The 2009 Super Storm?

Local Update...
   Major East Coast Winter Storm Possible For Monday Through Wednesday...


DISCUSSION
     Before I get into this, I want everyone to know, I am not hyping this storm, I am basing this strictly off what the models are currently showing, and have been that past day or so. I want to urge to everyone that, there is a lot of time between now and the storm and things could change drastically between now and then. But due to the fact models have been consitent on the strength of the storm, I feel this blog post, needs to be posted.

     A very interesting situation is unfolding for the Monday to Wednesday time frame. All long range models have been showing the possibility of a major east coast storm system. With all models indicating a system of 980mb or stronger. The recent 18z dgex model shows a minimum pressure down to 959mb. That is the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane. That would also make it slightly stronger then the 1993 Super Storm. I highly doubt the storm will reach the forecasted strength that the dgex is forecasting though. I want to urge, that although this storm looks to be similar, it does not appear that it will rival the 1993 Superstorm. The '93 Superstorm was a storm that will not happen again for many more years to come. One significant and historical system that this storm has the potential to be significantly greater then, is the 2007 Valentines Day Nor'easter.

     Now with all that said your probably wondering, how much snow I might think will fall? Well this will be tricky, as there will be significant warm air aloft. Rain does appear likely for the entire State of Vermont at this time, but the rain will be moderate to heavy for many hours, before changing to wind whipped snow towards the end of the storm. The area where Blizzard conditions are most likely will be over the Northern Adirondack mountains, and the St. Lawrence Valley. That is just for the JRWeather coverage area. Blizzard conditions may be witnessed as far south as Tennessee, with accumulating snow as far south as Northern Louisiana. The track of the storm is very dependent on how much snow will fall across our region. At this time though if models were correct this would mean 12+ inches of snow for much of Northern New York. But remember, this is if the current model indications were to occur. There will likely be changes, but one thing that is almost for sure is that a very significant storm will form.

     Overall if this storm materializes, then we will see a historic storm system. One to be remember for some time. Please stay tuned for further updates, as future models runs hold the keys to what will happen. If this storm is able to track along the actual coast, then significant snow would be likely for almost the entire JRWeather coverage area. I want to urge once again though, that the details I gave you here are on what the current models show, things will likely change. Make sure to stay tuned for further updates!

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE!!

Below is an image of the most recent 18Z DGEX model, forecasting a peak intensity of 959.1mb or 28.32in across the Vermont, Massachusettes border...