Rain on its way, Significant Flooding Likely.

OVERVIEW:
     Rainfall has spread across Southern and Central Vermont, A brief break in the action will lead way to heavier rain later this evening across Western Vermont, and Northern New York. Tropical like air mass is overspreading the region as I speak. Of some concern is areas in Northern Vermont, and Northern New York have seen a bit of sun, this is helping to destabilize the atmosphere which could help in aiding the development of localized higher rainfall amounts then talked about below.

MODELS:
     This is the part that is absolutely amazing. All models including the NGM which is known for being "dry" is now indicating as much as 6 inches of rain. The GFS is now increasing its total precipitation amount and is showing areas of as much as 5 inches. The NAM model continues to be significantly higher with up to 10 inches across Southern Vermont. But with that said, the NAM is continuing to be consistent and the other models are now increasing the amount of rain we are expected to get. I will say though the NAM is still a bit high with as much as 10 inches of rain. But it bears watching.

WHAT TO EXPECT/ TIMING
     Rain will continue to overspread the area this late afternoon, and everyone should be experiencing rain by mid-evening. Rain will become heavy at times, and could contain some embedded thunderstorms. Where thunderstorms are, torrential rain will fall, and this could cause not just regular flooding problems but some Flash Flooding problems. This will need to be monitored closely as well. Rain should tapper off from Southwest to Northeast Thursday Evening. Total rainfall amounts will vary greatly from as little as 1 inches in parts of New Hampshire to as much as 4 inches with locally higher amounts approaching 8 or 9 inches. This is a serious situation and please continue to monitor your local weather and media outlets as well as this blog for further updates. Significant flooding will likely occur.

     Below is a map of the National Weather Service Current Alerts, and my precipitation forecast...