Rain Continuing To Push Into Vermont; Flood Watches Have Been Cancelled For Northern New York...
JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
JRWeather Has Continued A Flood Watch For All of Vermont, Excluding Grand Isle County Until 8PM Tuesday Evening.
JRWeather has cancelled the flood watch for Northern New York.
Significant rainfall is expected today, this combined with recent rains, and any remaining higher elevation snow, will result in the potential for area streams, brooks, and rivers to rise out of their banks.
A low pressure system currently situated over the far western tip of New York, will continue to drift northeast, as low pressure redevelops just off the the mid-Atlantic coast, and Southern New England. This low pressure area will continue to spread rain across Vermont, and Northern New York. Rain should be falling across the entire region by noontime. Rain will fall heavy at times, especially across Southern, and Eastern Vermont during the afternoon hours today. Total rainfall accumulations at this time look to range from three quarters of an inch to as much as one and a quarter inches. This amount of rain combined with recent rainfall will result in rapid rises on area waterways, and the potential for minor flooding.
A flood watch is issued when the potential exists for flooding to occur, but not yet imminent, or occurring. If you experience rapidly rising water, or nearby flooding, then move immediately to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.
JRWeather WIND ADVISORY
JRWeather Continues The Wind Advisory For Orleans, Lamoille, Washington, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, Eastern Addison, and Eastern Rutland Counties in Vermont Until 5PM Tonight.
Low pressure currently over the far western tip of New York, will continue to drift northeast, and redevelop off the mid-Atlantic coast, and Southern New England. This storm is expected to bring strong winds to the Western Slopes of the Green mountains. Current indications are that sustained winds will range from 20-30MPH with gusts in the 45-50MPH. Winds of this magnitude can result in difficult driving, especially for high profile vehicles, loose object such as trash cans, and lawn chairs can be blown around as well.
A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 30-39MPH and/ or gusts of 45-54MPH are expected. It is recommended to secure any loose object that will have the potential to be blown around. Stay tuned for further updates.
DISCUSSION
Things looking interesting this morning. Large dry slot moving east, while precipitation is developing across the mid-Atlantic states. Also, significant pressure falls, just off the Carolina capes, to Southern New Jersey. It appears low pressure is trying to form within that area. Meanwhile, primary 990mb low pressure center is across Chautauqua County in far western New York. Water vapor imagery shows the significant dry slot nicely, but also shows rapidly developing convection out ahead of this dry slot, jet dynamics are also strong in this area, and with a good link to gulf of Mexico moisture, I feel that we will continue to see precipitation develop/ intensify over our area, the next several hours. The progression of the dry slot, should also slow down as time progresses, how far east it makes it though is key to the Flood Watch for the Western portion of Vermont. Weather models want to put the heaviest precipitation just to the east of the Champlain Valley, however as this storm starts to go negative tilt, which is also obvious in water vapor imagery, it will link up with moisture from the Atlantic, and advect that back into our region as well. So I feel the cut off line is a bit to far east on the models. As the storm goes negative tilt, it may actually allow significant precipitation to continue across Clinton County New York as well. One thing models do show nicely is precipitation rapidly developing over our region this afternoon, heavy at times too.
With all that in mind, I am expecting a half to three quarter of an inch of rain for Northern New York, with locally higher amounts across Northeastern New York. I am expecting three quarters of an inch to one inch of rain across the western half of Vermont, and one inch to one and a half inches of rain across the eastern half of Vermont. With that mentioned, I have cancelled the Flood Watch for northern New York as not enough rain will fall to cause flooding. Sharp rises will still likely be noted on smaller brooks, and streams, as well as the East Branch of the Ausable River. But the likelihood of flooding has diminished across this area. For Vermont, the Flood Watch will continue, the area most vulnerable to flooding will be southern, and eastern Vermont. In Western Vermont, the flood threat is marginal but it will be close for smaller tributaries across the region. The only larger river that could experience flooding is the Otter Creek. Other then that, the rest of western Vermont, may see flooding on area streams, brooks, and other small tributaries to the larger rivers.
The wind aspect of this system, remains intact. The Wind Advisory has been continued for the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains, as Southeasterly wind, should help produce some stronger gap, and mountain pass winds. Winds could gust as high as 50MPH this afternoon. Once again this is for areas along the western slopes of the green mountains only. A couple of the most susceptible places to these kinds of winds, are Rutland, and Cambridge. Right now winds have been increasing across Rutland, with a gust of 30MPH reported about 15 minutes ago. Unfortunately there is no automated report stations in Cambridge, so at this point wind speed are not known. They are likely similar to Rultands winds. Stay tuned for further updates!
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No official alerts have been issued by the National Weather Service at this time.
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