Severe Thunderstorms Possible Across Northern New York, and Northern Vermont

     Currently a Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Southwestern St. Lawrence County in Northern New York. Trained spotters indicated hail from Nickel to Quarter Size along with damaging winds. An area of thunderstorms extend from Southwestern St. Lawerence County Northeast into Canada and then Thunderstorms run east along the border to the North of Franklin County Vermont. This storms will have the potential for moving across the Northern Counties in New York, and the Northern Counties in Vermont. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible as suprisngly elevated instability exsits across Northern New York, and Vermont. Stay tunned for further updates. Below is a map of the Thunderstorm potential over the next few hours...

UPDATE: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Cancelled For Much of New Hampshire

Update...
     Seconds after my last update they cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all but Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties in New Hampshire. Flood Advisories are in effect for Southeastern portions of New Hampshire, for minor low lying field flooding, and significant ponding of water on area roads. Stay tuned for any further updates.

UPDATE: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Cancelled For Vermont

Update...
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled for Vermont, but remains in effect for the entire State of New Hampshire. Although the Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in Effect for the Entire State I feel the Severe Threat only remains for Southeastern New Hampshire. No thunderstorm initiation has been seen in Northern or Central New Hampshire at all today, and from Radar and Satellite trends this is not likely to occur. There was some additional minor flooding across Southern Vermont earlier this afternoon, but no Flash Flooding occurred. Below is an updated Thunderstorm Potential map...

Severe Thunderstorms Possible Across Vermont, and New Hampshire

     The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Central and Southern Vermont as well as all of New Hampshire. A destabilizing atmosphere across these areas with a cold front moving across the region will fire up some thunderstorms across the region, some of which will be severe. The greatest threat appears likely across Central and Southern Vermont, as well as much of New Hampshire. Any of the Severe thunderstorms are capable of producing hail up to 2 inches in diameter, and damaging wind gust of 70MPH or greater. Currently no Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued for Vermont or New Hampshire, but conditions are favorable of the development of them, hence the Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. Along with the severe aspect of the storms very heavy rains will fall in these storms, this could lead to localized flooding problems, and perhaps some isolated flash flooding. Stay tuned for any further updates. Below are 2 maps first one being the severe thunderstorm outlook map that I have made, and the second map being current National Weather Service alerts...

UPDATE: Flash Flood Warnings Continue; Flooding Concerns Developing Further North

Update...

     Flash Flood Warnings continue across Bennington, and Windham Counties. Now it looks like some flooding problems may occur further north across North-Central Vermont. Flash Flood guidance indicates that 1.1 inches of rain in 1 hour is needed to cause Flash Flooding and only 1.2 - 1.5 inches of rain in 3 hours is needed to cause Flash Flooding, this being across Orleans, Lamoille, Eastern Franklin, and Eastern Chittenden Counties. Now it did not look like storms were going to do much across far Northern Vermont, but over the last several minutes things have been changing with storms firing up rapidly across Northern Vermont. These showers and storms form a line from the Canadian border all the way down to Rutalnd county Vermont. Currently the strongest and heaviest showers and storms are across Chittenden, and Addison Counties headed east into Lamoille, and Washington Counties. These storms will drop anywhere from a half inch to as much as one inch in a short period of time. Now this will likely not cause significant flash flooding but will likely lead to minor flooding of low lying areas and small creeks and streams, along with significant ponding of water on roadways. These conditions are most likely to occur across Addison, Eastern Chittenden, and Lamoille Counties, along with very isolated areas across Eastern Franklin, and Western Orleans Counties. These storms will have to be watched for further intensification as they continue to move east into the mountains. Stay tuned for further updates.

Flash Flood Warnings Issued For Southern Vermont

     An unexpectedly busy day for several National Weather Service Offices today, and it continues into this morning. Earlier last evening (7/26) across Northern and Central Vermont a line of Strong to Severe Thunderstorms prompted the issuance of several severe thunderstorm warnings with several reports of tree damage.
     Right now across Southern Vermont, and the Capital District of New York, North to Saratoga County, New York; Strong to severe thunderstorms have prompted the issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, and Flash Flood Warnings. These areas have already seen too much rain and were one of the hardest hit areas with heavy rain last Wednesday - Friday. Rainfall amounts across that region ranged from 3 - 5 inches from that event and now tonight doppler radar is indicating heavy rain with rainfall rates of 2+ inches hanging over that area. Reports from a spotter in Saratoga Springs, New York indicated 1.45 inches of rain fell in one hour, and since earlier last evening a total of 3.51 inches fell, that being in under 6 hours and most falling over the last hour and a half. Across Bennington, and Windham Counties in extreme Southern Vermont, doppler radar indicated a widespread area of 2+ inches per hour heavy rain. Totals across southern Vermont as of right now are anywhere from 1.5 inches to as much as 4 inches of rain. Another 1 - 3 inches of rain is expected over the next two hours with another line of rapidly developing thunderstorms. Isolated max rainfall totals could reach as high as 7 inches across Bennington, and Windham Counties.
     Further North in Vermont some thunderstorms are expected with heavy rain, but no more than a max of 1.5 inches is expected. Across Rutland and Windsor counties though an isolated 2 inch amount is possible. Stay tunned for further updates.

Final Update

Last Update...
     Skies are mostly sunny, no rain in sight, and rivers have crested and are falling. The Flood Warning for the Missisquoi River in North Troy, and the Lamoille River in Johnson have been cancelled.
     For the rest of today, mostly sunny skies will continue with an isolated shower possible along the canadian border. Temps will remain in the mid to upper 70's area wide. Enjoy the day!!!

UPDATE: Flooding Continues Across North-Central Vermont

Update...
     Good morning, things are looking much better then yesterday, but unfortunately flooding continues. Runoff from last nights thunderstorms into smaller creeks and streams should be flowing into the large stem rivers by now. So area river gauges may see an additional minor spike in water levels.
     Right now flood warnings are in effect for Orleans, and Lamoille Counties. This is for the Lamoille, and Missisquoi Rivers. Currently minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast to continue for the next several hours. The Passumpsic river in Caledonia County is right around bankfull so some minor low lying field flooding is likely alongside the river.
     One good things to bring to everyones attention today is the fact that it is going to be a beautiful day. Mostly sunny skies with high in the mid 70's. Check back occasionaly for any further updates. At this point there will likely be only one last update later today.

UPDATE: Heavy Rain Slowly Diminishing; River Flood Warnings Now In Effect; More Rain To The West?

Update...
     The line of thunderstorms is now slightly weakening. Rainfall rates are still 1 inch per hour. River flood warnings are in effect for the Lamoille River, and Missisquoi River. As well as areal flood warnings, which are the warnings talked about in the previous posts. Flooding is occurring from the rain earlier today. Once this evenings rainfall totals catch up there could be isolated areas of Major flooding. Widespread moderate flooding is forecast across Orleans, Lamoille, and Washington Counties. Minor Flooding is expected for much of North-Central, Northeast, and Eastern Vermont. Isolated minor field flooding is expected in extreme Northwestern Vermont, and No flooding is expected across Northern New York, where less than one inch of rain has fallen for this entire event.
     Radar trends to indicate another area of light to moderate with occasional heavy rain moving east-northeast from Northwestern New York. Rainfall rates are up to 1 inch with this activity. This area of ran though is more showery in nature and is showing signs of diminishing. If it holds together into Vermont, with a little extra lift from the green mountains it could ring out another half to perhaps one inch of rain across North-Central, and Northeast Vermont.
     I would love to be able to stay up and watch this area of rain, but I am tired, and have to get up early tomorrow. So now you must visit your local weather and media outlets for further updates. Check in tomorrow morning for the possibility of further updates.

UPDATE: Heavy Rains Holding Strong; Flood Advisories Dropped

Update...
     Flood Advisories for the Champlain Valley and Western Rutland County have expired. Flood Warnings remain in effect, and the Flood Warning for Eastern Franklin, Western Orleans, Lamoille, and Washington Counties has been extended until 5:15AM. The line of thunderstorms producing heavy rain continues moving east. Rainfall rates continue to be in high, they have actually increased some and are now nearly 2 inches per hour. I am very surprised they have not upgraded the Flood Warnings to Flash Flood Warnings, especially across Lamoille, and Orleans Counties. Flash Flood Guidance indicates that only 1.2 inches in 1 hour is needed to produce flash flooding. This amount of rain is likely to occur in around or less than an hour. They probably feel a flood warning will work to cover it, and no need to step it up to a Flash Flood Warning. Either way flooding to continue and worsen overnight across North-Central, Northeast, and Eastern Vermont. Stay tuned for further updates.

     An updated map of Current National Weather Service Alerts has been issued to reflect the expiration of the Flood Advisories.

UPDATE: Heavy Rains Continue; Rivers Beginning To Spill Out Of There Banks

Update...
     A line of Strong Thunderstorms with very heavy rain continue moving east. There speed has slowed some which is not helping matters at all. Rainfall rates continue to be up to 1.5 inches per hour. A look at some river gauges across the region indicate that river flooding is about to occur or in some cases is already occuring. Some of the Main Stem rivers that will likely experience flooding are, The Missisquoi River in Eastern Franklin, and Western Orleans Counties, The Lamoille River in Lamoille County, and the Passumpsic River in Caledonia County. Latest river gauge readings are at least one hour old. And they indicate river levels anywhere from as much as 3 feet from flood stage to as little as a half a foot from flood stage, and they show that the rivers are continuing to rise rapidly. This is still from mainly the earlier rainfall. Things are expected to worsen significantly over night as more runoff rolls into these rivers. Stay tunned for further updates...

     I have posted a map of Current National Weather Service Alerts below...

UPDATE: Flood Alerts In Effect For All But 3 Countiues In Vermont

Update...
Flood alerts are in effect for all but Grand Isle, Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont. Flood advisories are in effect for Chittenden, Western Franklin, Western Addison, and Western Rutland Counties. Flood Warnings are in effect for Essex, Caledonia, Orleans, Orange, Washington, Windsor, Lamoille, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Addison, and Easter Rutland Counties. A line of Strong thunderstorms producing very heavy rain extrends from the Canadian border south to the Rutland/ Windsor, Bennington/ Windham County line. Rainfall rates of up to 1.5 inches per hour are falling, Heaviest across Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, Central Lamoille, and Central Washington Counties at this time. South of those counties ranfall rates with these thunderstorms are around 1 inch per hour. This is more then enough to cause continued flooding. Reports from Lyndon Vermont in Caledonia County is that route 122 is closed due to water just now covering that road from earlier rains. This line of storms has not made it to Lyndon yet. Once it does this will cause continued/ worsened flooding as well as possible flash flooding. Stay tunned for further updates...

UPDATE: Very Heavy Rain Spreading East; Additional Flood Warnings Issued

Update...
     Additional Flood Warnings have been issued for Eastern Orleans, Essex, and Caledonia Counties. The line of Strong thunderstorms continues to move east-northeast. These storms are expected to stay together and bring heavy rains into Essex, and Caledonia Counties. Heavy rain is currently spreading into Washington, Lamoille, Orleans, and Eastern Franklin Counties. Conditions are continuing to be monitored for the potential of Flash Flooding.

UPDATE: Flood Warnings continue; Flood Advisories Issued For Champlain Valley

Update...
     Conditions warrant an update prior to the 30 minutes. Flood Advisories have been issued for Addison, Chittenden, Rutland, and Western Franklin Counties. Flood Warnings that were to expire at 8:15PM for Orleans, Lamoille, Washington, and Eastern Franklin Counties have been re-issued. Threat for flash flooding is high across Eastern Franklin County and all of Washington, Lamoille, and Orleans County. Reports from Winooski, and Milton Vermont indicate frequent lightning and thunder with very heavy rain. Reports from Swanton Vermont indicate moderate rain with frequent lightning and thunder. Stay tunned for further updates...

Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Crossing Northern and Central Vermont; Flash Flood Potential High

     Currently a line of Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are located over the Champlain Valley of Vermont. These storms extend along a line from Georgia to Rutland, and Moving Northeast at around 35 MPH. These storms are expected to hit areas currently under a flash flood warning. Hourly rainfall totals are falling at a rate of up to 1.6 inches per hour. Rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch could fall in the path of these storms, this may lead to flash flooding. The counties of most concern are Lamoille, Washington, Orleans, and Eastern portions of Franklin County where Flood Warnings are already in effect from earlier heavy rains and flooding. Heavy rain is not the only threat damaging winds up to 60MPH could push through areas east of the thunderstorms. Stay tunned over the next couple hours for updates. Next update will be issued in 30 minutes. Less if conditions permit...

Rain Continues, Flooding Only Minor Thus Far

Update...
     Rain mainly light with some areas of heavier rain in Northeastern Vermont continues. Although breaks in the precipitation will become increasingly common. Widespread rainfall totals have been 1.5 - 2.5 inches with a more narrow band of 2.5 - 3.5 inches, along with a few isolated spots of 4 - 5 inches. Significantly lighter totals have been witnessed across Franklin and Grand Isle Counties in Vermont, as well as all of Northern New York except Southern Essex Counties. Rain totals across this area have generally been .5 - 1 inch across Franklin, and Grand Isle Counties in Vermont to a half inch or less in much of Northern New York.
     So far flooding has been minor, mainly on small streams, brooks, and small rivers. This is due to the fact that the precipitation has had significant time breaks in it. Such as the first batch came in yesterday morning, followed by a second round late evening, a third round overnight, and a fourth round this afternoon. So it has been spaced out just enough for area waterways for the most part to handle it. Main stem rivers are beginning to respond, but flooding should remain minor.
     A new rainfall total map has been issued mainly to reflect the lighter amounts of precipitation across extreme Northwestern Vermont, and Northern New York...

Flooding Rains Continue

Just a quick update...
     Moderate to heavy rain continues mainly across Central, and Southern Vermont. Due to radar trends and downstream observations, I have cut back totals in Northern New York and Vermont. Also the heavy rain axis has shifted more to the east. Flood Warnings have been issued for Addison, and Rutland Counties. Where 1 - 2.5 inches of rain has fallen and another 1 - 3 inches is expected. The areas most likely to experience and flooding impacts are Essex County in New York, and Central and Southern Vermont. Northern areas of Vermont no longer look as susceptible to Flooding as earlier indications, although isolated minor to perhaps moderate flooding could occur. Below are my updated maps...

Flooding Rains Spreading North

  Just a quick update...
     Heavy rain currently over Central, and Southern Vermont as well as upstate New York will continue moving North. Flash Flood Warnings have been issued for the Capital District region in New York to just south of Essex County New York. Rainfall rates from 1 - 2 inches per hour are falling in that area of heavy rain. This heavy rain will be slowly moving North into the Burlington Vermont region over the next hour or two, and to the Canadian border around 9 - 10PM. Lighter rain will be to the Canadian border within the next 30 minutes or so. Stay tuned to this blog and your local media and weather outlets for up-to-date information.

     I have posted a few maps, first being Current National Weather Service alerts, Second being the flood risk map, and third being a shot of the Northeast Radar...

Rain on its way, Significant Flooding Likely.

OVERVIEW:
     Rainfall has spread across Southern and Central Vermont, A brief break in the action will lead way to heavier rain later this evening across Western Vermont, and Northern New York. Tropical like air mass is overspreading the region as I speak. Of some concern is areas in Northern Vermont, and Northern New York have seen a bit of sun, this is helping to destabilize the atmosphere which could help in aiding the development of localized higher rainfall amounts then talked about below.

MODELS:
     This is the part that is absolutely amazing. All models including the NGM which is known for being "dry" is now indicating as much as 6 inches of rain. The GFS is now increasing its total precipitation amount and is showing areas of as much as 5 inches. The NAM model continues to be significantly higher with up to 10 inches across Southern Vermont. But with that said, the NAM is continuing to be consistent and the other models are now increasing the amount of rain we are expected to get. I will say though the NAM is still a bit high with as much as 10 inches of rain. But it bears watching.

WHAT TO EXPECT/ TIMING
     Rain will continue to overspread the area this late afternoon, and everyone should be experiencing rain by mid-evening. Rain will become heavy at times, and could contain some embedded thunderstorms. Where thunderstorms are, torrential rain will fall, and this could cause not just regular flooding problems but some Flash Flooding problems. This will need to be monitored closely as well. Rain should tapper off from Southwest to Northeast Thursday Evening. Total rainfall amounts will vary greatly from as little as 1 inches in parts of New Hampshire to as much as 4 inches with locally higher amounts approaching 8 or 9 inches. This is a serious situation and please continue to monitor your local weather and media outlets as well as this blog for further updates. Significant flooding will likely occur.

     Below is a map of the National Weather Service Current Alerts, and my precipitation forecast...

Significant Flooding Likely Across Northern New York, and All of Vermont

OVERVIEW:
     Its now time to get set for what could end up being a record setting weather event. Over the past two weeks several inches of rain has prepared the area for what could be a flood to remember.

COMPUTER MODELS:
     The latest information from the National Weather Service computer models are continuing to indicate as little as 2 inches to as much as 10 inches of rain. The NGM model which is always know for being the "dry" model is indicating as little as 1.5 inches to as much as 4 inches of rain. The GFS model I am still waiting for the latest update, but the model run at around 5PM indicated as little as 1.75 inches to as much as 4 inches of rain. The NAM model which just came out is indicating as little as 1.5 inches to as much as 10 inches of rain. Now this model is still the outlier. But of interesting note, it has been consistent and has been increasing the amount of precip with every model run. I will continue to not rely on this model, but it is something just to keep in the back of the mind. As this outlier has been correct before when it was ruled as being an outlier. Depending on what the GFS model indicates, I may issue another update shortly after this one when that models latest run comes out. Also to quickly note, the heavy rain axis has shifted a bit further to the west. I will have to keep an eye on this to possibly shift the heaviest rainfall totals on my map further to the west.

WHAT TO EXPECT/ TIMING:
     You can expect tomorrow morning to be mostly cloudy, any sunshine will rapidly be covered by clouds by late morning. Rain will begin to develop across Southern Vermont and New Hampshire as early as Late Wednesday Morning. By early Wednesday Evening all areas will be seeing rain. Rain will become heavy at times, especially into the overnight hours. On Thursday rain will continue and end from South to North. Rain should taper off across the entire area by early evening.

     Below are several maps, first is of the Current National Weather Service alerts, second is of what I feel should be issued for alerts, third map is the risk area for flooding, and the final map is my forecasted rainfall totals...

Potential Significant Flood Threat Increasing

Hey Everyone,
Need to send out a very important update. Now usualy when I go ahead and post for a significant weather event it does not happen. This situation is increasingly serious. As more model data comes in, its more up-to-date and it continues to show the potential for significant flooding State wide. Last model run earlier this morning showing tropical like moisture expected to begin entering the region late today. Precipitable water values for Wednesday into Thursday are forecasted to be as high as 2.2 inches. Just an example as to how moist and tropical like of an atmosphere we are in, down in the Gulf of Mexico down to the carribean Pwat values are at 2.3 inches. So with that stated we are going to be in an extremly moist atmosphere. With the atmosphere being so moist rain will have the potential to fall very heavy. The NAM model currently indicates 2 - 7 inches of rain could fall. The 7 inches may be a bit overdone. But still a good 2 - 4 inches of rain could fall, which will cause problems. And if the 7 inch amounts materialize we could be looking at recording flooding. But please dont get overly worried about it yet. Just continue to monitor forecast for further developments on this potential serious weather situation.

I have to go to work so I am unable to get into more detail. I will update when I get home.

Potential Significant Flood/ Flash Flooding Wednesday into Thursday

Hey everyone,
     This rainy pattern just does not want to stop. It seems like we have had thunderstorms everyday for the entire summer. But in reality we obviously haven't. Over the last two weeks we have seen 3 - 6 inches of rain with isolated amounts up to 8 inches. Much of that occuring Friday and yesterday. Over the past two months we have seen anywhere from 8 inches to as much as 20 inches of rain!!!! Some isolated areas across Northern New York and Vermont are 400% of Normal for precipitation!!!! Today there were isolated thunderstorms with heavy rain but it was not widespread. Although it only took a little bit of rain to cause some minor problems. One area that was hit with heavy rain today was East Fairfield and Bakersfield, the heavy rain that likely accumulated around an three quarters of an inch caused significant run off which only adds to the already swollen waterways. Field flooding had already occurred and was still ongoing from Friday and Yesterday, and today's rain only aggravated things a bit. With this said the threat of heavy rainfall Wednesday into Thursday will bring the potential for Flooding and Flash Flooding.
     A tropical-like airmass is expected to overspread the region Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning, with rain developing by Mid Wednesday. The rain will likely become heavy at times, and with any thunderstorms that for, rain will become torrential. Models are indicating as little as 1.75 inches to as much as 6 inches of rain across the region. I am in strong agreement at this point with the national weather service of the models being overdone but we could easily see 1 - 3 inches of rain. The heaviest rain right now is expected to be over the Champlain Valley and points east. The potential of river flooding as of current forecasts are high for the Valleys and higher elevations with a significant Flash Flood threat across the higher/ hilly terrain. Stay tunned to local forecasts and your local media and weather outlets as well as this blog for any further updates. Below I posted my own map of the areas with an increased threat for Flooding. STAY TUNNED!