Strong Winds, and Potentially Heavy Rain Will Overspread The Region By Monday Morning; JRWeather Flood Watch & Wind Advisory In Effect...
JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
JRWeather Has Continued The Flood Watch For All of Vermont, and All of Northern New York From 8AM Monday Morning, Until 8PM Tuesday Evening.
Significant rainfall is expected Monday into Tuesday, this combined with recent rains, and any remaining higher elevation snow, will result in the potential for rivers to rise out of their banks.
A low pressure system moving through the Ohio valley, will redevelop over Southern New England and is expected to bring moderate to heavy rain to the region for Monday, and Monday evening. Rain should overspread the entire region by mid Monday morning. Rain will fall possibly heavy at times, especially across Southern, and Eastern Vermont during the afternoon hours Monday. Total rainfall accumulations at this time look to range from three quarters of an inch to as much as one and a quarter inches. This amount of rain combined with recent rainfall will result in rapid rises on area waterways, and the potential for minor flooding.
A flood watch is issued when the potential exists for flooding to occur, but not yet imminent, or occurring. If you experience rapidly rising water, or nearby flooding, then move immediately to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.
JRWeather WIND ADVISORY
JRWeather Has Issued A Wind Advisory For Orleans, Lamoille, Washington, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Chittenden, Eastern Addison, and Eastern Rutland Counties in Vermont From 8AM Monday Morning Until 11PM Monday Night.
A low pressure system expected to move across the Ohio Valley, and redevelop over Southern New England is expected to bring strong to potential damaging winds to the Western Slopes of the Green mountains. Current indications are that sustained winds will range from 20-30MPH with gusts in the 45-50MPH. Winds of this magnitude can result in difficult driving, especially for high profile vehicles, loose object such as trash cans, and lawn chairs can be blown around as well.
A wind advisory is issued when sustained winds of 30-39MPH and/ or gusts of 45-54MPH are expected. It is recommended to secure any loose object that will have the potential to be blown around. Stay tuned for further updates.
DISCUSSION
I have gone ahead, and updated the alerts. I have continued the Flood Watch, and have changed the High Wind Watch to a Wind Advisory. At this point damaging winds look less likely, never the less strong winds expected will still require an advisory. It looks like things may not be quite as bad as expected, but there is still time for things to unexpectedly change (Unlikely though).
Weather models continue to be in fair agreement on the overall set up, there is some discrepancies still as far as how much precipitation falls, and where exactly it will fall. The most recent 00Z NAM model run shows widespread three quarters to one and a quarter inches of rain across the entire area, while the latest 00Z GFS model run indicates less precipitation, ranging from a half to three quarters of an inch. 21Z SREF plume diagrams for Burlington, VT show significant spread, ranging from as little as a third of an inch to as much as one and a third inches, however there is a cluster of 9 of the 20 members indicating a total of three quarters to nine tenths of an inch. With 5 of those 9 members being clustered in the eight to nine tenths of an inch range. This still makes for a difficult precipitation total forecast. It doesn't help that I am unable to look at the other plume diagrams. The eyewall site doesn't seem to be up and running at the moment. With all that in mind, I will continue to follow closely to the higher end of the NAM model. I feel that due to good connection to the Gulf of Mexico, and eventually the Atlantic, I feel that enough moisture will flow into our area, to drop three quarter to one and a quarter inches of rain. The dry slot though will have to be watched closely. If the dry slot becomes bigger then expected, or shifts, then less precipitation could occur.
The wind aspect of this system has changed as well. The NAM model drops the wind threat considerably, while the GFS model continues to indicate some strong winds to still occur. As far as the winds go, I will continue to stick with the GFS, but drop wind speeds some, as the direction is not as favorable for strong gap, and mountain pass winds to occur across the Western slopes of the Green Mountains. Still though, these areas will experience sustained winds in the 20-30MPH range with gusts ranging from 45-50MPH.
The final aspect of the storm is snow. The amount of snow expected has dwindled down quite a bit as well. It now looks like there will only be 1-3 inches of snow at best, with locally higher amounts, especially across the Northern Adirondacks. Accumulating snow should be confined to areas above 1000 feet, with the higher totals at and above 1500 feet. This system will be somewhat similar to the last one that we had.
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No official alerts have been issued by the National Weather Service at this time.
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