Wintry Mix Now Changing Over To Rain

Local Update...
   Wintry Mix Changing To Rain In The Deeper Valley Locations...

     National Weather Service Doppler radar, and surface observations are indicating the snow, and sleet is changing over to sleet, and rain. At the National Weather Service in Burlington, VT light rain is being reported, Here in Swanton a light rain/ sleet mixture is occurring, in Winooski a spotter reported a light rain/ sleet mixture. Currently National Weather Service spotter reports have indicated general snowfall amounts being a half inch, with a couple places reporting an inch or a bit more. Any snow across the region will rapidly change over to a sleet, freezing rain mixture, and then to rain. The colder sheltered valleys in Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New York will see some freezing rain last until mid morning. So the Winter Weather Advisory that I issued continues only for the Northern Adirondack Mountain, and the St. Lawrence Valley, and North-Central, Northeast, and Central Vermont. Southern Vermont, and Windsor, and Eastern Rutland counties are no longer in a winter weather Advisory from JRWeather. Total snow/ sleet accumulations will range from 1-3 inches, with ice accumulations of up to a quarter inch for the places under the advisory. The National Weather Service continues a Winter Weather Advisory for all of Vermont, and Northern New York, for a total of 1-3 inches of snow/ sleet with light ice accumulations. Stay tuned for any further updates. Updated maps below...

Wintry Mix On Tap To Strike Vermont, and Northern New York

Local Update...
   Monday Morning Commute May Be Hampered By A Wintry Mix...

     The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT, and The National Weather Service In Albany, NY (For Southern Two Counties Of Vermont) has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of Vermont, and Northern New York. JRWeather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of Vermont, except the Champlain Valley, and Connecticut River Valley, and For all of Northern NY, and a Wind Advisory for the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. The National Weather Service is forecasting 2-5 inches in the Champlain Valley, and 3-6 inches elsewhere, with all areas experiencing light icing. JRWeather is forecasting 1-3 inches for the Champlain Valley, and Connecticut River Valley. With 3-6 inches elsewhere, with all areas experiencing light icing, the eastern slopes of the green mountains could see local amounts in excess of 6 inches. National Weather Service Alerts, JRWeather Alerts, and Forecasted snow accumulations are on maps below...
     Computer models in better agreement for the most part on how the storm will evolve. An upper level low over the mid-west region and a surface low pressure system over the Southeast united states will work in unison to bring a variety of wintry precipitation starting as snow. The upper level low over the mid-west will help to bring in warm air over the region, as well as drawing significant moisture from the surface low, the surface low alone is also drawing a significant amount of moisture out of the gulf of Mexico, and eventually the Atlantic. Light snow should break out from South to North around 4-6PM. Snow will become increasingly heavy and will start to mix with sleet, and potentially some freezing rain, especially around/ after midnight. As the morning progresses snow/ sleet/ and freezing rain will change to mainly rain by mid-late Monday morning. Likely a bit earlier in the Champlain Valley, and a bit later in the St. Lawrence Valley, and the sheltered valleys of Northeastern Vermont.
     Another concern will be the strong wind potential. With a strong easterly component, wind will likely be funneled through the western slopes of the green mountains in the favorable downslope communities. There should be no damaging winds but occasional gusts up to 45-50MPH will be likely into Monday Afternoon. Travel will likely become difficult Sunday night into Monday Morning, snow is likely to fall heavy at times overnight. Conditions should improve as we get into the afternoon Monday. If your traveling, if possible wait until late Monday morning to travel, if you must travel earlier Monday morning, make sure to leave extra time to get to your destination, and drive defensively, leave plenty of room between you and other vehicles. Stay tuned for further updates...

Another Messy Mix For Sunday Night Into Monday Night

Local Update...
   Another Messy Wintry Mix Is Possible Across The Region For Sunday Night Into Monday Night...

     Currently models are indicating the potential for another wintry mix across the region. The 18Z NAM is showing not much of a storm, while the previous run 12Z showed 3-6 inches of snow. So I am not sure if its just a single run mishap on the model or not. I am still waiting for 18Z GFS to come in, but one thing that has been a trend on all the previous model runs, is weakening the storm system some, and moving it a bit further west. This would mean a wintry mix for much of Vermont, and Northern New York, including some rain. A few things that don't make sense to me, are the fact that a massive surge of cold air, makes it deep into the south, with a very strong squall line traveling across Cuba!! Now I understand a squall line can move through with a cold front, but the thing is, without a significantly strong storm, how is this cold air going to push this fast, this far south without the aid of a strong storm system. So I am not sure if the models are having a difficult time with showing the storm system or if they are inaccurately displaying the cold air surge. Hopefully the 00Z model runs or further model runs tomorrow will help clear things up a bit. At this point though, its a tough storm to call. I have not issued any maps as of yet, maybe I will later tonight, or tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Significant Lake Effect Snow Continues

Local Update...
   Heavy Lake Effect Snow Continues For Portions of Northern New York...

     Just a very quick update as its Thanksgiving and I need to go spend time with my amazing Melissa today. So overall snow has been a bit heavier then expected. The National Weather Service has issued a Lake Effect Snow Warning for Southeastern, and Southwestern St. Lawrence County, and leave the Lake Effect Snow advisory in place. JRWeather has expanded the Lake Effect Snow Warning to cover Southwestern St. Lawrence County. Across the southern portions of St. Lawrence county snowfall reports have already reached the 6-10 inch range, and currently moderate to heavy snow is falling. Below are the updated maps, stay tuned.

Lake Effect Snow To Gobble Up Some Turkey Day Plans

Local Update...
   Lake Effect Snow To Put A Damper On Some Thanksgiving Day Plans...

     It appears that some significant snowfall may cause some headache for some across Northern New York for Thanksgiving, but at least its not a widespread problem. The National Weather Service has issued a Lake Effect Snow Advisory for Southeastern, and Southwestern St. Lawrence, Southern Franklin, and Western Essex Counties in New York. Previous lake "enhanced" snow is now becoming lake "effect" snow. (The difference being lake "enhanced" snow is when moisture in the atmosphere is falling as snow, however some moisture from a larger lake helps enhance the snowfall. With true lake "effect" being moisture strictly from a larger lake.) Anyway, this means the snow is not as widespread as yesterday, however areas that remain under the lake effect snow band will pick up some significant amounts of snow. Currently the heaviest portion of the lake effect snow band is across Central and Southern St. Lawrence County. This will likely extend further to the Northeast, and drop south and bring some heavier snows to Southern Franklin, and Western Essex Counties.
     Radar is indicating that the snow band is beginning to shift southward slowly, and is actually slightly weakening, but the band if likely to restrengthen over the next several hours. Snow moderate to occasionally heavy will be likely across portions of Northern New York throughout the day today, which will lead to some travel headaches for those of of you traveling for thanksgiving. By Friday morning snow should have just about ended with a few remaining snow showers/ flurries.
     Snow totals will range from 3-6 inches across a large portion of St. Lawrence, Franklin, and Western Essex Counties, and a more isolated area of 6-12 inches across extreme southern St. Lawrence County. Also to mention is the fact that some of this moisture will likely make it to the Western Slopes of the Green mountains in Vermont, where some upslope enhancement will help drop 1-3 inches of snow in many of the western slope communities.
     At this time JRWeather has a Lake Effect Snow Warning for Southeastern St. Lawrence County, and A Lake Effect Snow Advisory for Southwestern St. Lawrence, Southern Franklin, and Western Essex Counties. The National Weather Service has a Lake Effect Snow Advisory out for Southeastern, and Southwestern St. Lawrence, Southern Franklin, and Western Essex Counties. Stay Tuned for further updates. Maps below...

P.S. Have a happy thanksgiving everyone!!!!

Storm Coming To An End

Local Update...
   Rain And Snow Coming To An End Across Vermont, And Northern New York...

     The complex storm system that has been effecting the area since yesterday is slowly coming to an end. The upper level low pressure system will sit over the area for a day or two but it will bring no more then a chance for Mountain Snow showers, and Valley Rain/Snow showers. No significant accumulations are expected except across the Northern Adirondack mountains, where lake effect snow from Lake Ontario will likely fall across Southern St. Lawrence, Southern Franklin, Southwestern Clinton, and Eastern Essex Counties. At this time snow accumulations look to be in the 4-8 inch range. But this is expected to last over a 48 hour period or so. Things will have to be monitored on this situation. Infact the wind flow may become Southwest enough to stream some moisture into the Champlain Valley, and the Western Slopes of the Northern Green Mountains. Where the western slope areas could also pick up several inches of snow. As stated things will continue to be monitored. More on that potential snow event will be coming up tomorrow. Stay tuned.

All National Weather Service, and JRWeather alerts are no longer in effect, everything has been dropped. Have a nice night!!

Storm System Not Going As Planned

Local Update...
   Complex Storm System Tough To Forecast, More Snow Expected Before Storm Ends...

     The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has cancelled the high wind warning, for Northeastern Vermont, and the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains, and has replaced it with a Wind Advisory, excluding Eastern Addison, and Eastern Rutland Counties. The Winter Storm Warning in effect for the Northern Adirondack mountains has been cancelled as well. My alerts also drop a High Wind Warning but replace it with a Wind Advisory, for the Western Slopes of The Green Mountains, and the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. My Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Northern New York.
     There has been some interesting observations with this storm. For instance enough cold air held in place along the eastern Slopes of the Green Mountains, and in Eastern Vermont to produce a nice Swath of 3-6 inches of snow. With isolated higher amounts including up to 12 inches in Killington Village, 9 inches in North Walden, 8 inches in Brookfield, and 6.5 inches in North Pomfret. The only areas along the east slopes of the green mountains, and eastern Vermont that will see any additional snow, will be elevations about 2000 feet, and it wont be more than an additional inch or two. Another interesting factor, is for Northern New York, not quite as much snow has fallen across the Northern Adirondacks, but in the Southern Adirondacks snow totals have been in the 6-9 inch range with isolated higher amounts. The Northern Adirondacks have only seen 1-3 inches so far, however one last slug of moisture will pull in the the Northern Adirondack Mountains over the next couple of hours, and produce and additional 1-3 inches of snow, bringing totals in the 2-6 inch range, so I will continue my Winter Weather Advisory for this area. I have not put one on my map for eastern Vermont, because they have are now well into the warm sector, and any additional minor snow totals will not be widespread enough. One final things are wind, the winds did not materialize due to a very weak low pressure actually being able to form over Long Island, it was not very strong, so it couldn't help pull more snow back into much of the area, but it was strong enough to help weaken the wind field over Vermont. A few gusts of up to 45MPH will continue at the higher elevations. So I will leave my wind advisory up for a few more hours. Stay tuned for further updates. Maps below...

Significant Storm System To Effect The Region

Local Update...
   Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain, Plain Rain, and Strong To Damaging Winds To Effect Vermont, and Northern New York...

     The National Weather Service in Burlington Vermont, has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Northern Adirondack mountains, a High Wind Warning for the spine of the Green mountains, and northeastern Vermont, a Wind Advisory for Washington, and Orange Counties, and a Winter Weather Advisory for Windsor, Orange, and Eastern Rutland Counties. The National Weather Service in Albany, NY has issued a Flood Watch and Winter Weather Advisory for the southern two counties in Vermont. Below is my own alerts map that I issued, I have a few different points so my alerts map is a bit different.
     Computer models are indicating a complex weather system will strike the area, with a variety of different conditions. Its been difficult to forecast, and remains difficult, its pretty much one of those "Wait and see" type storms. Reason for this being the thermal profiles are split right over the top of the area, for instance Northern New York will see mainly snow, while Vermont, will likely see more rain. Models recently have trended just a tad cooler, which could mean more snow for eastern New York, and Western Vermont, however with shadowing from the green mountains due to the southeasterly winds, will cut down on precipitation totals, especially across the Northern Champlain Valley. So I have not adjusted snow totals that much, we will have to see how things unfold as precipitation starts to fall. One guarantee is everyone will see some snow, and there will be some strong winds. The most concerning area is for the communities along the western slopes of the green mountains, winds are forecasted to be in the 30 - 40MPH range with gusts as high as 70MPH. Check out the maps below, and stay tuned for further updates.

JRWeather Issues Its Own Alerts For Upcoming Storm

Local Update...
   JRWeather Issues Its Own Alerts For Upcoming Storm, Winter Weather Advisory, High Wind Watch, and Wind Advisory In Effect For Portions Of Northern New York, and Vermont...


     After the recent set of model runs came in, going with what I feel, along with guidance from many other places I have decided to call for 1-3 inches of Snow across much of the area, with 3 - 6 inches of Snow/ sleet and some light freezing rain for portions of the Northern Adirondacks. With this much snow along with the chance for some freezing rain forecasted I have issued my own alerts map, this includes a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the Northern Adirondacks, and a Wind Advisory for much of Vermont, and also a high wind watch which is the same as the National Weather Services. If current indications continue then the National Weather Service will also likely issue a wind advisory for much of Vermont, and a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of Northern New York, sometime tomorrow. Stay tuned for further updates. Maps below...

Strong To Damaging Winds Possible For The Western Slopes Of The Green Mountains

Local Update...
   High Wind Watch In Effect For The Western Slopes Of The Green Mountains For Tuesday through Tuesday Night...


     Read the previous post for more information on this storm system, this post will only entail the information on the high wind watch, and wind speeds for this event.

     The National Weather Service In Burlington, VT has issued a High Wind Watch which is in effect for the western slopes of the Green Mountains. A storm system to effect the region Monday Night through Tuesday night will interact with a blocking high pressure system resulting in a very tight pressure gradient. Winds will be in the 25 - 40MPH range with gusts to 60MPH. Summits could see gusts in excess of 70MPH!!! In these downslope wind events winds will be strong to damaging in the favorable areas along the western slopes of the green mountains, but in the Champlain Valley of Vermont winds will seem calm compared to those areas under the watch. For the Champlain Valley of Vermont, and the remainder of Vermont, and Northern New York winds will be in the 10 - 20MPH range with peak gusts to near 40MPH the highest gusts in the higher elevations of New York, and across Eastern Vermont. Stay tuned!

UPDATE: Significant Snowstorm Possible Monday Through Tuesday

Local Update...
   Messy Wintry Mix To Effect Vermont, and Northern New York...


     A complex weather system is forecasted to effect the area Monday night through Tuesday night. Not as much snow is expected as was first thought a few days ago.
     A low pressure system is forecasted to move Southeast from Canada, similar to an Alberta clipper, the low pressure system will move from the Great Lakes region into Western New York, and then pretty much stall out. Most models are indicated a wave of low pressure trying to form off the coast of Long Island. Previous model runs should a low pressure system forming off the coast of Long Island, which would have led to significantly more snow, but this is no longer the case. With the storm staying and wobbling around over upper New York State it appears that warmer air will move in to the region and cause a messy mix, due to warmer air aloft. It will be interesting as to how much warmer air makes it to the surface or not. But for the Champlain Valley of Vermont, East-southeasterly winds will help produce shadowing, and downsloping which will help warm and also limit the amounts of precipitation. Never-the-less the entire area will need to monitor the potential for freezing rain and sleet. At this time however it looks to be a snow/ sleet/ freezing rain changing to plain rain event for nearly all of the area. Total snow accumulations will range from 1 - 3 inches by late Tuesday night, with the heaviest amounts being along the Southeastern slopes of the southern green mountains, and the lowest amounts being in the Champlain Valley. Strong to possible damaging winds will have to be watched for the higher terrain of eastern Vermont, and the downslope regions of the western slopes of the Green mountains. A wind advisory will likely be issued for those areas later today or tomorrow morning. Stay tuned for further updates!

Updated Snow Total List

     More snow totals have been recieved since late last night so I issued an updated list. Most were courtesy of the National Weather Service in Burlington, VT it will also be in a similar format as they issue, with a few that I personally added to the list.

SNOW TOTALS

NEW YORK

...ESSEX COUNTY...
NEWCOMB.........0.4

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
TUPPER LAKE...........2.0
MALONE...........1.0


VERMONT

...ADDISON COUNTY...
JERUSALEM..........16.0
STARKSBORO..........12.0
WEST LINCOLN..........10.0
SOUTH LINCOLN..........8.4
MIDDLEBURY..........3.0
NEW HAVEN..........Trace

...CALEDONIA COUNTY...
SUTTON..........3.0
SAINT JOHNSBURY..........0.1

...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...
JERICHO..........11.0
NORTH UNDERHILL..........10.9
WESTFORD..........7.8
HANKSVILLE..........6.9
HINESBURG..........4.5
WEST BOLTON..........4.0
SOUTH BURLINGTON..........1.4

...ESSEX COUNTY...
ISLAND POND..........2.0

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
FAIRFAX..........5.0
BAKERSFIELD..........5.0
FLETCHER..........4.0
RICHFORD..........3.5
ENOSBURGH..........2.5
ENOSBURGH FALLS..........2.0
SHELDON..........1.0
EAST HIGHGATE..........0.5
SWANTON VILLAGE..........0.3
ST. ALBANS..........0.2

...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
MOUNT MANSFIELD..........12.0
CAMBRIDGE..........6.0
JEFFERSONVILLE..........5.0
EDEN..........2.7
STOWE..........2.5

...ORANGE COUNTY...
VERSHIRE..........4.0
WEST TOPSHAM..........4.0
CHELSEA 2 NW..........2.0
BRADFORD..........1.5
CORNITH..........1.4
CHELSEA..........1.0

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
JAY..........4.0
JAY PEAK..........4.0
NEWPORT..........1.0

...RUTLAND COUNTY...
RUTLAND..........0.5

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
WATERBURY..........4.0
MONTPELIER..........1.5
NORTHFIELD..........1.0
PLAINFIELD..........0.3

...WINDSOR COUNTY...
BETHEL..........Trace
ROCHESTER..........Trace

Significant Upslope Snow Event Winding Down

Local Update...
   Light Snow Showers Diminishing Along The Western Slopes Of The Green Mountains...

OVERVIEW
     At 8:15PM National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated snow showers rapidly diminishing. There is a small area of flurries to light snow showers left across portions of Lamoille, Washington, and Eastern Chittenden County. Snow shower and flurry activity should continue to diminish tonight. Any additional snow accumulation will be less than one inch. All warnings, and advisories I issued are no longer in effect. This was defiantly an unexpected upslope snow event. A list of snowfall totals will be issued below. Most were courtesy of the National Weather Service in Burlington, VT it will also be in a similar format as they issue, with a few that I personally added to the list.

SNOW TOTALS
NEW YORK

...ESSEX COUNTY...
NEWCOMB.........0.4

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
TUPPER LAKE...........Trace
MALONE...........Trace



VERMONT

...ADDISON COUNTY...
JERUSALEM..........16.0
STARKSBORO..........12.0
WEST LINCOLN..........10.0
SOUTH LINCOLN..........7.4
MIDDLEBURY..........3.0

...CALEDONIA COUNTY...
SAINT JOHNSBURY..........Trace

...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...
NORTH UNDERHILL..........10.9
JERICHO..........10.7
WESTFORD..........7.8
HANKSVILLE..........5.6
HINESBURG..........4.5
WEST BOLTON..........4.0
SOUTH BURLINGTON..........1.4

...ESSEX COUNTY...
ISLAND POND..........2.0

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
FAIRFAX..........5.0
BAKERSFIELD..........5.0
FLETCHER..........4.0
RICHFORD..........3.5
ENOSBURGH..........2.5
SHELDON..........1.0
EAST HIGHGATE..........0.5
SWANTON VILLAGE..........0.3

...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
MOUNT MANSFIELD..........12.0
CAMBRIDGE..........6.0
JEFFERSONVILLE..........4.0
EDEN..........2.7
STOWE..........2.5

...ORANGE COUNTY...
VERSHIRE..........4.0
WEST TOPSHAM..........4.0
BRADFORD..........1.5
CHELSEA..........1.0

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
JAY..........4.0

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
WATERBURY..........4.0
MONTPELIER..........1.5
NORTHFIELD..........1.0

Snow To Continue For Portions Of Northern And Central Vermont

Local Update...
   An Unexpected Upslope Enhanced Snow Event Has Unfolded Across The Northern And Central Green Mountains, Over 1 Foot Of Snow Has Been Reported In Some Spots...


     National Weather Service Doppler Radar continue to indicate light to occasionally moderate snow re-intensifying in Northern and Central Vermont, the heaviest snow is falling along the Western Slopes of The Green Mountains. Hardest hit areas are Eastern Chittenden County, and Northeastern Addison County where over a foot of snow has fallen. Another thing that is not helping this situation is the fact that winds are sustained at 10 - 20MPH with gusts up to 30MPH. With temps in the upper teens, and low 20's currently, wind chill values are in the single digits above zero, and since this snow is very light and fluffy, it is likely blowing around and drifting. So road conditions are likely very poor across the western slopes of the green mountains.
     Now as I said last night I posted my own alerts map, and I felt a winter storm warning should be issued, well I feel it should continue. The NWS has not issued any Warnings or Advisories. I feel that one needs to be issued, Warning criteria snow has been met significantly. A few snowfall reports that have been received include 16 inches of snow in Jerusalem, 12 inches of snow in Starksboro, 9.7 inches of snow in North Underhill, 6 inches in Cambridge, and 4 inches in Waterbury. I also feel a Winter Weather Advisory should be issued for Western Chittenden, and Addison counties where an addition 1 - 3 inches of snow is likely and the snow will likely be blowing around. Total snow accumulation for the Advisory area will range from 2 - 5 inches. The highest amounts will be away from lake Champlain. For the Warning area An additional 2 - 5 inches of snow is likely today, and this will bring average snowfall totals in this area to 8 - 12 inches with locally higher amounts.

Some Unexpected Snowfall For Northern and Central Vermont

Local Update...
   Some unexpected significant snow piling up in Northern and Central Vermont, Likely to continue into mid-late morning...


     At 5:05AM National Weather Service Doppler radar is indicating light to moderate snow, with an occasional heavy burst falling across portions of Northern and Central Vermont. The heaviest snow is falling in Eastern Chittenden County, Northeastern Addison County, Western Washington County, Western Lamoille County, and Southern Franklin County. At 3:44AM a National Weather Service employee reported a snow accumulation of 5.5 inches in Jericho, and another employee reported 4 inches in Essex Center. The highest snow totals appear to be across eastern Chittenden, and Northeastern Addison Counties. Doppler radar is indicating that as much as 3 - 5 inches of snow has fallen, near Jericho, and Starksboro. As we know though that at 3:44AM Jericho has received 5.5 inches, they have likely seen an additional 1 or 2 inches since then, and currently it appears snowfall rates right now in that area are a half to as much as one inch per hour. Snow is likely to continue into the mid morning hours before tapering off by late morning. This has caused me to issue my own map of what I feel should be issued for alerts, and For eastern Chittenden County, Eastern Addison, Lamoille, and Washington County, I feel a Winter Storm Warning should be issued. By the time the snow ends total accumulations will range from 5 - 10 inches, especially across Eastern Chittenden County. Check the below maps for further details. Stay tuned!

Significant Winter Storm Possible Monday Through Tuesday

Local Update...
   Significant Snowfall Possible, This Time Including Valley Locations...


     Currently, conditions are being monitored for a possible significant winter storm for Monday through Tuesday night. I do want to say, yes we have already had a significant snowstorm across the region in late October. But that storm did not affect valley locations with significant snow, in Vermont. Northern New York though including the St. Lawrence Valley received significant snow but Vermont Valleys have yet to receive significant snow. This will likely change though Monday night into Tuesday night.
     A low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes region on Sunday will slowly move/ transform its energy to a low pressure system that will form just South of Long Island. This low pressure system will then drift slowly Northward as it becomes cut off from the jet stream and is blocked by high pressure. The unfortunate thing is with these kind of storms, transferring energy to the coast, things can become questionable for thermal profiles. At this time though it does appear that a snowstorm will affect the region. The Champlain Valley of Vermont and east very well could see a period of sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain mix in for a time during the day on Monday and then again Tuesday. At this time Northern New York will likely see all snow. At this time snowfall accumulations across Vermont's Valleys are very independent on the thermal profiles. If the low pressure system off the coast intensifies a bit stronger, and faster than indicated then more snow is likely. At this time early indications are 5 - 9 inches of snow could fall across Northern New York and the Higher elevations of Vermont, with 2 - 5 inches of snow/sleet in the Champlain Valley, and the Connecticut river valley.

     Stay tuned for further updates as future model runs will help reveal the evolution of this storm, and its potential snowfall amounts.

Lake Effect Snow Piling Up In Vermont - It Does Happen!

Local Update...
   Lake Effect Snow Piling Up Across The Southern Champlain Valley In Vermont...


     Believe it or not, the rare occurrence of warning/ advisory criteria snowfall from Lake Champlain Effect snow does occur. National Weather Service Doppler radar is indicating a lake effect snow band extending south off the south end of Lake Champlain. Current radar echoes are indicating that a narrow band of moderate to occasionally heavy snow is falling across Southwestern Chittenden County, and Western Addison County. The heaviest snow is falling along and just west of Route 7 in the above mentioned counties. Over the past couple hours the snow band had weakened some, but now appears to be reorganizing, as radar is showing stronger echoes. Snow will likely continue moderate to occasionally heavy at times along and just west of Route 7 in Southwestern Chittenden, and Western Addison Counties. Snow totals should range from 3 - 6 inches on top of the 1 - 2 inches that was already reported on the ground there, so snow totals will range from 4 - 8 inches with very isolated higher amounts. The band will occasionally weaken and strengthen over the next several hours before it completely diminishes by tomorrow mid-morning.

Tornado Watch From North Carolina To The Capital District Of New York

Regional Update...
   Tornado Watches In Effect From As Far South As Holly Ridge, North Carolina, To As Far North As Hadley New York...


     Tornado watches in effect for a large area of the east coast. As stated in the headline Tornado watches are in effect from as far south as Holly Ridge, North Carolina, to as Far North as Hadley New York, which is several miles west of Glens Falls New York.
     A fairly strong low pressure system of 991mb currently moving North-Northeast towards Central New York is bringing strong instability along the east coast, due to the region being under the warm sector, which contains the warmer, unstable air, and strong jet dynamics. Strong shear winds will be capable of spinning up some small tornadoes in and near the entire watch area, as a strong cold front moves in from the west. The tornado threat will continue through early tonight. A squall line moving into the western portions of the tornado watches will continue moving east bringing strong winds, and heavy rains, as well as a few tornadoes due to the strong low level veering winds. Anyone living in the watch area should prepare for severe weather, and if encountering deteriorating weather conditions, make sure to take cover. Heed the advice of all warnings issued.

Below is a picture for the NOAA's National Weather Service Eastern Region. The areas shadded in yellow are the areas under the tornado watch...

Dont Let The Early Snowfall, and Cold Fool You: 2008 - 2009 Winter Forecast

Winter 2008 - 2009 Forecast
Forecast By: Joshua W. Ramsdell
1st Forecast
11/13/08

Overview:
For the 2008-2009 Winter Weather Forecast for All of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Northern New York. Isolated areas outside the above mentioned states will also be included in separate sections. The following areas include Central/ Coastal New Jersey, and Central and Southern Florida. Things will not be like last year. Although we have been having several early cold blasts, topped by an early significant snowstorm in late October. The entire winter will not follow as its early start may contradict. This forecast will cover the months of November, December, January, February, and March. A total of 3 forecasts will be issued over these months. This is the 1st of the 3 forecasts. An updated forecast will be issued at the end of December, and the end of February.

Vermont/ New Hampshire/ Northern New York:
Last years incredibly busy winter will be missed by some this year, although we will have our share of snow, the number of storms will be less than last year. The area will still encounter a couple large storms, but overall precipitation will be less then last year. The forecast compared to climatological history indicates this year precipitation will be average to slightly below average.
Last years temperatures were not that bad. It was cold, but temperatures were pretty much average for the area. This year will hold colder temperatures then last year, as the jet stream will likely dig farther south, than average. There will be several warm episodes though, but don't let them fool you. The overall temperatures though compared to climatological history indicates temperatures will likely be slightly below average to moderately below average.

Central/ Coastal New Jersey
Last year was fairly uneventful for the mid-Atlantic. A winter was pretty much non-existent. Much of the precipitation was in the form of rain. Very few snowflakes were seen, especially for Central/ Coastal New Jersey. This year will likely bring more snow. With the mean forecasted jet stream digging deeper south than average, the storms that do form will likely bring more snow than last year. Overall precipitation will be average for this area, however being so far south the average snowfall is low, this time your average precipitation will be more in the form of frozen precipitation than liquid precipitation. So all in all average precipitation, but more snow.
Last years temperatures were near average to slightly above average. As stated above the forecasted deeper digging jet stream will provide much colder air then last year. The forecast for this year compared to climatological history indicates temperatures will be below average.

Central/ Southern Florida
Last year was pretty much a normal winter for Florida, not a ton of precipitation, and by far no significant snow for Florida, which is normal. This year things will likely be much more interesting. As stated in all the above forecasts, a deeper digging jet stream will cause cooler air to be over the region, and cause more energy to be ejected into this region. So the forecast is calling for slightly above average to moderately above average precipitation compared to the Climatological history.
Last year, temperatures were fairly normal, a few times things cooled down significantly, but not all that bad. This year will prove to be much cooler. There will be several episodes of very cold air moving down into Central/ Southern Florida. In-fact the freezing mark very well could be witnessed into Central Florida. Overall temperatures for this area compared to climatological history will be slightly below average to moderately below average.


Stay tuned for an updated long term forecast at the end of December.


A Special thanks to NOAA, and NOAA's National Weather Service, where I was able to find information and conduct research.


Also a 2008 - 2009 Winter Season Snowfall map will be issued by the end of December.