Saturday, February 21, 2009

Significant Snowstorm For The Region Sunday Into Monday; JRWeather Alerts In Effect

Local Update...
   Significant Snowfall On The Way; JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect From 6AM Sunday Until 6AM Monday; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect From 11PM Tonight Until 11PM Sunday Night...

JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Has Issued A Winter Storm Warning for All Of Vermont From 6AM Sunday Until 6AM Monday.

     A low pressure system expected to move near the St. Lawrence Valley will redevelop off the New Jersey coast, and move Northeast, up into Northern Maine by Monday afternoon. This will result in significant snowfall for the region.

     Snow will begin by 10AM across the entire region, and become heavy at times, especially into the late afternoon and evening hours. Total snowfall accumulations will range from 6-12 inches in the Western third of Vermont, and 12-18 inches across the Eastern two thirds of Vermont. Isolated higher amounts are possible near Jay Peak, and Smugglers Notch, as well as places in the Northeast Kingdom. Along with significant snow, winds will be increasing into the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 35MPH by late evening. Isolated gusts of up to 45MPH are possible along the Western slopes of the Green Mountains, and the higher elevations of eastern Vermont. This will cause significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for heavy amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Travel will become hazardous Sunday into Monday Morning. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory For All Of Northern New York From 11PM Tonight Until 11PM Sunday.

     A low pressure system expected to move near the St. Lawrence Valley will redevelop off the New Jersey coast, and move Northeast, up into Northern Maine by Monday afternoon. This will result in significant snowfall for the region.

     Snow will begin by 10PM across much of New York, and may become occasionally heavy at times. Total snowfall accumulations by Sunday night, will range from 3-6 inches with locally higher amounts. Especially in the Western slopes of the Northern Adirondack mountains. Along with significant snow, winds will be increasing into the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 35MPH by evening time Sunday. This will cause significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when there is a strong likelihood of significant but not severe winter weather. In this case the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for moderate amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Looks like another significant snowfall is going to occur across the entire region. I have issued a Winter Storm Warning for all of Vermont, for 6-12 inches for the Champlain Valley, Western Rutland County, and Bennington County, as well as the Connecticut river valley, and 12-18 inches for the rest of Vermont, and the Southeast slopes of the Southern Green Mountains. I have also issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of Northern New York for 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts along the Western Slopes of the Northern Adirondack mountains.
     Currently the storm system is over Central Michigan. This system will continue to move east-northeast a little bit more, before stalling out and redeveloping off the New Jersey Coast. From there the low pressure system will intensify and move northeast, and into Northern Maine by Monday afternoon. Snow totals above are for the main event. However it looks as if there could be anywhere from 3-6 additional inches from Monday morning into Monday night, due to an upslope flow. The Warning may have to be extended, if this continue to look favorable. That would also push totals into the 15-24 inch range for the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. Of even more concern is the potential for mesoscale banding across the Western slopes, and northeastern Vermont. When these mesoscale bands set up they tend to drop very heavy snow, and enhance snowfall totals significantly. Therefor I would not be surprised to see a few 2 foot amounts, especially across the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains and Northeastern Vermont.
     Winds should also increase, by Sunday Evening, and could result in gusts as high as 45MPH especially across the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains, and the higher elevations of Eastern Vermont. This would cause near blizzard conditions. Updated maps are below. Stay tuned for further updates...


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