Flash Flood/ Severe Weather Update

Hey Everyone,
     Just a quick update, a Severe Thunderstorm watch has been issued for far Southern Vermont, and all of Northern New York. The watch box covers the entire state of Vermont, but for some reason, they wont include those counties into the watch. I am checking forecast discussions, to figure out why this is. You will see an image down at the end of this post, and you will see what I mean. Beside that, the flash flood watch contiues for the same areas as before. So no update to that.
     Currently on Radar strong to severe thunderstorms are over Central/ Western New York Moving east-northeast into Northern New York. The primary threats being Damaging Winds, and Flooding Rains. Another line of less intense storms are behind this, these storms primary threat are for heavy rain. It is going to be tough to determine how far east the severe weather threat will be, but in my opinion a Severe Thunderstorm watch should be issued for the remainded of the State of Vermont. Although it will be tough to maintain a severe threat in Eastern Vermont, by the time the storms arrive. Below is several maps with explanations with each one. Stay tunned to your local weather and media outlets as well as this blog for further updated on this developing weather situation.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Outline, And Counties
This is what I was explaining earlier. This is the Severe thunderstorm watch from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK. As you can see the outline covers a large area and much of whats inside that watch outline is filled in with a dark blue color. That shows the watch is valid for those counties. They have not allowed the watch outline over Central and Northern Vermont to be valid. In the western portion of this watch you will see the same thing. Those counties however are under a seperate watch thats why they are not filled in. I have been unable to figure out why they wont allow the watch to be active for Northern and Central Vermont.


National Weather Service Current Alerts
This is an image of the current National Weathther Service Alerts for the area.


My Current Alerts
This is an image of the alerts I feel should be issued.


Flooding Potential
This is an image of the flooding potential, I have still not updated this since last night. There is no need to, the threat is the same as it was last night.

Flash Flood Watch Issued For Much of Vermont

Hey Everyone,
     The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT has issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of Vermont, and portions of Northern New York. The National Weather Service in Grey, ME has issued a Flash Flood Watch for portions of Northern New Hampshire. As of now the The National Weather Service out of Albany, NY has not issued a Flash Flood Watch for the two southernmost counties in Vermont, Bennington, and Windham.
     The most vulnerable areas for Flash Flooding will be across Central/ Southern Vermont, where 3 - 4 inches of rain fall last night. The Otter Creek and Poultney river are still continuing to rise rapidly. But at this point they do appear to stay within there banks. They very well could flood depending on how much rain falls later today across that area. With a very moist atmosphere any storms that develop today could drop 1 - 3 inches of rain in an hour.
     Of another concern is the potential of Severe thunderstorms. Instability is expected to become moderate, and the upper wind fields for severe storms are much better then yesterday. Although wind fields are greater the storms will still continue to be slow movers. Storms that develop today have the best potential to produce damaging winds, second threat heavy rain, third threat being hail, and last threat is the potential of an isolated tornado across Southern Vermont. Below is a few maps. First being National Weather Service Current Alerts, then My map of Current Alerts, then the final map being where the best chance for flooding is. The last 2 maps have not been updated from last night due to the fact they are still valid, no changes need to be made to them as of right now. As always stay tuned to your local weather and media outlets, as well as this blog for any further updates on this developing weather situation...

Flash Flooding Update

Hey Everyone,
     Just another quick update. The National Weather Service out of Burlington Vermont, has issued a new/ continued Flash Flood Warning for Rutland, and Windsor Counties. Another training/ back building thunderstorm has been dropping 1 - 2 inches in an hour or less. Doppler radar indicates as much as 3.9 inches of rain has fallen across Southern Vermont.There very well could be more then that, especially with a confirmed total of 2.35 inches at 6:45PM in Rutland. There has easily been another 2 inches that has fallen across that area if not a bit more. For a rare change the radar may actually be under estimating the rainfall totals by a bit.
     Another interesting note is that the heavy rain has been widespread enough over Rutland County that a couple main stem rivers are showing very sharp rises. This will have to be monitored closely. Things are becoming increasingly interesting for later today, 6/29. I have several images posted below, a brief description will be with each. As always please stay tuned to your local weather and media outlets as well as here for any further updates on this developing weather situation.

Storm Total Precipitation - Zoomed Out
This is an area wide shot of total precipitation for the day. Down in Southern Vermont, most of the precipitation fell since 5PM. As you can see as much as 3.9 inches of rain was estimated to have fallen by the radar.


Storm Total Precipitation - Zoomed In
This is a zoomed in image on Southern Vermont of the total precipitation, once again you can see radar indicates up to 3.9 inches of rain has fallen. Much of that since 5PM.


Otter Creek River Gauge
This is an image of the Otter Creek river gauge, as you can see the river has made an extremely sharp rise, and at its last update it continued to show the river was rapidly rising.


Poultney River Gauge
This is an image of the Poultney river gauge, as you can see the river has made an extremely sharp rise, and at its last update it continued to show the river was rapidly rising.


Northeastern Composite Radar
This is an image of the Northeastern United States Composite Radar. The area circled in red is an area that will need to be watched over the next several hours, for any intensifiation. As you can see in the northern part there is an intense area of convection. This needs to be monitored closely.

Flash Flooding Ongoing across Rutland County Vermont

Hey Everyone,
     Just a quick update. A flash flood warning has been issued by the National Weather Service for Rutland, and Windsor Counties. Heavy rain over the past several hours has resulted in over 2 inches of rain falling, leading to significant runoff and Flash Flooding. A cooperative observer from Rutland County reported 2.35 inches of rain in 1 hour and 45 minutes earlier this evening. Moderate to heavy rain continues, and Law enforcement officials have reported numerous flooded basements and road closures across Rutland City. Heavy rain will taper off over the next hour or two before some additional rain in western New York makes it into the same area over night. The rain tonight should not be as heavy as earlier, however up to an additional inch of rain could be expected overnight tonight.
     Tomorrow, additional problems will unfold as more numerous showers and thunderstorms develop, at this time it appears once again the heaviest rain will fall across Northern New York and Central/ Southern Vermont. Storms are expected to be slow movers again tomorrow, and with an extremely moist atmosphere torrential rain will likely fall in any of these storms. I have made a couple maps, one being my own current alerts map. I feel a flash flood watch should be issued for much of the area except the Northern Champlain Valley, and South-Eastern New Hampshire. The second map is where I am forecasting the highest likelihood of flash flooding. Stay tuned to your local media, and weather outlets for further updates on this developing situation.

Flood Threat To Increase Once Again

Hey Everyone,
     It seems like we cant get away from these strong showers/ thunderstorms day after day. Knowing this, the ground is still very moist, and with more numerous showers and thunderstorms, along with atmospherical conditions being right, things could set up for some Flooding problems this weekend. It has been drier I shall say but ground conditions as stated before are still very moist.
     For today 6/28 and Tomorrow 6/29 the atmosphere will be very juicy I will call it. With dew points in the 60's and precipitable water values around 2 inches!! The atmosphere in the least will be extremely moist. Once storms pop up in the afternoon today and Sunday, with no real push in the upper layers of the atmosphere these storms will move slow, producing torrential rains. We could be talking about rainfall rates of 2 inches per hour, and perhaps a bit more. Now I do want to urge that this much rain is NOT going to fall across the entire area but some spotty locations will receive these excessive amounts of rain, leading to the potential of Flash Flooding, especially where the slowest moving storms are and where storms form over the same areas. At this point there is no real specific area that could see the highest potential of flooding as of yet. But due to the fact of storms yesterday 6/27, strongest being to the south, I will say Southern Vermont and Central New York have the best chance to have any flooding problems, although any of these slow, back building storms wont have much problem producing significant and potential flooding rainfall on there own, anywhere they pop up. Stay tuned to your local media and weather outlets for further updates on this situation.

Flood Threat Still Continues

Hey everyone,
     I am sure hearing about the flood potential has been like listening to a broken record, but the threat still continues. Several days ago I mentioned they had Flash Flooding in Montgomery. Well yesterday they had some flooding in Fairfield, on Buck Hollow Rd. The road was shut down for several hours. Now these instances of flooding are nowhere near widespread but with the ground being saturated and these bouts of rain we have had every day for the last week or so have been really adding up. Over the past 7 days the entire State of Vermont, and Northern New York has received at minimum a half inch. Not very impressive I know, however as much as 5 inches of rain has fallen in a few areas. Average rainfall across the area has been around an inch and a half. But of most concern are the areas that have seen the most rain. The areas that have seen 3 - 5 inches of rain have been the Extreme Northern Champlain Valley, North-Central Vermont, Northeast Vermont, and the St. Lawrence Valley of New York. To make things worse we will continue to see showers some of which could be heavy through Sunday. Then Sunday into Sunday Night a widespread rain event is likely, forecasted to drop 1 - 2 inches of rain. This will likely cause some widespread minor flooding across Vermont, and New York, especially where the heaviest rain has occurred. Things will need to be monitored for the possibility of significant flooding in places such as Montgomery, Vermont. Below is an updated flood map...

Error with last post

Hey,
I just wanted to apologize, the last post was should have been posted at aroud 11:50PM last night, but for some reason, there was an error, and when I woke up this morning, it showed that it had never posted. So I would like apologize for the inconvienence.

Upper Level Low Stalls Out; Flood Threat Continues

Hey Everyone,
     I wanted to update earlier but I was unable to. The update was about the flooding potential shifting to the north. Vermont Agency of Transportation (AOT) had reported some flooding in Montgomery Center earlier today. I will get back to the flooding situation shortly. First I want to explain what is causing it all.
     A pesky stalled out upper level low has been causing the recent unsettled weather. Unfortunately things wont be changing anytime soon. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the next 5 days, as then upper level low parks itself over the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be most common during the afternoon, and evening hours, as the sun will help destabilize the atmosphere. None of these storms are expected to be severe, but due to the cold air aloft, small hail, and gusts to 35 MPH are possible in any thunderstorms.
     Now back to the Flooding situation/ potential. I have not heard anymore on the flooding in Montgomery Center, from what I heard earlier though, it was not severe flooding just some minor road, and poor drainage flooding. Storms that formed today just sat there and back built causing moderate to heavy rain fall over the same areas that have seen thunderstorms the past several days. So needless to say the ground is saturated and its starting to show. If any strong thunderstorms form tomorrow (6/18) then they could produce enough rain to cause some additional flooding. I feel there is a slight risk for flash flooding. So the map that I have issued shows where the highest flooding potential is. Now I want to urge, this map does not mean there is going to be widespread major flooding, it just shows the areas with the highest likely hood of seeing some flooding. The area shaded in red, has the highest threat of isolated flash flooding with any back building strong thunderstorms. Once again, no widespread flooding of any type is expected.

Severe Weather And Flash Flood Threat Into This Evening

Hello Everyone,
     I am back from work, and able to update everyone on the severe weather and flash flood potential for the rest of today/ tonight. Currently numerous showers and thunderstorms are across the region, most concentrated areas are Central/ Southern Vermont, Central/ Southern New Hampshire, and Central/ Southern/ Western New York. Some of these storms are severe with the most significant threat being large hail. Damaging wind is the secondary threat, with the final threat being an outside chance of a tornado across extreme southern Vermont.
     The northern areas of Vermont, New York, and New Hampshire have for the most part been able to avoid significant thunderstorms. Although now there is an area being watched across the St. Lawerence Valley, that is moving to the east. Depending on how fast this area of showers will make it across the area will determine whether or not it will be severe. The likelyhood of these storms being severe across Northern New York, and Northwestern Vermont is fairly good, but if they take longer to travel across the area then the severe weather threat may diminish due to the setting of the sun. Right now though as stated before the most significant threat for Severe weather will be further to the south, as you will see in the enhanced areas on the severe weather outlook maps below. (From the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center).
     Now to touch on the Flash flood threat, as always severe thunderstorms drop heavy rainfall, with Flash Flooding occuring two days ago in Central/ South-Central Vermont, storms currently moving through that area, very well could cause more flash flooding. I have made another map for today showing where the enhanced Flash Flood Threat will be. Stay tunned to your local weather/ media outlets for further updates on this developing weather situation.

Severe Weather Outlook




Tornado Threat




Hail Threat




Damaging Wind Threat




Flash Flood Threat

Flash Flooding Across Central/ South-Central Vermont

Hey Everyone,
     The flash flood threat I had mentioned in the previous post has materialized. A large area of intense rain and thunderstorms formed late this evening in Central/ South-Central Vermont. Dropping as much as 7 inches of rain in only a few hours. Numerous reports of Flash Flooding have been recieved by the National Weather Service, and there have been Flash Flood Warnings issued for that area.
     Rain is currently tappering off across Central/ South-Central Vermont with only a tenth to a quarter inch of additional rainfall expected. Brooks, Streams, and Small rivers will continue to rise rapidly over the next several hours, as runoff continues. If you live along a waterway in Rutland, Windsor, Addison, Orange, or Washington Counties it is urged to move to higher ground.
     For later today 6/15 and tomorrow 6/16 the flash flood threat will continue as more showers and thunderstorms are expected. This meaning additional flash flooding may occur this afternoon and evening, as well as tomorrow. Check out the maps below for current alerts, and where the highest threat of continued flash flooding is...

Flash Flood Threat For New York and Vermont

Hey Everyone,
     Before I get onto the current flood threat, I just wanted to brush over the last post about the Severe Weather Outbreak. I was unable to update again on that due to work. But the severe weather outbreak did materialize causing widespread damage across Northern New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire. A tornado watch was issued around 9AM, although no "confirmed" Tornadoes were spotted, approx. 15 people in Richford Vermont witnessed a funnel cloud dropping to the ground. Another unconfirmed Tornado occurred in South Central Vermont with a damage path about 300 feet wide, and 3 miles long. The storms also took the life of a Swanton Man, and nearly claimed the life of another, the two men who were out on Lake Champlain in a Canoe, were unable to take cover, when the line of Severe Thunderstorms swept through. The Canoe capsized with the two men inside, the Canoe struck one man in the head knocking him out, and subsequently drowning. The other man in the Canoe was uninjured.

     Now to the Flash Flood Threat. Today although upper air dynamics are not outstanding, enhanced CAPE, lifted index, and Total Totals will aid in the continuation of Thunderstorm development. Some of which could be isolated severe. The main threat will be for flooding though, as preceptable water values are near 2 inches, and dewpoints in the upper 60's and low 70's. With upper air dynamics being low, these storms have the ability to move very slow, and back build, enhancing the flood threat. Storms could drop 1 to as much as 3 inches in a short period of time. The place of most concern will be the Western slopes of the Green Mountains into eastern Vermont. This area has the most hilly terrain which may prove problematic. National Weather Service Flash Flood Guidance indicates that anywhere from 1.8 to 2.5 inches of rain would be needed in 1 hour to produce flash flooding. This is quite a bit of rain but this is very possible with the extremely moist atmosphere, and slow moving/ back building thunderstorms. I do want to urge though, this is not a widespread Flash Flood Threat. Below are maps of the areas most likely to see any type of flooding.

Potential Severe Weather Outbreak Across Northeast US

Hey everyone,
     Its been since April since I have posted, I have been pretty busy, but I have made some time to post a blog, especially with the potential of severe weather tomorrow. We will get more into that in a moment, after we do a quick run over current conditions. Currently across Northern New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire temperatures are still in the mid to upper 70's with isolated 80 degree readings in the Valley Locations, with Low to Mid 70's in the Higher elevations. This is very impressive, especially with it being 11:20 at night. To make things even worse dew points are in the mid to upper 60's with a few areas with 70 degree dew points. This is absolutely oppressive, and will make tonight a very difficult sleeping night, especially for the folks without air conditioners.
     Current radar trends show a weakening MCS (area of numerous thunderstorms) beginning to round the ridge in the Northeast (Currently Across Western New York). At this point it may clip the St. Lawrence Valley, and along the Canadian Border of Northern New York, and Vermont, if it does not weaken completely. Also there is a few pop up showers and thunderstorms across Central, and Northern New York moving east, these shouldn't be severe but of the strongest there could be some cloud to ground lightning, and wind gusts to 35MPH, this activity should actually diminish as the night goes on. Although there are still some pockets of elevated instability across Northern New York, and Northern Vermont, as well as the entire Champlain Valley.
     Now onto the potential Severe Weather Outbreak tomorrow. Indications are that temps will warm in the upper 80's to around 90 in the Valleys and a bit cooler in the mountains, with some sunshine, and high dewpoints. This will help increase the instability in the atmosphere bringing surface based CAPE as high as 3000 J/kg!!! CAPE is Convective Available Potential Energy. This combined with other severe weather parameters and some strong winds aloft will help set the stage for Strong to Severe Thunderstorms. The main line of Severe Thunderstorms should move across Northern New York by 3PM across the Champlain Valley of Vermont by 5PM, and across the remainder of Vermont and New Hampshire by 9PM. Other storms will likely form out ahead of the main line of severe thunderstorms, these discrete cells are the ones which will bring the Large hail, and isolated Tornado potential. When the main line of storms moves through the highest threat will be for damaging wind.
     Below I have posted the Storm Prediction Centers Day 2 Convective outlook and the map below that shows the increased severe weather potential in the red outlined 30% Zone. This is where the highest potential of any isolated Tornado would be. Stay tuned for any further updates!