JRWeather Flood Warning In Effect Until 5PM This Evening; JRWeather Winter Weather Advisory In Effect From 2AM This Morning, Until 2PM This Afternoon...
JRWeather FLOOD WARNING
JRWeather Has Continued The Flood Warning For Windham County in Vermont Until 5PM Monday.
The Williams River Continues To Run Out Of Its Banks In Windham County Vermont.
At 12:00AM The Williams River at Rockingham was at a stage of 8.8 Feet. Flood Stage on the Williams River at Rockingham is 8.0 Feet. The river has been steady at 8.8 feet since 4PM Sunday Afternoon.
The River jumped nearly 3 feet within 30 minutes Sunday morning between 10:45AM and 11:15AM. This is likely the result of an ice jam.
If you live near the Flood area, along the Williams River, it is recommended to move to higher ground. If you live downstream of the river, and no flooding is occurring, then watch the waterway closely, if the ice jam lets go, water levels will rise rapidly downstream, similar to flash flooding.
A Flood Warning is issued when Flooding is occurring or imminent. If you live in a flood prone area, and that area is experiencing high water, move to higher ground immediately. Stay tuned for further updates!
JRWeather WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
JRWeather Has Continued The Winter Weather Advisory For Grand Isle, Franklin, Chittenden, Lamoille, Caledonia, Addison, Washington, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont, and All of Northern New York From 2AM This Morning Until 2PM This Afternoon.
A low pressure system tracking from the Southern Great Lakes region, to near Long Island New York by Monday Afternoon will result in snow, possibly heavy at times across much of the region.
Snow should develop by 5AM across the Advisory area. Snow will fall heavy at times, especially early Monday Morning. Snow should rapidly tapper off by late Monday afternoon. Total snow accumulations will range from 3-6 inches with locally higher amounts across the Adirondack mountains, and Southern Green mountains, where localized amounts of 8 inches could fall.
A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when there is a strong likelihood of significant but not severe winter weather. In this case the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for light to moderate amounts of snow. Stay tuned for further updates.
DISCUSSION
The Flood Statement has expired as planned. The river gauge on the East Branch of the Ausable River, in Ausable Forks, is showing signs that the jam may be slowly breaking apart as water levels are starting to fall. Although if the jam rapidly breaks down, then areas downstream will need to be careful as river levels will rise very rapidly. At this point though all flooding is minimal. In Southern Vermont at the Williams River at Rockingham, an Ice Jam remains strongly in place. The river level there has been the same since 4PM this afternoon. This shows the ice jam is strongly in place at this time. Flooding in this location could last well into Monday or possibly early Tuesday, if the jam does not shift, or break open, allowing water to escape.
The Winter Weather Advisory remains in place, I was strongly thinking of placing the Northern Adirondack mountains in New York under a Winter Storm Warning, as the latest GFS model indicates a more widespread area of .75" inches of liquid equivalent falling. This would be close to low end Warning Criteria. I decided though to leave it as an advisory and leave the .75" liquid equivalent being depicted in the GFS as only a localized thing, resulting in some snow amounts near 8 inches. Widespread snow amounts should range from 3-6 inches across the Advisory area, stay tuned for further updates. I have updated the maps below...
CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE!!
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