Snowstorm Update

Local Update...
   Snow Continues Across The Region; JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect Until 8PM Monday Night; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect Until 7AM Monday Morning...

JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Continues A Winter Storm Warning for Orleans, Essex, Lamoille, Caledonia, Washington, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, Windham, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, and Eastern Addison Counties In Vermont Until 8PM Monday.

     Low pressure has formed near long Island, and will move Northeast, and up into New Brunswick, by Monday Afternoon. This will result in continued snow across the region.

     Snow will continue occasionally heavy at times this evening, into tonight. The snow will tapper off for much of the Warning area by 7AM tomorrow morning, however snow will continue into the evening hours Monday for the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Total snow accumulations by tomorrow morning will range from 8-12 inches across Southern Vermont, with 12-18 inches across North-Central, Northeast, and portions of Central Vermont. The Western slopes of the green mountains could see locally higher amounts by Monday evening. Along with significant snow, winds will be increasing into the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 35MPH by early Monday morning. This will cause significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for heavy amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Travel will become hazardous Sunday into Monday Morning. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory For Grand Isle, Western Franklin, Western Chittenden, and Western Addison Counties in Vermont, and Clinton, Essex, Franklin, and Southeastern St. Lawrence Counties in Northern New York Until 7AM Monday.

     Low pressure has formed near long Island, and will move Northeast, and up into New Brunswick, by Monday Afternoon. This will result in continued snow across the region.

     Snow will continue moderate at times this evening, into tonight. The snow will tapper off for much of the Advisory area by 7AM tomorrow morning with the exception of Northern New York, where snow should end by 11PM tonight. Total snow accumulations by tomorrow morning will range from 4-8 inches across Northern New York, and the Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York. Along with significant snow, winds will be increasing into the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 30MPH by early Monday morning. This will cause significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when there is a strong likelihood of significant but not severe winter weather. In this case the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for moderate amounts of snow, and blowing snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     The Champlain Valley looks to miss out on this storm. I have had to cut the Warning for the Champlain Valley due to low snow ratios, and not as much precipitation as initial thought. The Warnings for the Valley had to be dropped to Advisories because this is a long duration event 24 hours or so, and Warning Criteria is 6+ inches within 12 hours or 9+ inches within 24 hours. I don't see Widespread 9 inch amounts falling in the Champlain Valley. If the temperatures were colder then the possibility would be there. But the Advisory will do just fine for the expected 4-8 inches of snow within 24 hours. There is actually something kind of interesting going on. A very small pocket of significantly Warmer air has formed over the extreme Northern Champlain Valley, allowing snow ratios to actually drop to 8:1 - 10:1. Several places which have witnessed these warmer temperatures are Swanton Village VT, with a high of 41F, Grand Isle VT, with a high of 42F, and Rouses Point NY, with a high of 40F. These high temperatures occurred between 1:30PM and 2:30PM. Since then the temperatures have dropped down closer to freezing, with the exception of Swanton Village, and Grand Isle. Much of the rest of the region however, remains at or below freezing. So the warmer areas in the Valley will likely receive the lower end amounts of the Advisory. Although when winds turn to the North, conditions will have to be monitored for Champlain Valley convergence, which could make up for some of the lower snow totals.
     For the rest of the region, Northern, and Western St. Lawrence County is out of the Advisory as snow has pretty much come to an end, and additional snowfall will be in the 1-2 inch range at best. For the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains and east, heavy snow totals are still expected, with 12-18 inches for the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains, and Northeastern Vermont, with 8-12 inches elsewhere in Vermont, within the Warning. Isolated totals of 24 inches of snow could fall in places such as Jay Peak, Stowe, and Killington, as the storm turns into an upslope event by Monday. Stay tuned for further updates. Updated maps are below...


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