Like A Broken Record; More Rain and Flood Concerns On The Way

OVERVIEW:
     We just cannot get away from this rainy pattern...and once again more rain, and potential flooding is on its way. Over the past 30 days widespread rainfall totals of 10 - 15 inches of rain across Addison County Vermont, and much of Northeastern, and North-central Vermont. Across the entire state over the last 30 days rainfall totals are 4 - 8 inches, except for the above areas mentioned that have received more. Across Northern New York widespread rainfall of 4 - 8 inches has been common over the past 30 days, and across New Hampshire, in the Northern areas 8 - 15 inches has been common, and across Central and Southern areas 4 - 8 inches have been common. With all this rain, its a surprise we have not had any significant widespread flooding. Its nothing but rain event after rain event. But by the grace of god, its been spaced out just right, to avoid widespread disaster. So unfortunate to say, it looks like another rain storm is on the way for Wednesday to Friday time frame.

WHAT TO EXPECT/ TIMING:
     Rain possibly heavy at times is expected Wednesday into Friday. On Wednesday Clouds will increase and the threat for thunderstorms will develop first across Northern New York, then into Vermont, and New Hampshire. These storms will for into a band of moderate rain overnight into Thursday and then taper off to showers for Thursday afternoon into Friday. Right now any flooding to occur would likely be minor due to the fact it is a prolonged event. But with the threat of thunderstorms will be the threat of Flash Flooding, due to the fact they will be fairly slow movers, and will have a tendency to back build.
     Right now the best chance for any type of Flooding is across Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire, where heavy rainfall over the past month has refused to let the ground dry much at all, and this area is expected to get the heaviest of rain. The entire area though has a moderate threat for flooding due to all the rain as well.

MODELS:
     Models are differing as to where the placement of the heaviest precipitation is going to be, but either way they all show at least .50" - 1" of rain to be common across the entire area. The NAM model indicates up to 4 inches of rain to fall along the international border and down into Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire. I feel the NAM model is a bit overdone on rainfall totals. The GFS model shows up to 2 inches of rain across Northern New York. The final model the NGM is indicating up to 1.5 inches of rain, along the international border. So needless to say I am forecasting the entire area to see .50" - 1 inch of rain with a more widespread area of 1 - 2 inches across Northeastern New York, Northern, and Central Vermont, and Northern and Central New Hampshire, with an area of 2 - 3 inches across Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire. The 2 - 3 inch area is more of a local thing then widespread. Now .50 - 1 inch of rain will not cause flooding what so ever, but widespread 2 inch amounts could begin to cause problems especially if it falls within 24 hours, which does look to occur. As the heaviest rain is forecasted to be Wednesday into Thursday, with much lighter rain Thursday into Friday. Any thunderstorms that develop could cause locally even higher amounts, and the potential of some Flash Flooding, especially if these thunderstorms form over Northeastern Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire. Below are 2 maps, one if the flood potential map, and the other is forecasted rainfall totals. Stay tuned for further updates...