Signficant Snowfall Possible For Wednesday To Thursday; JRWeather Winter Storm Watch In Effect

Local Update...
   JRWeather Winter Storm Watch In Effect From 3AM Wednesday Until 12AM Thursday...

JRWeather WINTER STORM WATCH
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Caledonia, Washington, Addison, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, Windham, and Eastern Chittenden Counties In Vermont, and Essex County In New York From 3AM Wednesday Until 12AM Thursday.

     A low pressure system is expected to form over the South Central United States, and move Northeast. The storm system should be east of Cape Cod by Thursday afternoon.

     Light flurries/ snow showers should develop around midnight, and steadier snow should move into the region for very early Wednesday Morning and continue moderate to heavy at times into Wednesday evening, before tapering off by Very early Thursday Morning. Total snow accumulations by very early Thursday morning at this time look to range from 5-9 inches across the Watch area, with the highest amounts across Southern Vermont. A slight shift in the track or strength could result in a shift of the heaviest snow further to the north or south.

     A Winter storm watch is issued when there is a strong potential for severe winter weather, but not imminent. In this case the Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the potential of significant amounts of snow. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     A low pressure system is expected to develop over the South-Central United states and track east-northeast or northeast, in a rather zonal jet stream flow. The jet stream will become less zonal, and attempt to build a trough as this low is progressing east, resulting in the storm shifting in a more northeasterly direction. At this point the storm is expected to track into the mid-Atlantic states, and off the coast, and to the east of Cape Cod by Thursday. As we have seen with these west to east moving storms, they trend to move further north. This has been the case with past several model runs. Several days ago, this storm was forcasted to be very minor and move off the Southeastern coast of the United States as nothing more then some light to moderate rain, But that's obviously changed. Things still remain to be seen though. Confidence though has increased enough for me to issue a Winter Storm Watch for Central, and Southern Vermont, as well as Essex County New York. At this time the National Weather Service has issued no official alerts for this system, but that will likely change by later today. Total accumulations at this point look to range from 5-9 inches across the Watch area. If things remain rather consistent then an Advisory will also likely be needed for the areas, north of the Winter Storm Watch, for snow totals of 3-5 inches. Just of interesting note, the NAM snow model indicated up to 5-8 inches for almost the entire region, with 6-12 across Southern Vermont, and the GFS snow model indicated 6-10 Across the Northern Areas with 10-15 inches across Central and Southern Vermont. I guarantee that's way overdone. But still its something nice to imagine. Stay tuned for more updates...


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