2009 Superstorm Update

Local Update...
   Weather Models Raising Questions, And Causing Headaches...

Overview
     Weather models are now causing meteorologists, forecasters, and weather enthusiasts to have headaches, and throw there hands up in the air. What went from all medium, and long range weather models being in significantly good agreement for several days in a row, has now changed to a bunch of different possibilities. Overall, the one thing they have been fairly consitent on is a track further east. As far as strength they have all generally been weaker, but still significant. I am going to talk about each model, and what it shows. I will sum it all up with a summary in a few minutes.

NAM Model
     The NAM model which is a short to medium range model only going out 84 hours, is now beginning to get the storm in its sights. Although yes it has been picking up on its formation across the South Coast states the past several runs. It is now closing in enough on the storm to actually have in its sights what it may do for our area. So overall not much can be determined at this point from this model, but its general track brings it from its initial stages near Texas, across the Southeast States, and track North-Northeast literally on the edge of the coast. The storm at the models furthest forecast point of 84 hours, shows a disorganized area of low pressure off the New Jersey coast with a pressure of 1004mb. What happens after that, is unknown with the NAM until future model runs. One thing I would strongly suspect is that shortly after 84 hours the storm should begin strengthening, as the northern jet stream, will begin phasing with the southern stream energy. At this point the 500mb trough is in the neutral position, so as the phasing begins, it will allow it to start going in the negative direction.

     What this means in simple terms, as the weak southern stream system moves up the coast, it will begin to phase with the northern jet stream, and begin intensifing the storm, a bit later then the earlier long range models predicted. Resulting in a further track to the east, and a less intense storm.

     One thing with the NAM model, is as it gets towards the 84 hour mark, it becomes much less dependent. I am not saying its incorrect, but then again I am not saying its correct either. So at this point, I would prefer not to use this model past its 60 hour mark.


GFS Model
     The GFS model is a short to long range model, known for its long range of 384 hours. The model is also known as the most problematic model this year. This model seems to love to flip-flop the most. Although for a while, it was very consitent with this storm. Up until last night that is. The past 3 GFS model runs have shifted the storm significantly further east, and have significantly weekend the system, with no strengthening until near the eastern portions of Cape Cod or up into the Gulf of Maine. This model was one of the longer range models that indicated that this storm was going to be a storm to remember, tracking up the Appalachin mountains, with a peak intensity into the 964-968mb range. As stated above the most recent GFS model run is forecasting the storm to move out to sea, and strenthening much later then first thought, resulting in some light snow, and maybe some breezy conditions at best, the peak intensity the GFS is now forecasting is 980mb while just to the Northeast of downeast Maine.

     In simple terms, this model is indicating, a much weaker storm, moving further out to sea, resulting in significantly less precipitation, and wind.


ECMWF & UKMET Models
     These two models are mianly medium/ long range models. The two models had been predicting a very significant storm, very similar to the GFS original track, of up the Appalachin mountains, with a peak intensity of 965-975mb. These two models have trended further east, and weaker. With not much impact on the area. The UKMET indicates the storm moving so far east, not even significant clouds would effect coastal areas of New England from this. Both models now have this storm at peak intensity in the 996-1000mb range, well off the east coast.

     In simple terms, if these models were correct then either no storm, or just light snow would effect the area. The light snow being confined to far eastern Vermont.


DGEX Model
     This model is a long range model, and is actually a somewhat newer model. This model has been one of the more consitent for this storm so far, although this model too has shifted the storm further to the east, and less intense, but still brings significant precipitation to the area. In the previous post you can see an image of this model, at its prediction of the storms peak intensity of 959mb. The peak intensity from the most recent run of the DGEX model is now 975mb (much more believable) across downeast Maine.

     In simple terms, the DGEX model is most consitent with forecasting this storm so far. If this model held true, the storm would be weaker then this model first predicted, and would be farther east, but the potential for a significant winter storm exists.


Canadian & JMA Models
     These two models are generally medium range models, and have also been consitent. The JMA indicates the storm still to track up the Coast, and up the Connecticut river Valley of Vermont. The Canadian model has shifted east, but ends up over Central Maine. The peak intensity of the storm from these two models are in the 976-984mb range.

     In simple terms, if these models are correct, then a Significant winter storm remains possible for our region, with the potential for Blizzard or near blizzard conditions for portions of our area.


Comparison To The 1993 Superstorm
     This storm will not be like the 1993 Superstorm. That storm was literally a "Storm of the Century". It effected such a large area at one time, with signficant amounts of record breaking precipitation, wind, cold, and severe weather that caused such large amounts of damage. A Winter Storm like that we may never see again in our lifetime. With that said, from every post here on out, this upcoming storm will never be refered to as a Superstorm again, unless things change drastically. I apologize for naming this a Superstorm, but models did show the potential of a Superstorm.


Comparison To The 2007 Valentines Day Nor'easter
     The Valentines Day Nor'easter was a very significant Winter Storm. That storm too was one of rare occasion, but could definatly be seen again a couple more times in our lifetime. At this point models indicate that any potential snow totals will be no where near, that of the V-day storm. But then again models cant predict any mesoscale features this far out either. The current storm, if models come back in agreement on a track similar to that of the JMA, or Canadian, very well could match the V-day Storm, or be close to matching it.


Summary/ Forecast
     The one thing that can be guranteed is the fact there will be a storm. But the big question is, where it will track, and who it will effect? I will now dangerously put out my first official text forecast. Just to remind you, the post yesterday was the potential situation, based strictly off what the models had been showing. For this first official forecast, it has taken quite a bit of studying of models, and past research to try and figure out what is going to occur. Also of additional note, as stated above, this storm will no longer be refered to as the 2009 Superstorm, due to the fact, that no storm should be called a Superstorm unless its just that, a Superstorm. If it occurs it will likely be refered to as the "2009 Ground Hog Day Storm" whether or not it falls on the day of or the day of after Ground Hog Day.

     What we will likely see is a weak wave of low pressure form near Texas, and track east-northeast into the Southeast United States. Then the storm will begin moving Northeast up the coast, and begin to interact with stronger northern jet stream energy. The low pressure center should be along or just east of the coast, and slowly intensify until up near the NJ coast, in which it will begin to intensify more rapidly, and continue moving Northeast and into Central Maine. The storm will be continuing to intensify while over Maine. But the strongest pressure while still over the United States (Maine) will likely be in the 980-985 range. This track and strength will result in Snow for Monday Night and Tuesday. With significant snow accumulations possible, especially across eastern Vermont. Wind will likely be pretty strong, resulting in near Blizzard conditions for portions of the area.

     How I came to my conclusion for the track is based on the fact, that models are split, some show a track way out to sea, some show along the coast. What I did to base my descision was, I went with the track off the models that showed a more westerly track, and the fact that all the storms this year have tended to track further west. All in all, we will have to wait and see. Models will definatly change more between now and then, lets just hope some of the better known models, like the ECMWF, NAM, and GFS come into agreement on a storm tracking very close to the coast. Stay tuned.

(Sorry for any spelling errors, spell check isnt working at this time) =]]

The 2009 Super Storm?

Local Update...
   Major East Coast Winter Storm Possible For Monday Through Wednesday...


DISCUSSION
     Before I get into this, I want everyone to know, I am not hyping this storm, I am basing this strictly off what the models are currently showing, and have been that past day or so. I want to urge to everyone that, there is a lot of time between now and the storm and things could change drastically between now and then. But due to the fact models have been consitent on the strength of the storm, I feel this blog post, needs to be posted.

     A very interesting situation is unfolding for the Monday to Wednesday time frame. All long range models have been showing the possibility of a major east coast storm system. With all models indicating a system of 980mb or stronger. The recent 18z dgex model shows a minimum pressure down to 959mb. That is the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane. That would also make it slightly stronger then the 1993 Super Storm. I highly doubt the storm will reach the forecasted strength that the dgex is forecasting though. I want to urge, that although this storm looks to be similar, it does not appear that it will rival the 1993 Superstorm. The '93 Superstorm was a storm that will not happen again for many more years to come. One significant and historical system that this storm has the potential to be significantly greater then, is the 2007 Valentines Day Nor'easter.

     Now with all that said your probably wondering, how much snow I might think will fall? Well this will be tricky, as there will be significant warm air aloft. Rain does appear likely for the entire State of Vermont at this time, but the rain will be moderate to heavy for many hours, before changing to wind whipped snow towards the end of the storm. The area where Blizzard conditions are most likely will be over the Northern Adirondack mountains, and the St. Lawrence Valley. That is just for the JRWeather coverage area. Blizzard conditions may be witnessed as far south as Tennessee, with accumulating snow as far south as Northern Louisiana. The track of the storm is very dependent on how much snow will fall across our region. At this time though if models were correct this would mean 12+ inches of snow for much of Northern New York. But remember, this is if the current model indications were to occur. There will likely be changes, but one thing that is almost for sure is that a very significant storm will form.

     Overall if this storm materializes, then we will see a historic storm system. One to be remember for some time. Please stay tuned for further updates, as future models runs hold the keys to what will happen. If this storm is able to track along the actual coast, then significant snow would be likely for almost the entire JRWeather coverage area. I want to urge once again though, that the details I gave you here are on what the current models show, things will likely change. Make sure to stay tuned for further updates!

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE!!

Below is an image of the most recent 18Z DGEX model, forecasting a peak intensity of 959.1mb or 28.32in across the Vermont, Massachusettes border...

Snow To Last A Bit Longer Across Portions Of Vermont; Winter Storm Warnings Remain In Effect Until 3AM Now

Local Update...
   JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect Until 3AM Thursday...


JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Continues The Winter Storm Warning for Orleans, Essex, Lamoille, Washington, Orange, Caledonia, Eastern Franklin, and Eastern Chittenden Counties In Vermont Until 3AM Thursday.

     JRWeather has extended the Winter Storm Warning for a few more hours across the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains, and portions of Central, and Northeastern Vermont. The Winter Storm Warning is no longer in effect for the Champlain Valley, Northern New York, or Southern Vermont.

     An area of convergence, and upslope enhanced snow continues across the Western slopes of the Green Mountains in Eastern Franklin, and Eastern Chittenden Counties, radar indicates that some of this could be falling moderately. This area of snow should continue to move east. An additional 1-3 inches of snow with locally higher amounts will fall across the Warning area by 3AM. The highest additional accumulations will likely be across Lamoille, Washington, Eastern Franklin, and Eastern Chittenden Counties. Total snow accumulations in the Warning area will range from 10-14 inches, with locally higher amounts of up to 18 inches possible, especially along the spine of the Green Mountains in Northern Vermont.

     Of additional concern is the fact that winds have increased into the 10-15MPH range with gusts in the 25-30MPH range. Sustained wind speeds should remain where there are but isolated gusts of up to 40MPH is possible, especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, and higher elevations. This will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow, resulting in visibilities to a quarter mile or perhaps less at times. The winds should diminish by mid-morning.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for heavy amounts of snow. Travel will continue to be hazardous into the early morning hours, as roads are snow packed, and snow covered. Travel should become better by the morning commute Thursday, although roads will still be very slick, so use caution while driving.


DISCUSSION
     Well a little bit of a surprise you could say. Although with a Northwest wind and a departing storm, I guess I should have seen it coming. Snow looks to last a bit longer along the Western Slopes of the Green Mountain of Northern Vermont, and all across much of Northeastern Vermont. Northwest winds have increased aiding in a moist flow into the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains, this has resulted in continued snow, even moderate at times. This should diminish though as moisture thins out. Snow should have come to an end by 3AM. The most concentrated area of snow is across Lamoille, Washington, Eastern Franklin, and Eastern Chittenden Counties. Snow will continue to move east across Northeastern Vermont, with additional totals of 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts especially along the Western Slopes of the Northern Green Mountains. Storm totals across the Western Slopes look to range from 10-14 inches. I raised the bottom number a tad, but they still fit in the 8-14 which is widespread for the entire region, so the maps wont show an area of 10-14 inches. I also wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated accumulations of up around 18 inches. But with big storms like this, that's not really uncommon. Winds have also increased area wide resulting in some blowing and drifting snow. So if you have to travel anytime between now, and mid-morning use extreme caution, as roads will be snow covered, and visibilities will be reduced in areas of blowing, and drifting snow. Updated maps below...


CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE!

Winter Storm Winding Down; Warning Remains In Effect For Portions Of The Area

Local Update...
   Snow Winding Down; JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect Until 12AM Thursday For Portions Of Vermont & New York...


JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Continues The Winter Storm Warning for Grand Isle, Franklin, Orleans, Essex, Chittenden, Lamoille, Caledonia, Addison, Washington, Orange, Windsor, and Eastern Rutland Counties in Vermont and Eastern Clinton County In New York Until 12AM Thursday.

     Snow will continue to lighten up across the region, and become more showery in nature, before diminishing shortly after midnight. Across the western slopes of the Green Mountains, the light snow showers may continue into mid Thursday morning. An additional 1-3 inches of snow with locally higher amounts will fall across the Warning area by 12AM. Total snow accumulations in the Warning area will range from 8-14 inches, with locally higher amounts along the spine of the Green Mountains in Vermont by 12AM Thursday.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for heavy amounts of snow. Travel will continue to be hazardous into the early morning hours, as roads are snow packed, and snow covered. Travel should become increasingly better by the morning commute Thursday, although roads will still be slick, so use caution while driving.


DISCUSSION
     Snow is winding down late this evening. I have decided to cancel some of the Warning, after the National Weather Service did. Additional Snow accumulations across Northern New York, and Southern Vermont should be a Dusting-2 inches, nothing very significant. Across Extreme Northeastern New York, and Northern, and Central Vermont, an additional 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts is likely. With the higher amounts across Northern areas, and the lower amounts across Southern Areas. Some convergence is ongoing over the Champlain Valley, and Western Slopes. You can see this on radar as light moisture moves towards the Champlain valley and erupts into widespread light to occasionally moderate snow while over the valley. There is currently one of these deformation/ convergence bands over the Northern, and Central Champlain Valley, and it appears that one or two more of these bands will occur as there is a line of Moisture moving East from the Northern Adirondack Mountains, and another area of moisture moving east from St. Lawrence County, NY. Each round should bring about a half to one inch of snow. Once the moisture hits the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains, it will wring the moisture out pretty good. This is where some isolated higher amounts are possible. Overall total snow accumulations should be 8-14 inches with locally higher amounts along the spine of the Green Mountains. I have had to cut back snow totals for eastern Vermont as mesoscale banding did not occur quite as expected. Still definitely a significant snowfall anyway you cut it. Updated maps below. Stay tuned for any further updates!


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Winter Storm Update; Warnings Remain In Effect

Local Update...
   JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect Until 12AM Thursday...


JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Continues The Winter Storm Warning for All Of Vermont and Northern New York Until 12AM Thursday.

     Snow will continue into this evening, but snowfall rates should begin to diminish. There is still a couple hours left for the potential of 1 inch per hour snowfall rates. Primarily across eastern Vermont. Snow will pretty much come to an end by Midnight. Total snow accumulations in the Warning area will range from 8-14 inches across much of the area, with 14-18 inches across Eastern Vermont by 12AM Thursday.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for heavy amounts of snow. Travel will continue to be hazardous. If you MUST travel, use extreme caution. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Storm is going for the most part as planned. Had to cut back accumulations a tad, due to the snow taking a little while longer then expected to saturate the atmosphere this morning, and due to a dry slot that moved in, but has recently filled back in with moisture. Total accumulations are expected to be 8-14 inches with 14-18 inches across the Western slopes of the Green mountains, and eastern Vermont. Sleet, and even freezing rain has mixed in across Southern Vermont. The freezing rain seems to be primarily confined to Bennington County, with sleet across Rutland, Windsor, and Windham Counties. Snowfall totals thus far though have ranged from 5-8 inches, with ofcourse some locally higher, and lower amounts across the region. An additional 3-6 inches of snow is likely with locally higher amounts, in any mesoscale bands. If you absolutely have to travel tonight, then make sure to use extreme caution as roads are extremely slick. Numerous accidents have been reported across Vermont, and Northern New York. Updated maps below, stay tuned for any further updated!


CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE!

Major Winter Storm Has Begun; JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect

Local Update...
   JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect From Until 12AM Thursday...


JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Continues The Winter Storm Warning for All Of Vermont and Northern New York Until 12AM Thursday.

     A low pressure system over West Virginia, will continue to track northeast, and across extreme Southern New England Wednesday afternoon, then up into the Canadian Maritimes by Thursday afternoon.

     Light snow has overspread pretty much the entire region. The snow will become heavy at times this afternoon. Snowfall rates may reach 1-2 inches per hour for a time during the afternoon. Snow will start to tapper off this evening, and have pretty much come to an end by Midnight. Total snow accumulations in the Warning area will range from 10-16 inches across much of the area, with 16-24 inches across Eastern Vermont by 12AM Thursday.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for heavy amounts of snow. Travel will become hazardous to nearly impossible at times today. Only travel in an emergency! If you MUST travel, use extreme caution. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Well as stated if any changes needed to be made for snow totals, it would be this morning. The totals snow accumulation has gone up once again, and JRWeather is now forecasting 10-16 inches of snow across much of the region with 16-24 inches across eastern Vermont. Snow is going to come down very heavy this afternoon, and into early evening. Updated maps, and a new video is below. Stay tuned!


JRWEATHER SPECIAL REPORT



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Snow On Its Way; JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect

Local Update...
   JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect Until 12AM Thursday...


JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Continues The Winter Storm Warning for All Of Vermont and Northern New York Until 12AM Thursday.

     A low pressure system will move from Tennessee, and track northeast, and across extreme Southern New England Wednesday afternoon, then up into the Canadian Maritimes by Thursday afternoon.

     Snow will overspread the entire region by 7AM, and become heavy at times in the afternoon. Snowfall rates may reach 1-2 inches per hour for a time during the afternoon. Snow will start to tapper off this evening, and have pretty much come to an end by Midnight. Total snow accumulations in the Warning area will range from 8-14 inches with locally higher amounts along the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains by 12AM Thursday.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for heavy amounts of snow. Travel will become hazardous Wednesday. If you MUST travel, use extreme caution. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Snow is attempting to push into Southern Vermont and Central New York right now, but it having a hard time, as the atmosphere is rather dry. Snow should overspread the entire region by 8AM. Northern New York, and Southern Vermont could see snow starting as early as 2 or 3AM. Snow should become heavy during the day Wednesday. A total of 8-14 inches is likely by the time the storm ends by 12AM Thursday. The snow output models are interesting. They are all indicating a minimum of around 8 inches. One of the more trusted snow output models the WRF, which has an exceptionally good background for forecasting snow for Vermont, and Northern New York is showing totals in the 10-15 inch range, with 15-20 inches for the Western Slopes of the Green mountains, in Vermont, and the Western Slopes of the Northern Adirondack Mountains in New York. I am not saying this is going to happen, but this model as I said, does have a very good history of being quite accurate. Its Just something to keep in the back of your mind. We will have to see how things go, before any additional changes to snow totals are made. If any will be made it will be later this morning, whether its to lower them a bit or to raise them a bit. We will have to wait and see. Updated maps have been issued below, as well as an updated video!!!


JRWEATHER SPECIAL REPORT



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Get Ready For Some Snow; JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect

Local Update...
   JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect From 12AM Wednesday Until 12AM Thursday...


JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Storm Warning for All Of Vermont and Northern New York From 12AM Wednesday Until 12AM Thursday.

     A low pressure system will move from the Mississippi Valley area, and track northeast, and across extreme Southern New England Wednesday afternoon, then up into the Canadian Maritimes by Thursday afternoon.

     Snow will overspread the region by Wednesday morning, and become heavy at times in the afternoon. Snowfall rates may reach 1 inch per hour for a time Wednesday. Snow will start to tapper off, and have pretty much come to an end by Midnight. Total snow accumulations in the Warning area look to range from 6-10 inches with locally higher amounts along the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. More data is coming in, and snowfall totals may have to be increased even more later this evening.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for heavy amounts of snow. Travel will become hazardous Wednesday. If you MUST travel, use extreme caution. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Things looking on track for a significant snowstorm on Wednesday. The overall storm is extremely impressive. Winter Storm Warnings extend from the United States/ Mexican border in Texas, all the way to the United States/ Canadian border in Maine. For our area it should be all or mainly snow. Extreme southern Vermont may see some sleet mix in for a brief time Wednesday afternoon.
     New model data coming in, is suggesting that I will likely need to increase my snow amounts. I will await the new run of the GFS model before I make any changes. The National Weather Service has increased snow totals to 8-14 inches now. That's up from 6-12 earlier this morning. They have also stepped up the Winter Weather Advisory to a Warning across the St. Lawrence Valley for 6-10 inches of snow. That's increased from the 4-6 inches forecasted this morning. Right now though I am holding with 6-10 inches for the entire region, with higher amounts along the western slopes. If the GFS shows what the NAM model has, then I will likely up amounts to the 8-14 inch range as well. Stay tuned!

I have updated the video. Unfortunately right after I had published it, new winter alerts were issued for the area. So some of what you see or hear may be slightly different from this post. The video is still processing from the upload to YouTube, so the video may be unavailable for up to 30 minutes or so.


JRWEATHER SPECIAL REPORT



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Significant Storm To Impact The Region; JRWeather Winter Storm Warning & Winter Storm Watch In Effect

Local Update...
   JRWeather Winter Storm Warning & Winter Storm Watch In Effect From 12AM Wednesday Until 12AM Thursday...


JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Caledonia, Washington, Addison, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, Windham, and Eastern Chittenden Counties In Vermont, and Essex County In New York From 12AM Wednesday Until 12AM Thursday.

     A low pressure system will form Tuesday across the Mississippi Valley area, and track northeast, and into the Mid-Atlantic States by Wednesday afternoon, then up into the Canadian Maritimes by Thursday afternoon.

     Snow will overspread the region Wednesday, and become heavy at times in the afternoon. Snowfall rates may reach 1 inch per hour for a time Wednesday. Snow will start to tapper off, and have pretty much come to an end by Midnight. Total snow accumulations in the Warning area look to range from 5-9 inches with locally higher amounts along the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for moderate to heavy amounts of snow. Travel will become hazardous Wednesday. If you MUST travel, use extreme caution. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WINTER STORM WATCH
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Grand Isle, Franklin, Orleans, Essex, Lamoille, and Western Chittenden County in Vermont, and St. Lawrence, Franklin, and Clinton Counties in Northern New York From 12AM Wednesday Until 12AM Thursday.

     A low pressure system will form Tuesday across the Mississippi Valley area, and track northeast, and into the Mid-Atlantic States by Wednesday afternoon, then up into the Canadian Maritimes by Thursday afternoon.

     Snow should develop Wednesday, and may become heavy at times. Total snow accumulations by 12AM Thursday have the potential to range from 5-9 inches across the Watch area, with the highest amounts across the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. There is still some question as to how much snow will fall across the far Northern Counties of Vermont, and New York, thus the Watch will remain in effect.

     A Winter storm watch is issued when there is a strong potential for severe winter weather, but not yet imminent. In this case the Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the potential of significant amounts of snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Everything appears to be on track for another Winter Storm for our region. I have gone ahead and issued a Winter Storm Warning for the areas previously under a Winter Storm Watch, and put all Counties North of the Warning into a Winter Storm Watch. Although my forecast shows 5-9 inches across the entire region, with higher amounts along the Western slopes of the Green Mountains, I am not quite as confident of the high amounts across the far Northern Counties of Vermont, and New York quite yet, thus a Winter Storm Watch is in effect. Anyway you put it, everyone will likely see some snow.
     This system is actually rather impressive. Technically its two systems with a weak wave of low pressure currently bringing a round of Severe Winter Weather to the mid section of the Country, and another storm (the one that's going to bring us the snow) will form literally on the first storms heals, and track across the same areas the first one has, in the mid section of the Country. That's why I am going to stick with calling it one storm. The reason why its so impressive, is the fact that Winter Storm Alerts go from the US/ Mexican border in Texas, northeast, all the way to the US/ Canadian border in Maine!!! Although this wont be a historical storm for us here in New England, this storm will likely be remember for a very long time to come, across the mid section of the Country, as up to 2 inches of ice is expected from freezing rain. If these amounts are witnessed it will be catastrophic for the people down there.
     An additional reason as to why this is rather impressive besides the forecasted ice accumulations, and its far reaching effects across the Country, but the fact that this storm (according to models a few days ago) was never really supposed to happen. It was supposed to remain a weak wave of low pressure that was forecast to move of the Southeast coast, bringing some rain. However as days have passed, the models have continued to push the precipitation further and further north. In fact pressure wise, the storm was supposed to be rather weak, now models are starting to say it could strengthen to around 990mb while off the Southern New England Coast. Could this be a new trend in the models up until the storm hits? Who knows, but it definitely requires watching. Maps have been updated, and I have also decided to issue a little weather video. I have not done one for a while, so I threw one together quickly. Sorry for the volume issues with it. Hopefully you enjoy!!!!


JRWEATHER SPECIAL REPORT



CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE!
Maps are from earlier, hence the times being different from the post time. There was no need to update them prior to this post...

Signficant Snowfall Possible For Wednesday To Thursday; JRWeather Winter Storm Watch In Effect

Local Update...
   JRWeather Winter Storm Watch In Effect From 3AM Wednesday Until 12AM Thursday...

JRWeather WINTER STORM WATCH
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Caledonia, Washington, Addison, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, Windham, and Eastern Chittenden Counties In Vermont, and Essex County In New York From 3AM Wednesday Until 12AM Thursday.

     A low pressure system is expected to form over the South Central United States, and move Northeast. The storm system should be east of Cape Cod by Thursday afternoon.

     Light flurries/ snow showers should develop around midnight, and steadier snow should move into the region for very early Wednesday Morning and continue moderate to heavy at times into Wednesday evening, before tapering off by Very early Thursday Morning. Total snow accumulations by very early Thursday morning at this time look to range from 5-9 inches across the Watch area, with the highest amounts across Southern Vermont. A slight shift in the track or strength could result in a shift of the heaviest snow further to the north or south.

     A Winter storm watch is issued when there is a strong potential for severe winter weather, but not imminent. In this case the Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the potential of significant amounts of snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     A low pressure system is expected to develop over the South-Central United states and track east-northeast or northeast, in a rather zonal jet stream flow. The jet stream will become less zonal, and attempt to build a trough as this low is progressing east, resulting in the storm shifting in a more northeasterly direction. At this point the storm is expected to track into the mid-Atlantic states, and off the coast, and to the east of Cape Cod by Thursday. As we have seen with these west to east moving storms, they trend to move further north. This has been the case with past several model runs. Several days ago, this storm was forcasted to be very minor and move off the Southeastern coast of the United States as nothing more then some light to moderate rain, But that's obviously changed. Things still remain to be seen though. Confidence though has increased enough for me to issue a Winter Storm Watch for Central, and Southern Vermont, as well as Essex County New York. At this time the National Weather Service has issued no official alerts for this system, but that will likely change by later today. Total accumulations at this point look to range from 5-9 inches across the Watch area. If things remain rather consistent then an Advisory will also likely be needed for the areas, north of the Winter Storm Watch, for snow totals of 3-5 inches. Just of interesting note, the NAM snow model indicated up to 5-8 inches for almost the entire region, with 6-12 across Southern Vermont, and the GFS snow model indicated 6-10 Across the Northern Areas with 10-15 inches across Central and Southern Vermont. I guarantee that's way overdone. But still its something nice to imagine. Stay tuned for more updates...


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Snow Squalls Moving Across Northern New York

Local Update...
   Heavy Snow For The Region Overnight...

     National Weather Service Doppler radar has indicated a line of rain snow mix, rapidly changing to heavy snow across Northeastern New York. This area of snow will moves east-southeast, and into Northwestern between 11:30PM and 12:30AM. Precipitation may briefly start as plain rain across the Champlain Valley, as temperatures are well above freezing. Any rain will rapidly change to a brief period of heavy snow. Visibilities will likely fall to under a quarter mile for up to 30 Minutes. Total snow accumulations will be a Dusting - 2 inches. This line of heavy snow will move into the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains between 12:30AM and 2AM, and into Eastern Vermont between 2AM and 4AM. Accumulations in these area will also be in the Dusting - 2 inch range, with locally higher amounts along the western slopes of the green mountains. If your out traveling prepare for rapidly changing road conditions. Temperatures will be falling rapidly behind this snow, which is associated with an arctic front. Temperatures will begin to plummet after the snow moves through, flash freezing will likely occur, making the roads extremely slick. Of additional concern is brief wind gusts of up to 40MPH will follow the precipitation, making the snow blow around, and help aid in dropping temperatures rapidly. Stay tuned for any further updates.

KVTSWANT4 Weather Station Back In Operation

     For my viewers, KVTSWANT4, My Swanton Village Weather station is back in operation. For those who view graphs on Wunderground from my Weather Station, note that there may be some erroneous graph data, and temperature data. I have been working to get the erroneous data out. The cause was from moving the Station. It is back in full operation now. Thanks!

KVTSWANT4 Weather Station Down

     As of 3:00PM 1/20/09, Just a quick note, to those who view my weather station live online. KVTSWANT4 Will be down for several hours. Some changes are being made to location of Weather Station, Height, and surrounding objects. Also some thermal protection is being installed to help cut erroneous high temperatures. A note will be issued when KVTSWANT4 is back in operation. Thanks.

Snow Continues Across Eastern Vermont; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory Remains In Effect

Local Update...
   A Little Bit More Snow Expected For Eastern Vermont; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory Continues Until 8PM Tonight...


JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather Continues The Winter Weather Advisory For Essex, Caledonia, Orange, Windsor, and Windham Counties In Eastern Vermont Until Until 10PM Tonight.

     Light to moderate snow has resulted in widespread 2-4 inch amounts across eastern Vermont with locally higher amounts. Light snow will continue into the evening before tapering off by tonight. An additional 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts is possible by tonight. This will result in storm totals of 3-6 inches across eastern Vermont. Isolated amounts of 7-9 inches can be expected in places such as Groton, and Strafford Vermont.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when significant but not severe winter weather is imminent or occurring. In this case the the Winter Weather Advisory is for moderate accumulations of snow. Travel will remain hazardous through this evening, and should improve greatly overnight into Monday morning. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     Everything appears to be going pretty much as planned, other then a quicker ending time to the precipitation. Intensity, and overall coverage of snow is lessening right now, and will have pretty much ended by 8PM tonight. Total snow accumulations by 8PM tonight will range from 3-6 inches in the remaining Advisory area. For people outside of the Advisory area, and Windsor, and Windham Counties, light snow showers or flurries will continue through 10PM resulting in up to an inch at best. This will bring totals of 2-4 inches across much of the region, with only a Dusting to 2 inches for the Champlain, and Northern St. Lawrence Valleys. I have ended the Winter Weather Advisory for Windsor, and Windham Counties as additional snowfall here will be very minimal. They did however pick up accumulations of 3-5 inches.


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Accumulating Snow For Eastern Vermont; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect

Local Update...
   Moderate Snow Accumulations Expected Across Eastern Vermont Through Sunday; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect From 1AM Sunday Morning Until 1AM Monday Morning...


JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather Has Issued A Winter Weather Advisory For Essex, Caledonia, Orange, Windsor, and Windham Counties In Eastern Vermont From 1AM Sunday Morning, Until 1AM Monday Morning.

     A clipper system dropping out of Canada and Into the Great Lakes this evening will slow down, and take on a more easterly track. As this storm tracks east, a weak secondary area of low pressure will form off the Southern New England Coast, helping advect some Atlantic moisture into Eastern Vermont. The low will continue to trek northeast, and up into the Canadian Maritimes by Monday Morning.

     Light snow will develop overnight tonight and become heavier at times Late Sunday Morning and early afternoon. The snow will taper off overnight Sunday. Total snow accumulation by very early Monday Morning will range from 4-6 inches in the Advisory area, with locally higher amounts.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when significant but not severe winter weather is imminent or occurring. In this case the the Winter Weather Advisory is for moderate accumulations of snow. Travel will become hazardous by early Sunday Morning, and continue to be hazardous throughout the day Sunday. Conditions should improve by Mid Monday Morning. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     A clipper system moving out of Canada will result in the formation of a weak Coastal low, and resultant light snow across much of the region. This wont be a very impressive storm. Just some advisory snow accumulations across eastern Vermont, and near Advisory accumulations for the rest of the area.
     There is some question as to how much moisture the clipper will be able to hold, prior to the secondary low development. Question also exists as to where, and how fast the coastal low will develop. At this point though the heaviest snow appears to fall across eastern Vermont. If more moisture can get into the clipper, or the coastal low develops sooner, stronger, and/ or closer to the coast, then areas further west could pick up some advisory criteria snow amounts.
     The other big factor on how much snow will fall, is the snow to liquid ratio. The best way to explain this is, when we have a snowstorm, its still liquid moisture, the water droplets just freeze, and become snowflakes. So a 10:1 snow ratio would mean 10 inches of snow to 1 inch of liquid. If we received .60" of water equivalent, in a 10:1 ratio storm, this would be how much snow? 6 Inches.
     Now in the fall, and spring, snowstorms are usually a 10:1 ratio. But as we get into the colder months, they tend to be greater ratios, because its much colder, and the snow tends to be drier, and fluffier. So since we are in January, the climatological snow ratios are around 15:1, although its not uncommon to receive up to a 30:1 ratio during January and February, especially with the colder, drier clipper systems. So with all this said, models indicate a .25" to .50" of liquid across New Hampshire edging into Eastern Vermont. Snow ratios for this storm will be around 20:1 This would result in 5-10 inches of snow. But you have to think about the way these systems work, they tend to be a bit drier then what models depict. Although this one will be tricky, depending on when the link to Atlantic moisture occurs. So with that said I down played the liquid amounts to around .20" to .30" across eastern Vermont, resulting in 4-6 inches of snow. Across the remainder of Vermont and northern New York generally liquid amounts will range from .10" to .20", resulting in 2-4 inches of snow. If just the slightest deviation in how much moisture will fall, will result in significant changes to the snowcast. Just think if the Champlain Valley receives and additional .10" of liquid. Just a .10"! That would push them to 4-6 inch snow totals, which is advisory level. So we will keep a close eye on this storm system. Stay tuned for further updates. Updated maps below...


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Dangerously Cold Wind Chills Across The Entire Region!

Local Update...
   Temperatures Of 30F To 40F Below Zero In Northeastern Vermont! JRWeather Wind Chill Warning & Wind Chill Advisory In Effect Until 12PM Today...


JRWeather WIND CHILL WARNING
     JRWeather Has Issued A Wind Chill Warning for Orleans, Essex, Caledonia, Lamoille, Washington, Eastern Franklin, and Eastern Chittenden Counties In Vermont Until 12PM Today.

     A strong arctic air mass in place has allowed temperatures to drop in the 20F to 30F below zero range across the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. A light wind of 5MPH is occurring, but that 5MPH of wind, combined with temperatures in the 20F to 30F below zero range, will put wind chill values into the 35F to 45F below zero range. Wind chills of this magnitude are extremely dangerous.

     Temperatures should rise just enough to allow the Wind Chill Warning to expire at noon today, although winds chills will still be very cold, in the 10F to 20F below zero range. Wind chills of 35F to 45F below zero, are extremely dangerous, frostbite and hypothermia can occur in about 10 minutes. It is strongly recommended, to limit exposure to the outdoors until noontime today. Remember pets are also vulnerable to the elements too. If possible allow them indoors, if not possible make sure they are in a warmer area. If you do go outside, make sure to cover all exposed skin, and dress in layers. Make sure to wear a hat, and mittens as well. A Wind Chill Warning is issued for extremely dangerous wind chills of 30F below zero, or colder. Stay tuned.


JRWeather WIND CHILL ADVISORY
     JRWeather Has Issued A Wind Chill Advisory for Grand Isle, Addison, Rutland, Orange, Windsor, Windham, Bennington, Western Franklin, and Western Chittenden Counties In Vermont And All Of Northern New York Until 12PM Today.

     A strong arctic air mass in place has allowed temperatures to drop in the 10F to 20F below zero range across much of the area. A light wind of 5MPH is occurring, but that 5MPH of wind, combined with temperatures in the 10F to 20F below zero range, will put wind chill values into the 20F to 30F below zero range, with isolated colder wind chills in areas near or colder then 20F below zero. These type of wind chills are dangerous.

     Temperatures should rise enough to allow the Wind Chill Advisory to expire at noontime today, although winds chills will still be very cold, in the 0 to 10F below zero range. Once again make sure to dress warmly in layers, and wear a heavy duty winter coat, along with a good pair of gloves, and a hat. If you do not do this and are outside, frostbite can occur on exposed skin in about 30 minutes, and hypothermia can set in with much less time. A Wind Chill Advisory is issued for wind chills in the 15 below to 30 below zero range. Stay tuned.


DISCUSSION
     It is absolutely frigid out there right now. Across Northern and Central Vermont, and Northern New York. Temperatures are ranging from 15F to 30F below zero. Across Southern Vermont Temperatures are ranging from 5F to 15F below zero. Right at this very moment in Island Pond, Vermont, located in the Northeast Kingdom, the temperature reading is 40F below zero!! Compared to the rest of the temperatures, this sounds a tad skeptical right? Not at all, this is a very trusty station, located at the John H. Boylan state airport, and this specific area is known for temperatures falling several degrees below surrounding towns even. This area could still see another 5 to 10 degree drop before it finally starts warming up!!! Fortunately though mind numbing temperature readings such as 40F below zero, wont be a common occurrence for the rest of the early morning hours. Although widespread 30F below zero readings will be likely across Northeastern Vermont.
     More locally the temperatures here in the Champlain Valley are not to shabby either. Temps are generally running at 12F to 18F Below Zero with isolated areas in the Valley down to 25F below Zero. So with these temperatures, and with the slightest wind of only 5MPH, this will cause dangerously cold wind chills. I have issued a Wind Chill Advisory for the entire region, except for North-Central, and Northeast Vermont where a Wind Chill Warning is in effect.
     Just to have a little fun with the numbers, the current temperature at the Island Pond airport of 40F below zero, combined with a 5MPH wind, results in a Wind Chill of 57 below zero!!!!! Now that's some truly arctic air right there. Even in the Champlain Valley, with one of the Warmer temps of 15 Below Zero in Burlington, that combined with a wind of only 5MPH result in a wind chill of 28F below zero! So anyway you slice it, its down right frigid. I am now going to go get in my nice warm bed, and cuddle up with my puppy. Darn good place to be when its this cold! JRWeather Current Alerts map below...


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(No Official National Weather Service Alerts Have Been Issued)

Temperatures Plummet While Winds Increase; JRWeather Wind Chill Advisory In Effect

Local Update...
   Dangerously Cold Wind Chills For Tonight; JRWeathwer Wind Chill Advisory In Effect Until 12PM Wednesday...


JRWeather WIND CHILL ADVISORY
     JRWeather continues a Wind Chill Advisory for all of Vermont, and all Of Northern New York From Midnight Until 12PM Wednesday.

     Strong winds, and plummeting temperatures behind a cold front will result in Wind Chill concerns into Wednesday. A sharp arctic cold front will bring falling temperatures into the 0 to 5F below range, with winds in the 15-25MPH range with gusts up to 40MPH for the overnight hours. This will result in wind chills in the 20F to 30F below zero. Occasionally in the strong wind gusts overnight, wind chills will fall to as low 35F to 40F below zero, however this will not be a constant Wind Chill reading so no Wind Chill Warning is needed.

     Winds should abate enough to allow the Wind Chill Advisory to expire at noon on Wednesday, although winds chills will still be very cold, in the 10 below to 5 above range. Once again make sure to dress warmly in layers, and wear a heavy duty winter coat, along with a good pair of gloves, and a hat. If you do not do this and are outside, frostbite can occur on exposed skin in about 30 minutes, and hypothermia can set in with much less time. A Wind Chill Advisory is issued for wind chills in the 15 below to 30 below zero range. Stay tuned.


DISCUSSION
     The cold front has moved through Northern New York, and Western Vermont. Its in the process of pushing through Eastern Vermont right now. Snow squalls weren't really existent in the Champlain Valley, but across Northern New York, and the Western Slopes of the Green mountains, the snow did fall very heavy for a short period of time. Right now snow showers of light to moderate intensity are along and just east of the spine of the Green mountains. This is pretty much where the cold front is located as well. The front will clear Vermont by around 3AM. But the snow squall activity has diminished greatly. There was no need to extend the Winter Weather Advisory for Eastern Vermont, as the intensity of the snow showers were diminishing. A couple things that will remain of concern is the rapidly falling temperatures. Here in Swanton Village temperatures plummeted 15 degrees in 1 hour. The temperature currently is 14.7 which will likely change by the time this is posted. (Look at the upper right hand corner of the blog site, and you will see the live Swanton Village weather conditions.) Now of additional concern, with these rapidly falling temps is the fact that roads are going to turn to a sheet of ice. Temperatures did rise to the freezing mark in many places or even slightly higher, which allowed roads to become wet instead of frozen. This flash freeze will cause significant black ice, on almost all roadways. Winds will also help blow the snow around, and create whiteout conditions in some areas. The final concern that follows with the falling temperatures and strong winds, will be the Wind Chill factor. Temperatures will fall in the 0 to 5F below range. With winds of 15-25MPH and gusts up to 40MPH, this will result in wind chills in the 20F to 30F below range. In fact in some of the stronger wind gusts, the Wind Chill Will feel as low as 35F to 40F below zero. Luckily though these much lower wind chills will only be felt in gusts, and not constantly. Never-the-less Wind Chills of 20F to 30F below zero can cause frostbite in about 30 minutes or less, and hypothermia can set in much sooner. Make sure to dress very warmly, and in layers. Do as the above Wind Chill Advisory says to do. A good way to remember this is, my aunt would always say "Brush only the teeth you want to keep" well in cold temperatures like this, I will switch this little saying around... So Cover only the skin you want to keep. Believe me, you don't want frostbite! Stay tuned for further updates!!!


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Snow Squalls Moving Through Northern New York; Vermont Is Next; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect & Wind Chill Advisory In Effect

Local Update...
   JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect Until Midnight; JRWeather Wind Chill Advisory In Effect From Midnight Until 12PM Wednesday...


JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather Has Continues The Winter Weather Advisory For All Of Vermont, and All Of Northern New York Until Midnight.

     A strong clipper system moving into Canada from the Great Lakes region, tonight, will bring Snow squalls, strong gusty winds, plummeting temperatures, dangerous wind chills, and near white out conditions at times.

     Light snow developed across Northern, and Central New York, and much of Vermont, but only flurries, and light snow showers occurred so far in the Champlain Valley. Snow totals currently across northern New York have been in the around and inch, with up to 3 inches in portions of Southern St. Lawrence County. In Vermont a dusting to 1 inch has fallen, with only a dusting in the Champlain Valley. A sharp cold front moving through Western New York as of 7:30PM will result in the light snow rapidly changing to heavy snow, with reduced visibilities. Along and behind this cold front strong gusty winds, with gusts to 40MPH will be possible, helping blow around the snow and continuing to keep visibilities low. Also behind this front, temperatures will plummet 10-20 degrees in a couple of hours. Wind chills will then become a concern as temperatures drop to near zero. Continued winds of 10-20MPH with gusts to 30MPH with temperatures near zero, will result in Wind Chills ranging from 15F to 25F degrees below zero. Total snow accumulations by Midnight will range from 1-3 inches across the entire region, with 3-6 inches across southern portions of St. Lawrence County in New York.

     Heavy Snow Showers and squalls currently located just east of Lake Ontario, will continue to move east.

The Snow will effect...

-The Northern Adirondack mountains between now and 8:30PM.

-The Champlain Valley between 8:30PM and 10:00PM.

-The Spine of the Green Mountains between 10:00PM and 11:00PM.

-The remainder of eastern Vermont between 11:00PM and Midnight.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when significant but not severe winter weather is imminent or occurring. In this case the the Winter Weather Advisory is for a combination of significant weather impacts, including Snow Squalls, Blowing Snow, and Dangerously Cold Wind Chills. Travel will become dangerous into tonight. Travel may become nearly impossible for a brief time as snow squalls, and significant blowing snow reduce visibilities to a quarter mile or less for a couple hours. If you must travel tonight, be ready for sudden changes in the weather. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WIND CHILL ADVISORY
     JRWeather continues a Wind Chill Advisory for all of Vermont, and all Of Northern New York From Midnight Until 12PM Wednesday.

     A strong clipper system, and its associated cold front will be moving across the region tonight, with some significant winter weather. The clipper will bring falling temperatures into the 0 to 5F below range, with winds in the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 30MPH for the overnight hours. This will result in wind chills in the 15F to 25F below zero.

     Winds should abate enough to allow the Wind Chill Advisory to expire at noon on Wednesday, although winds chills will still be very cold, in the 10 below to 5 above range. Once again make sure to dress warmly in layers, and wear a heavy duty winter coat, along with a good pair of gloves, and a hat. If you do not do this and are outside, frostbite can occur in about 30 minutes, and hypothermia can set in with much less time. A Wind Chill Advisory is issued for wind chills in the 15 below to 30 below zero range. Stay tuned.

DISCUSSION
     Very quick discussion. Squalls have been a bit delayed as the arctic front is now making it through western New York. Timing of the heavy snow is in the above advisory. Everything remains the same. I don't have enough time to update my maps, but its pretty much the same thing as last night, except an area of 3-6 inches of snow has been added to Southern St. Lawrence County. The NWS has also issued alerts for pretty much the same situation. I wont have there current alerts map up either. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Snow Squalls, Gusty Winds, and Dangerously Cold Wind Chills Tonday/ Tonight; Winter Weather Advisory & Wind Chill Advisory In Effect

Local Update...
   JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect From 3PM This Afternoon Until 12AM Wednesday; JRWeather Wind Chill Advisory In Effect From 12AM Wednesday Until 12PM Wednesday...


JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather Has Issued a Winter Weather Advisory For All Of Vermont, and All Of Northern New York From From 3PM This Afternoon Until 12AM Wednesday.

     A strong clipper system moving into the Great Lakes region, and up through the St. Lawrence Valley today into tonight, will bring Snow squalls, strong gusty winds, plummeting temperatures, dangerous wind chills, and near white out conditions at times.

     Light snow will develop this afternoon across Northern New York, and progress from West to East across the entire region, and then out of Vermont by around midnight. A sharp cold front moving through will result in the light snow rapidly changing to heavy snow, with reduced visibilities. Along and behind this cold front strong gusty winds, with gusts to 40MPH will be possible, helping blow around the snow and continuing to keep visibilities low. Also behind this front, temperatures will plummet 10-20 degrees in an hour or two. Wind chills will then become a concern as temperatures drop into the 0 to 5F below range. Continues winds of 10-20MPH with gusts to 30MPH with temperatures 0 to 5F below, will result in Wind Chills ranging from 15F to 25F degrees below zero. Total snow accumulations by 12AM Wednesday will range from 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts in Northern New York, and the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains in Vermont.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when significant but not severe winter weather is imminent or occurring. In this case the the Winter Weather Advisory is for a combination of significant weather impacts, including Snow Squalls, Blowing Snow, and Dangerously Cold Wind Chills. Travel will become dangerous late this afternoon, into this evening. Travel may become nearly impossible for a brief time as snow squalls, and significant blowing snow reduce visibilities to a quarter mile or less for a couple hours. If you must travel this evening, be ready for sudden changes in the weather. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WIND CHILL ADVISORY
     JRWeather continues a Wind Chill Advisory for all of Vermont, and all Of Northern New York From 12AM Wednesday Until 12PM Wednesday.

     A strong clipper system, and its associated cold front will be moving across the region today, and tonight, with some significant winter weather. The clipper will bring falling temperatures into the 0 to 5F below range, with winds in the 10-20MPH range with gusts up to 30MPH for the overnight hours. This will result in wind chills in the 15F to 25F below zero.

     Winds should abate enough to allow the Wind Chill Advisory to expire at noon on Wednesday, although winds chills will still be very cold, in the 10 below to 5 above range. Once again make sure to dress warmly in layers, and wear a heavy duty winter coat, along with a good pair of gloves, and a hat. If you do not do this and are outside, frostbite can occur in about 30 minutes, and hypothermia can set in with much less time. A Wind Chill Advisory is issued for wind chills in the 15 below to 30 below zero range. Stay tuned.


DISCUSSION
     Winter will arrive tonight! Your probably saying "Winter is already here" your right, however the real cold, that we have not seen this winter will be arriving tonight, and lasting through the first part of this weekend. Tonight things will become a little sketchy if your out driving. When the cold front comes through this afternoon through tonight, snow squalls, gusty winds, blowing snow, plummeting temperatures, and dangerously cold wind chills can be expected. Infact this clipper moving through has been producing Blizzard conditions from the Dakotas into portions of Michigan, however winds wont be strong enough, to produce blizzard conditions here, although it will be near blizzard conditions at times across the region. This significant weather will unfold first across Northern New York, and work its way into Vermont, by this evening, and then out of Vermont by late tonight. Snow squalls will be a good bet across much of the region, and these squalls will produce 1-3 inches in a very short period of time. Gusty winds will also be likely along and behind the cold front, (brief gusts up to 40MPH possible with the frontal passage) and this will result in blowing snow, resulting in reduced visibilities, especially for those areas that pick up around 3 inches of snow. Temperatures will also plummet behind the front, and bottom out in the 0 to 5F below range, with isolated colder pockets in the Northern Adirondack Mountains of New York, and the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. These temperatures with continued winds of 10-20MPH with gusts to 30MPH will result in wind chills in the 15F to 25F below zero overnight and into Wednesday. This is all pretty much stated in the above advisories.
     Due to the variety of weather impacts brought by this clipper, and frontal passage, I felt it was necessary to issue a Winter Weather Advisory, as this will severely impact anyone who is out traveling. These squalls will be impacting some areas during evening commute, which will be a very bad thing. The Winter Weather Advisory ends at 12AM which is when the Wind Chill Advisory will take effect, although dangerous wind chills will already be felt (But that's covered in the Winter Weather Advisory until 12AM). Stay tuned, and if traveling late this afternoon, into tonight. USE EXTREME CAUTION!!!


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At This Time, The National Weather Service Has Not Issued Any Official Alerts.

Snow Pushing Further North Then Expected; New Warnings/ Advisories Issued

Local Update...
   JRWeather Winter Storm Warning In Effect Until 11AM This Morning; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect Until 11AM This Morning...


JRWeather WINTER STORM WARNING
     JRWeather Has Issued A Winter Storm Warning For Addison, Washington, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, Windham, and Eastern Chittenden Counties in Vermont and Essex County in New York Until 11AM This Morning.

     Snow has expanded much further north then models have depicted, and with bands of heavy snow setting up across Central/ Northern New York, with snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour, a Winter Storm Warning has been expanded further north.

     Moderate to heavy snow will continue through early morning before tapering off to light snow showers, and flurries by late morning. Snow will fall heavy at times across the Warning area over the next few hours before starting to decrease in intensity. Total snow accumulations will range from 5-9 inches across the Warning area, with locally higher amounts, especially along the spine of the Green Mountains in Central, and Southern Vermont.

     A Winter Storm Warning is issued when severe winter weather is likely. In this case the Winter Storm Warning is for moderate to heavy amounts of snow. Travel will remain hazardous into this morning. If you must travel, use extreme caution. If possible postpone your plans until later this afternoon. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
     JRWeather Has Issued a Winter Weather Advisory For Orleans, Lamoille, Essex, Caledonia, Eastern Franklin, and Western Chittenden Counties in Vermont and For Southeastern St. Lawrence, Southwestern St. Lawrence, Southern Franklin, and Western Clinton Counties in New York Until 11AM This Morning.

     Snow has expanded much further north then models have depicted, so a Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded further north.

     Light to Moderate snow with an occasional heavy burst will continue through early morning before tapering off to light snow showers, and flurries by late morning. Total snow accumulations will range from 3-6 inches across the Advisory area.

     A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when significant but not severe winter weather is imminent or occurring. In this case the the Winter Weather Advisory is for moderate amounts of snow. Travel will remain hazardous through late morning. Use extreme caution if you have to travel. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     This will be short, as I am tired, and want to go to bed. Overall situation is the same as the past several clippers we have had, that resulted in Warning/ Advisory Criteria. The system has tracked further north then models are showing, and even the latest model runs refuse to show it. Eitherway the result is snow further north. Warnings, and Advisories have been issued further north. Right now a band of heavy snow extends from Essex County New York across Chittenden, Addison, Lamoille, Washington, Caledonia, and Orange Counties. This band is producing snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour. This band will help push snow totals to Warning criteria across Addison, Washington, and Orange Counties, and help push other areas further north into Advisory criteria snow. The only areas where advisory criteria snow will not be met (4-6 inches in 12 hours or less) will be the Northern Champlain Valley of Vermont, and New York, the Northern St. Lawrence Valley of Northern New York, and along the international border communities from New York Through Vermont, although some places will be close to advisory amounts of snow. Travel will continue to be hazardous through early morning, then slowly improve throughout the day. Stay tuned for any further updates!


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