Significant Flooding Likely Across Northern New York, and All of Vermont

OVERVIEW:
     Its now time to get set for what could end up being a record setting weather event. Over the past two weeks several inches of rain has prepared the area for what could be a flood to remember.

COMPUTER MODELS:
     The latest information from the National Weather Service computer models are continuing to indicate as little as 2 inches to as much as 10 inches of rain. The NGM model which is always know for being the "dry" model is indicating as little as 1.5 inches to as much as 4 inches of rain. The GFS model I am still waiting for the latest update, but the model run at around 5PM indicated as little as 1.75 inches to as much as 4 inches of rain. The NAM model which just came out is indicating as little as 1.5 inches to as much as 10 inches of rain. Now this model is still the outlier. But of interesting note, it has been consistent and has been increasing the amount of precip with every model run. I will continue to not rely on this model, but it is something just to keep in the back of the mind. As this outlier has been correct before when it was ruled as being an outlier. Depending on what the GFS model indicates, I may issue another update shortly after this one when that models latest run comes out. Also to quickly note, the heavy rain axis has shifted a bit further to the west. I will have to keep an eye on this to possibly shift the heaviest rainfall totals on my map further to the west.

WHAT TO EXPECT/ TIMING:
     You can expect tomorrow morning to be mostly cloudy, any sunshine will rapidly be covered by clouds by late morning. Rain will begin to develop across Southern Vermont and New Hampshire as early as Late Wednesday Morning. By early Wednesday Evening all areas will be seeing rain. Rain will become heavy at times, especially into the overnight hours. On Thursday rain will continue and end from South to North. Rain should taper off across the entire area by early evening.

     Below are several maps, first is of the Current National Weather Service alerts, second is of what I feel should be issued for alerts, third map is the risk area for flooding, and the final map is my forecasted rainfall totals...