Dont Let The Early Snowfall, and Cold Fool You: 2008 - 2009 Winter Forecast

Winter 2008 - 2009 Forecast
Forecast By: Joshua W. Ramsdell
1st Forecast
11/13/08

Overview:
For the 2008-2009 Winter Weather Forecast for All of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Northern New York. Isolated areas outside the above mentioned states will also be included in separate sections. The following areas include Central/ Coastal New Jersey, and Central and Southern Florida. Things will not be like last year. Although we have been having several early cold blasts, topped by an early significant snowstorm in late October. The entire winter will not follow as its early start may contradict. This forecast will cover the months of November, December, January, February, and March. A total of 3 forecasts will be issued over these months. This is the 1st of the 3 forecasts. An updated forecast will be issued at the end of December, and the end of February.

Vermont/ New Hampshire/ Northern New York:
Last years incredibly busy winter will be missed by some this year, although we will have our share of snow, the number of storms will be less than last year. The area will still encounter a couple large storms, but overall precipitation will be less then last year. The forecast compared to climatological history indicates this year precipitation will be average to slightly below average.
Last years temperatures were not that bad. It was cold, but temperatures were pretty much average for the area. This year will hold colder temperatures then last year, as the jet stream will likely dig farther south, than average. There will be several warm episodes though, but don't let them fool you. The overall temperatures though compared to climatological history indicates temperatures will likely be slightly below average to moderately below average.

Central/ Coastal New Jersey
Last year was fairly uneventful for the mid-Atlantic. A winter was pretty much non-existent. Much of the precipitation was in the form of rain. Very few snowflakes were seen, especially for Central/ Coastal New Jersey. This year will likely bring more snow. With the mean forecasted jet stream digging deeper south than average, the storms that do form will likely bring more snow than last year. Overall precipitation will be average for this area, however being so far south the average snowfall is low, this time your average precipitation will be more in the form of frozen precipitation than liquid precipitation. So all in all average precipitation, but more snow.
Last years temperatures were near average to slightly above average. As stated above the forecasted deeper digging jet stream will provide much colder air then last year. The forecast for this year compared to climatological history indicates temperatures will be below average.

Central/ Southern Florida
Last year was pretty much a normal winter for Florida, not a ton of precipitation, and by far no significant snow for Florida, which is normal. This year things will likely be much more interesting. As stated in all the above forecasts, a deeper digging jet stream will cause cooler air to be over the region, and cause more energy to be ejected into this region. So the forecast is calling for slightly above average to moderately above average precipitation compared to the Climatological history.
Last year, temperatures were fairly normal, a few times things cooled down significantly, but not all that bad. This year will prove to be much cooler. There will be several episodes of very cold air moving down into Central/ Southern Florida. In-fact the freezing mark very well could be witnessed into Central Florida. Overall temperatures for this area compared to climatological history will be slightly below average to moderately below average.


Stay tuned for an updated long term forecast at the end of December.


A Special thanks to NOAA, and NOAA's National Weather Service, where I was able to find information and conduct research.


Also a 2008 - 2009 Winter Season Snowfall map will be issued by the end of December.