Significant Storm System To Impact The Region Monday Into Tuesday; JRWeather High Wind Watch & Flood Watch In Effect...
JRWeather HIGH WIND WATCH
JRWeather has issued a High Wind Watch For Bennington, Orleans, Lamoille, Washington, Rutland, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, Eastern Addison, and Western Windham Counties in Vermont From 8AM Monday Morning Until 11PM Monday Night.
A low pressure system expected to move across the Ohio Valley, and redevelop over Southern New England is expected to bring strong to potential damaging winds to the Western Slopes of the Green mountains. Current indications are that sustained winds will range from 30-40MPH with gusts in excess of 60MPH. Winds of this magnitude are strong enough to knock down trees, resulting in the potential for power outages, and minor structural damage. It is recommended to secure loose objects, so any damage that may occur from objects being blown around will be minimal.
Winds will slowly diminish late Monday, bringing and end to the potential damaging wind threat, but gusty winds of up to 30MPH may persist into Wednesday. A High Wind Watch is issued when the potential for sustained winds of 40MPH or greater and/or gusts to 55MPH or greater are expected, but not imminent. Stay tuned for further updates.
JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
JRWeather Has Issued A Flood Watch For All of Vermont, and All of Northern New York From 8AM Monday Morning, Until 8PM Tuesday Evening.
Significant rainfall is expected Monday into Tuesday, this combined with recent rains, and any remaining higher elevation snow, will result in the potential for rivers to rise out of their banks.
A low pressure system that will move through the Ohio valley, and redevelop over Southern New England is expected to bring moderate to heavy rain to the region. Rain should start as early as Sunday night, to as late as mid Monday morning. Rain will fall potentially heavy at times, especially across Southern, and Eastern Vermont during the afternoon hours Monday. Total rainfall accumulations at this time look to range from three quarters of an inch to as much as one and a quarter inches. There could be isolated higher amounts across Southern, and Eastern Vermont. This amount of rain combined with recent rainfall will result in rapid rises on area waterways, and the potential for flooding.
A Flood watch is issued when there is the potential for flooding to occur, but not imminent. If you experience rapidly rising water, or nearby flooding, then move immediately to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.
DISCUSSION
Looks like things will get wet, and windy once again. This time though the winds might pack a stronger punch. Weather models, continue to be in fair agreement, on the overall situation. The GFS has now come into better agreement, on how deep the low pressure system will get. The GFS is now showing a low pressure center redeveloping over the mid-Atlantic/ Southern New England area, and then slowly drift to the north, as it deepens to 980mb. Other models indicate the central pressure being anywhere from 982mb to 985mb. I will continue to forecast a low pressure system moving through the Ohio valley, and redeveloping near the mid-Atlantic/ southern New England region, and deepening to a 980-985mb low pressure system. I feel the low will somewhat retrograde to the West-northwest or northwest, then finally weaken, lessening its impact on our region by Wednesday night.
It looks as though anywhere from three quarters of an inch to one and a quarter inches of rain will fall. There could be localized amounts to near 2 inches where the heaviest rain falls. These isolated higher amounts will likely be witnessed across Southern, and Eastern Vermont. Never-the-less that amounts of rain on top of the rain we received Friday and Saturday will likely cause some flooding problems. Therefor I have issued a Flood Watch for the entire area. The Champlain Valley was going to be excluded up until Saturday afternoon, when a half to three quarters of an inch of additional rain fell in the Valley Saturday, due to significant wrap around moisture. Therefor the Champlain Valley made up for the majority of the shadowing that occurred with the Friday portion of this most recent storm. The valley went from a forecasted storm total of a third to half inch to three quarters to one inch total for the Friday/ Saturday storm.
With the above mentioned surface pressure and track, it should be mentioned that winds will be strong, but thankfully not as strong as models were predicting days ago. This is in part thanks to a weaker expected storm system, and a slightly different track then first expected. The changes will result in a more South-Southeasterly wind, instead of the favorable Southeast or east winds, that produce the well known damaging gap, and mountain pass winds along the Western Slopes of the Green mountains. With that said, the western slopes are still not out of the woods. Strong to potentially damaging winds may still occur, just not to the extent first predicted. Sustained winds at this point look to range from the 30-40MPH with gusts up to 60MPH, with the potential for isolated higher gusts in favored areas. Due to the expected winds, I have issued a High Wind Watch for the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. Conditions will continue to be closely monitored for any changes.
Last but certainly not least, the snow aspect of this system. As cold air wraps around the system, rain should change over to snow for a time across the higher elevations, especially across Northern New York. Wrap around precipitation might be similar to the current storm we had, but with more colder air in place significant snow accumulations could occur, mainly above 1000 feet. At this time snow amounts should remain below Warning criteria, so I have not issued a Winter Storm Watch, however a Winter Weather Advisory may eventually be needed for the potential of 3-6 inches of snow by Tuesday Afternoon. Wrap around precipitation could linger into as late as Wednesday night! Stay tuned for further updates on this upcoming storm system.
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There are no official alerts from the National Weather Service at this time
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