Sunday, August 24, 2008

Time To Talk Tropics; Is That You Gustav?

Hey Everyone,
     So far everything has been local but I want to switch to a little farther away, and focus on some tropical weather. I didn't post anything on Tropical Storm Fay because it was not that intense, although the amounts of rain it dropped was absolutely extreme. Anyway fay is continuing to weaken and dry up over Louisiana. What I want to talk about next is what will likely be the next tropical depression, and next named storm. The name would be Gustav.
     Currently what they're calling a wave of low pressure is producing some fairly intense convection over the Southeastern Caribbean. The center is obviously not well defined as stated by the National Hurricane Center, however upper level winds will continue to be favorable for development, and convection has continuously been firing up, closer to the forecasted center of low pressure, and what appears to be a developing outflow area. Sea surface temperatures are also very conducive for development. This will likely officially become the next tropical system sometime tomorrow.
     Models for this area of low pressure area are all over the place. But it appears that it will move up into the Northwestern Caribbean in about 3 days. Then models are all over the place. None agree on remotely the same track. And of course this is extremely way to early to call it, but I will say it first...Gulf Coast states watch this one closely.

Here is the most up to date satellite image on the above mentioned system...

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