to be monitored. Winds may increase significantly over the next hour or two, as evaporative cooling tries to occur, which will help mix down some strong winds as the precipitation moistens the very dry atmosphere. Winds will likely be strongest in the Champlain Valley. Updated maps below...


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February 18th-19th Winter Storm Update

Local Update...
   Accumulating Snow Likely For The Entire Area Wednesday Into Thursday Night; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect For The Entire Region...

JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory For All Of Vermont, and All Of Northern New York From 2PM Wednesday Until 9PM Thursday.

     A low pressure system currently effecting the Rockies will move east and into the center of the country. From there it will moves northeast, and into the Great Lakes region, where it will then move east, just north of the US/ Canadian border of New York, this low pressure system will transfer its energy to a new low pressure center off the New England Coast near Boston. The new low pressure center will then move North-Northeast, and up into Eastern Maine by Friday.

     Snow should develop Wednesday afternoon, and vary widely in intensity through Thursday Evening. The heaviest snow from this system will fall, towards the evening hours, Wednesday. Total snow accumulations by Thursday evening will range from 3-6 inches across the entire area, with higher amounts likely in the upslope regions of the Green Mountain in Vermont, and the Northern and Central Adirondack Mountains in New York. The lowest totals will be found in the Champlain Valley. Some sleet, and rain may mix in Wednesday evening, and early Thursday, especially in the Champlain Valley, where strong southerly winds will help bring temperatures above freezing.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when there is a strong likelihood of significant but not severe winter weather. In this case the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for light to moderate amounts of snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     A fairly short update on this Winter Storm set to effect the region Wednesday to Thursday Night. I have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire area, for the potential of 3-6 inches of snow. Some of the upslope regions such as North Hudson, Keene Valley, Newcomb, and Jay New York, and Ludlow, Rochester, Northfield, and Wheelock Vermont could definitely pick up isolated amounts of 8-10 inches. But its not widespread enough to warrant a Winter Storm Warning, not to mention this event is going to last 24 hours or so, and Warning Criteria for Snowfall is 6 inches or more in 12 hours or 9 inches or more in 24 hours. So technically anyone with 9+ inches of snow by the time the storm ends will have had Warning Criteria snowfall. But this storm will not have enough moisture to produce any widespread amounts of 9+ inches, so once again, no need for a Winter Storm Warning.
     It was also difficult for me to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the Champlain Valley, as the strong southerly winds will help dry the valley out, as well as warm it up. So precipitation will change from Snow to rain. I feel though enough places in the Valley will receive 4 inches or so to Warrant an Advisory. Another reason for this being difficult, is once again this storm is one that's of long duration. I feel though that the 4 inches of snow will fall prior to the change over, which would confirm the reasoning for an Advisory in the Valley. In case you were wondering a Winter Weather Advisory for snow accumulations is issued when 4 inches of snow is likely in a 12 hour period. If the 4 inches falls prior to the Change over then this would be within 12 hours. The rest of the precipitation in the Valley will either be rain, or not mount to much, as the higher elevations however receive continued snow, throughout the entire event of approx. 24 hours.

     Also in the Champlain Valley there is a concern of strong southerly winds, as the strong southerly flow sets up for Wednesday and Wednesday Evening. As we know southerly winds like to funnel up the Champlain Valley making them stronger. We could be looking at gusts to 45MPH. Wind Advisory criteria gusts are 46-57MPH. So it will be close. A Wind Advisory may be needed at some point tomorrow. Stay tuned...


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Accumulating Snow For Much of The Region Wednesday To Thursday Night

Local Update...
   More Snow & Wintry Mix For The Region Wednesday Into Thursday Night; JRWeather Winter Storm Watch In Effect From 2PM Wednesday Until 11PM Thursday For Portions Of The Region...

JRWeather WINTER STORM WATCH
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Orleans, Essex, Lamoille, Washington, Orange, Caledonia, Windsor, Bennington, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, Eastern Addison, Eastern Rutland, and Western Windham Counties in Vermont, and Clinton, and Essex Counties in Northern New York From 2PM Wednesday Until 11PM Thursday.

     A low pressure system currently effecting the Rockies will move east and into the center of the country. From there it will moves northeast, and into the Great Lakes region, where it will then move east, just north of the US/ Canadian border of New York, and New England. The low pressure system will slow significantly near our area, and slowly dry out and weaken as it moves further northeast. The will result in a wintry mix for the region, with significant snow accumulations possible from Wednesday into Thursday Night.

     Light snow should develop Wednesday afternoon, and become heavy at times, especially towards the evening hours. A Easterly to Southeasterly wind will result in the heaviest snow falling across the Eastern/ Southeastern Slopes of the Northern Adirondack Mountains, and across the Southeastern Slopes of the Green Mountains. When the winds shift back to the northwest on Thursday the heaviest snow will then fall across the Northwestern Slopes of the Green Mountains. Snow will range widely in intensity from Wednesday Evening into Thursday evening. Total snow accumulations by Thursday evening will range from 6-12 inches across the Eastern two thirds of Vermont, and the Eastern/ Southeastern Slopes of the Adirondack Mountains, in New York. Sleet, and some rain may mix in for brief time Wednesday and Wednesday evening.

     A Winter storm watch is issued when there is a strong potential for severe winter weather, but not yet imminent. In this case the Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the potential of significant amounts of snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Another somewhat messy storm will be moving into the region Wednesday. At this point it looks like it will be a mainly snow event, with the highest totals at first in the Southeastern/ Eastern Upslope areas, of both New York, and Vermont then eventually shifting to the Northwestern Slopes. Low pressure will move north of the area, then redevelop near Boston, and move north into Maine. Due to this being a double barrel low pressure system, significant wrap around moisture from the coastal low will unlikely have a huge impact on our area, although its track if it were a single low system, would be one that would bring very significant snowfall to the region.
     Total snow accumulations will be 6-12 inches in the upslope regions, with 3-6 inches across the Valley locations, and much of Northern New York. Conditions are being watched for the possibility of some significant Champlain Valley convergence/ northwest upslope flow across the Northern Champlain Valley/ Northern Green Mountains. If this were to set up, it could result in several extra inches of snow. For the Northern Champlain Valley, and Northern Green mountains.
     Winds may also be a concern Wednesday as a southerly flow will help funnel winds through the Champlain Valley. Stay tuned... Maps are below.


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Minor Flooding Ongoing Across Franklin County Vermont; Ice Jam Threat Remains High For Portions Of New York, and Vermont; JRWeather Alerts In Effect

Local Update...
   JRWeather Flood Warning In Effect Until 2PM Friday Afternoon; JRWeather Flood Watch In Effect Until 12PM Friday Afternoon...

JRWeather FLOOD WARNING
     JRWeather Has Issued A Flood Warning For Franklin County in Vermont Until 2PM Friday.

     Widespread small stream flooding, and brook flooding occurring across Franklin County Vermont.

     Reports from across Franklin County indicate that many small creeks, streams, brooks, and small rivers are running high or are out of their banks. Of most concern The Black Creek, and its tributaries in Fairfield have risen out of their banks, and is producing significant field flooding. Flood waters are approaching the Ryan Road, just off of Route 36. There is a strong likely hood the Ryan road will be flooded tonight, and into early tomorrow morning.

     The Missisquoi River is also likely to Flood tonight, in East Highgate along Route 78, and in the Berkshire, Enosburgh area along Route 105. At 11:30PM reports indicate water is only a foot from going over the road in East Highgate, and ice is in the process of jamming up.

     At this point all flooding appears to remain minor.

     A Flood Warning is issued when Flooding is occurring or imminent. If you live in a flood proned area, and that area is experiencing high water, move to higher ground immediately. Stay tuned for further updates!



JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
     JRWeather Continues A Flood Watch for Franklin, Orleans, and Lamoille Counties in Vermont, and Eastern Clinton County In New York Until 12PM Friday.

     Significant Rainfall, and Snowmelt, will result in some continued runoff. Rapid rises on rivers continue at this hour, and Ice Jams are forming.

     Significant runoff from snowmelt, and rainfall has resulted in rapid rises on area rivers. The highest concern remains mainly in Northwestern Vermont, and Northeastern New York. Where widespread rainfall of one half to one inch fell, this rain has also combined with significant snow melt, to produce substantial runoff. Temperatures have dropped below freezing, this will cause runoff to slow, and eventually stop.

     The rivers that remain at a very high risk of Ice Jam flooding right now are the Missisquoi River in Orleans, and Franklin Counties. The Lamoille River in Lamoille, and Franklin Counties, and The Great Chazy river in Clinton County New York. Very sharp rises have been noted on these rivers, and ice has already started to break up and in some cases start to jam.

     With temperatures remaining below freezing all night, and all day Friday the flood threat will slowly come to an end. A Flood watch is issued when there is the potential for flooding to occur, but not imminent. In this case the potential for ice jam flooding exists. If you live in an area prone to Ice Jam flooding then monitor the waterway closely. At any sign of flooding move immediately to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Very short discussion because I need to get to bed... Ice Jam Flood Threat remains high across Franklin, Orleans, and Lamoille Counties in Vermont, and Clinton County in New York. The JRWeather Flood Watch remains in effect for those areas. The National Weather Service has also continued a Flood Watch for Franklin County Vermont, and Eastern Clinton Counties Only. Also I have issued a flood warning based off of some information, and observations across the area. Significant field flooding is ongoing across much of Franklin County, with some roads likely to become effected. Things should quiet down though by later tomorrow afternoon, due to the fact temperatures are below freezing, and well remain like the throughout the day Friday. This will help end runoff, and significant rises on area waterways. Stay tuned for further updates.


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Ice Jam Flood Threat Continues; JRWeather Flood Watch In Effect

Local Update...
   Moderate To Heavy Rain Moving Into Northern New York; JRWeather Flood Watch Remains In Effect Until 8PM Thursday...

JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
     JRWeather Continues A Flood Watch for all of Northern New York, and All of Vermont except Grand Isle County From Until 8PM Thursday.

     Unseasonably warm temperatures, and rain will continue, leading to the potential of Ice Jam Flooding from this evening into Thursday evening.

     Temperatures reached the low 50'sF in a few places today, with widespread mid to upper 40's across the region. Thursday temperatures are going to be in the mid 40'sF and slowly fall throughout the day. These above freezing temperatures and resultant snow melt combined with rainfall amounts of a half to three quarters of an inch into Thursday afternoon, will result in rapid rises on area rivers into Thursday. River ice is quite thick at this time, so the threat for ice jam flooding is relatively high, as the river levels rise.

     Of most concern is where any ice jams formed earlier this winter, and then froze in place. These areas will be the largest focus for ice jam flooding. The highest risk areas for ice jam flooding at this time are the Missisquoi River near East Highgate, Berkshire, Enosburgh, and Swanton, The Great Chazy River near Perry Mills, The East Branch of the Ausable River near Ausable Forks, The Winooski River near Montpelier, and The Lamoille River near Johnson, and Cambridge. These areas are where previous ice jams had formed and froze in place earlier this winter.

     Temperatures should fall below freezing Thursday evening, reducing runoff and ending and additional ice jam threat. A Flood watch is issued when there is the potential for flooding to occur, but not imminent. In this case the potential for ice jam flooding exists. If you live in an area prone to Ice Jam flooding then monitor the nearby waterway closely. At any sign of flooding move immediately to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     As of this time area rivers are behaving, but how well they will continue to behave is in question. Area rivers are just starting to show signs of rising. What happens through the overnight hours will be key as to how much ice jamming will occur. Rivers will need to rise atleast a couple more feet before the ice will severely break up.
     Rain moving into the region overnight will help aid in runoff and help raise river levels. At this point the heaviest rain is expected to be across Northern New York, where isolated areas of up to 1 inch of rain could fall. Widespread amounts though will be around a half to three quarters of an inch, and in Vermont amounts will range from a quarter to half inch. These amounts of rain in a 5-8 hour period of time, combined with snow melt will result in significant river rises, causing ice to break and jam up.
     The most significant threat areas are the East Branch of the Ausable River near Ausable Forks, and The Great Chazy River near Perry Mills, as these two rivers are expected to crest near action stage. This is not counting any ice jam potential at all. If the river rose to near action stage and jammed some significant flooding could occur. Other areas of special concern are the Missisquoi River near Berkshire, Enosburgh, and Highgate, The Otter Creek near Rutland, The Winooski River near Montpelier, The Lamoille River near Johnson, and Cambridge, and the Saranac River near Plattsburgh. These rivers are forecasted to have sharp rises but not near action stage like The Great Chazy, or The East Branch of the Ausable. Eitherway, the rivers where sharp rises occur will be the ones to Jam up.
     Other areas at a more moderate risk, rather then a high risk, are the Mississquoi River near North Troy, and Swanton, Lamoille River near Georgia, The Winooski River near Essex, The Otter Creek near Middlebury, and the Mad River in Moretown.
     If you live near area rivers, creeks, or streams, that are known to be vulnerable to ice jam flooding, then pay close attention to them. At the first sign of flooding move to higher ground.
     I will be unable to put out frequent Flood Warnings of my own, if they are needed, due to the fact I have to work, so stay tuned to the National Weather Service for official alerts, as well as your local media outlets.

Updated maps below...


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