Tuesday, February 26, 2008

9PM Nor'easter Update

     Significant changes have been made to snowfall totals. This is looking more like an elevational storm to an extent. Across Northern New York, and Western Vermont, it will be elevation dependent, due to the fact temps are hovering around freezing in the Valley's and temps into the mid 20's in the higher elevations. The other elevational dependent factor is with the wrap around/ upslope snow. Significant wrap around precipitation looked like it was going to produce a large amount of snow, even in the valleys, however I dont feel this will occur, as precip is already diminishing in areal coverage/ intensity across Northern New York, and Western Vermont. Closer to the low pressure system in Eastern Vermont, and New Hampshire, where temps stay near freezing, even in the lower elevation, precipitation will be much more intense and will be able to accumulate. Still highest amounts in the higher elevations, but generally higher snow totals across that area. Below is my updated snowfall forecast, all areas could see locally higher amounts, but most significant amounts will be along the western slopes of the green mountains, and higher elevations of New Hampshire. Isolated amounts exceeding 12 inches is possible in those areas (this is not depicted on the map). One thing I would like to mention is, I am a bit worried that in the Champlain Valley region of Vermont there could be significantly more snow then 3-8 due to the famous convergence zone that tends to set up in storms that track like this. So this will be a tough storm and the higher snowfall amounts across Northern New York, and Western Vermont will also be dependant on Meso. feautures. However I am not convinced enough that this will occur to paint anything higher then 3-8 on the map. We shall soon see. Have a goodnight, and drive very careful, if you MUST travel.

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