Rain Continues; Flood Watch & Wind Advisory Cancelled For Portions Of Vermont

Local Report...
   Rain Continues Across The Region; Flood Watch Cancelled For The Champlain Valley & Wind Advisory Cancelled For The Western Slopes Of The Green Mountains...

JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
     JRWeather Has Continued A Flood Watch For Orleans, Essex, Lamoille, Caledonia, Washington, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, Windham, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, and Eastern Addison Counties in Vermont Until 12PM Tuesday.

     JRWeather has cancelled the flood watch for the Champlain Valley in Vermont, this being the counties of Western Franklin, Western Chittenden, and Western Addison.

     Rain, occasionally heavy at times will continue into this evening, especially across eastern Vermont. The continued rain, combined with previous rainfall will result in rapid rises on area water ways, and the potential for minor flooding.

     Low pressure currently situated over western New York, will continue to drift northeast. This will result in continued rain across much of Vermont. Rain will fall heavy at times into this evening, especially across Southern, and Eastern Vermont. Total rainfall accumulations at this time look to range from three quarters of an inch to as much as one and a quarter inches. This amount of rain combined with recent rainfall will result in rapid rises on area waterways, and the potential for minor flooding. Steady rain should tapper off to light rain showers overnight.

     A flood watch is issued when the potential exists for flooding to occur, but not yet imminent, or occurring. If you experience rapidly rising water, or nearby flooding, then move immediately to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     As I had forecasted, as the storm goes negative tilt it would connect with Atlantic moisture and advect it back into the region, further west then models indicated. This would result in the Flood Watch being continued for western Vermont right?... Wrong. Unfortunately the rain we had earlier today, was in connection with warm air advection, this warm air advection outran the rest of the rain, and the jet dynamics didn't hold it together quite as I expected. The result was, not the dry slot moving in, but a break in the precip, due to the initial area of rain out running the precipitation across the mid-Atlantic region. If that break in the precipitation had not occurred, then my forecast and flood watch would have been right on, and remain untouched. Unfortunately things like this happen with weather. As expected though heavier rain has pushed in, and is falling further west then models had indicated. Its infact pushing into not only Clinton County as I had mentioned but its pushing into much of Essex, and Franklin Counties in New York as well. That's a bit further west then I had expected. Jet dynamics are impressive, and they are helping bring in copious amounts of moisture at this time. Widespread moderate to heavy rain is falling across Southern Vermont, far eastern Vermont, and much of New Hampshire. Things will continue to spread east though, and the steady/ moderate rain across the Champlain Valley will come to an end over the next couple hours. Rain showers though, will continue most of the night, as well as all day Tuesday. Rainfall accumulations will range from a half to three quarters of an inch across Northern New York, and the Champlain Valley. The rest of Vermont will see rainfall totals in the three quarters to one inch range, with isolated amounts as high as one and a half inches, across far Southeastern Vermont.

     The wind aspect has diminished, and with the low still trying to redevelop and not having much luck yet, it has stolen energy from the primary low, resulting in a slow intensification, and the pressure gradient not as tight as predicted. Thus the Wind Advisory has been cancelled. Stay tuned for further updates!


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No official alerts have been issued by the National Weather Service at this time.