February 18th-19th Winter Storm Update

Local Update...
   Accumulating Snow Likely For The Entire Area Wednesday Into Thursday Night; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect For The Entire Region...

JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory For All Of Vermont, and All Of Northern New York From 2PM Wednesday Until 9PM Thursday.

     A low pressure system currently effecting the Rockies will move east and into the center of the country. From there it will moves northeast, and into the Great Lakes region, where it will then move east, just north of the US/ Canadian border of New York, this low pressure system will transfer its energy to a new low pressure center off the New England Coast near Boston. The new low pressure center will then move North-Northeast, and up into Eastern Maine by Friday.

     Snow should develop Wednesday afternoon, and vary widely in intensity through Thursday Evening. The heaviest snow from this system will fall, towards the evening hours, Wednesday. Total snow accumulations by Thursday evening will range from 3-6 inches across the entire area, with higher amounts likely in the upslope regions of the Green Mountain in Vermont, and the Northern and Central Adirondack Mountains in New York. The lowest totals will be found in the Champlain Valley. Some sleet, and rain may mix in Wednesday evening, and early Thursday, especially in the Champlain Valley, where strong southerly winds will help bring temperatures above freezing.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when there is a strong likelihood of significant but not severe winter weather. In this case the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for light to moderate amounts of snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     A fairly short update on this Winter Storm set to effect the region Wednesday to Thursday Night. I have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire area, for the potential of 3-6 inches of snow. Some of the upslope regions such as North Hudson, Keene Valley, Newcomb, and Jay New York, and Ludlow, Rochester, Northfield, and Wheelock Vermont could definitely pick up isolated amounts of 8-10 inches. But its not widespread enough to warrant a Winter Storm Warning, not to mention this event is going to last 24 hours or so, and Warning Criteria for Snowfall is 6 inches or more in 12 hours or 9 inches or more in 24 hours. So technically anyone with 9+ inches of snow by the time the storm ends will have had Warning Criteria snowfall. But this storm will not have enough moisture to produce any widespread amounts of 9+ inches, so once again, no need for a Winter Storm Warning.
     It was also difficult for me to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the Champlain Valley, as the strong southerly winds will help dry the valley out, as well as warm it up. So precipitation will change from Snow to rain. I feel though enough places in the Valley will receive 4 inches or so to Warrant an Advisory. Another reason for this being difficult, is once again this storm is one that's of long duration. I feel though that the 4 inches of snow will fall prior to the change over, which would confirm the reasoning for an Advisory in the Valley. In case you were wondering a Winter Weather Advisory for snow accumulations is issued when 4 inches of snow is likely in a 12 hour period. If the 4 inches falls prior to the Change over then this would be within 12 hours. The rest of the precipitation in the Valley will either be rain, or not mount to much, as the higher elevations however receive continued snow, throughout the entire event of approx. 24 hours.

     Also in the Champlain Valley there is a concern of strong southerly winds, as the strong southerly flow sets up for Wednesday and Wednesday Evening. As we know southerly winds like to funnel up the Champlain Valley making them stronger. We could be looking at gusts to 45MPH. Wind Advisory criteria gusts are 46-57MPH. So it will be close. A Wind Advisory may be needed at some point tomorrow. Stay tuned...


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