Warm Temperatures and Rain Will Likely Lead To The Formation Of Ice Jams Wednesday Into Thursday; JRWeather Flood Watch In Effect From 12PM Wednesday Until 8PM Thursday...
JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
JRWeather Has Issued A Flood Watch for all of Northern New York, and All of Vermont except Grand Isle County From 12PM Wednesday Until 8PM Thursday.
Unseasonably warm temperatures, and rain will lead to the potential of Ice Jam Flooding Wednesday Afternoon, into Thursday Evening.
Wednesday, temperatures are expected to hit the 50F mark in some of the larger valley locations, such as the Champlain, St. Lawrence, and Connecticut Valleys, with low to mid 40'sF elsewhere. These temperatures combined with rainfall amounts of a half to three quarters of an inch, will result in rapid rises on area rivers. River ice is quite thick at this time, so the threat for ice jam flooding exists, as river levels rise. Of most concern is where any ice jams formed earlier this winter, and then froze in place. These areas will be the largest focus for any additional ice jam flooding. The highest risk areas for ice jam flooding are the Missisquoi River near East Highgate, Berkshire, Enosburgh, and Swanton, The Great Chazy River near Perry Mills, The East Branch of the Ausable River near Ausable Forks, The Winooski River near near Montpelier, and The Lamoille River near Johnson, and Cambridge. These areas are were previous ice jams had formed and froze in place earlier this winter.
Temperatures should fall below freezing Thursday evening, reducing runoff and ending and additional ice jam threat. A Flood watch is issued when there is the potential for flooding to occur, but not imminent. In this case the potential for ice jam flooding exists. Stay tuned for further updates.
DISCUSSION
An active couple weeks of weather coming up. The start of it all will be Tomorrow into Thursday when warmer temperatures, and rain, which will likely lead to the formation of ice jams, which will likely lead to some minor flooding. Warm temperatures will be in place for Wednesday and Wednesday night, with rain starting Wednesday night, and lasting into the late afternoon Thursday. Rainfall totals should be in the half to three quarter inch range. This will lead to additional runoff and aid the snow in melting a bit faster as well. At this point the greatest threat will be for the areas that witnessed ice jams earlier this winter. Temperatures will cool down enough late Thursday evening to stop runoff, and end the threat for any additional Ice Jams.
As time moves on there will be the threat of some more storms in the next couple weeks. At this point it is questionable as to whether or not the will effect our region or stay south. But as we know this time of year, and heading into March can tend to bring some impressive storms. I will keep you updated, on future storm systems as details become available. Stay tuned!
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