Warm Temperatures, Combined With Significant Rainfall Raise Flooding Concerns Once Again; JRWeather Flood Watch In Effect From 1AM Wednesday Morning Until 1AM Thursday Morning...
JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
JRWeather Has Issued A Flood Watch For Franklin, Orleans, Essex, Chittenden, Lamoille, Caledonia, Addison, Washington, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont, and All of Northern New York, From 1AM Wednesday Morning Until 1AM Thursday Morning.
Significant Rainfall, and Snowmelt Tuesday Night into Wednesday Night could result in the potential of Flooding Wednesday into Thursday. Across Northern Vermont, and Northern New York the potential exists for Ice Jam Flooding, further South non-ice jam related flooding could occur.
Temperatures in the Mid 40'sF to Low 50'sF combined with the potential of a half to as much as one inch of rain Tuesday into Wednesday will result in rapid rises on area rivers. Across Northern Vermont, where Ice remains in Place on area rivers, the threat will exist for ice jam flooding. Across Central, and Southern Vermont, where heavy rains fell this past weekend, the additional rain may push area rivers, creeks, and streams out of there banks.
The rivers that are at a high risk of Ice Jam flooding right now are the Missisquoi River in Orleans, and Franklin Counties in Vermont. The Lamoille River in Lamoille, and Franklin Counties in Vermont, The Great Chazy river in Clinton County, New York, and the Ausable River, including the East Branch in Essex and Clinton Counties in New York.
The rivers that are at high risk for non-ice jam related flooding, across Central and Southern Vermont include but are not limited to the Otter Creek, in Rutland, and Addison Counties, the Williams River, in Windham County, and The Batten Kill, in Bennington County.
A Flood watch is issued when there is the potential for flooding to occur, but not imminent. If you experience rapidly rising water, or nearby flooding, then move immediately to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.
DISCUSSION
Looks like things will get interesting once again for our region. I have issued a Flood Watch for the entire region, except Grand Isle, County. Why? Because Grand Isle County has no Rivers, only a Lake, which wont be flooding anytime soon. Rain should start late Tuesday night, perhaps as a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain, but during the mid to late Morning hours, any mix left, will rapidly change over to all rain. Right now models are indicating as little as a half inch along the Canadian border, to as much as one inch across Central, and Southern Vermont. The latest 00Z NAM model is the most robust indicating a widespread three quarters of an inch to an inch and a quarter across our region, with isolated amounts as high as an inch and a half across Central Vermont. I really don't see widespread amounts exceeding an inch. Although it wouldn't be a surprise if an isolated amount or two in excess of one inch occurs, but I don't feel that it will be a widespread thing. Eitherway conditions will continue to be watched closely. Stay tuned for further updates!!
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The National Weather Service has not issued any official alerts at this time.
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