JRWeather Freezing Rain Advisory In Effect Until 11AM This Morning; JRWeather Flood Watch In Effect From 12PM Today Until 12AM Monday; JRWeather High Wind Watch In Effect From 8AM Sunday Morning Until 8AM Monday Morning...
JRWeather FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
JRWeather has a Freezing Rain Advisory for Northern St. Lawrence, and Northern Franklin Counties in New York, and Orleans, Essex, Caledonia, Lamoille, Washington, Orange, and Windsor Counties in Vermont until 11AM this morning.
A low pressure system over the Midwestern states will continue to move north, bringing significantly warmer air into the region. This warm air will ride over the top of the cold dense air trapped over some of the sheltered valley's in Northern New York, and Eastern Vermont. Of most concern is the St. Lawrence Valley in Northern New York, and the sheltered Valley's in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Ice accumulation in the Advisory area will range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch. This will lead to icy roads, and hazardous travel. Areas that receive a quarter inch of ice, combined with winds in the 10-20MPH range with gusts to 35MPH will have the potential for small tree limbs to come down. This wont be anything widespread.
A Freezing Advisory is issued when icing of a tenth to just under a half an inch is likely to occur. Roads will become slick but not enough to make travel impossible. Drive cautiously, and defensively, and leave extra time to reach your destination.
JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
JRWeather has issued a Flood Watch for all of Northern New York, and All of Vermont except Grand Isle County, From 12PM Today to 12AM Monday.
A Low pressure system over the Midwest region will bring some strong southerly winds across the entire region. These strong winds will bring in much warmer temperatures today with mid to upper 40's in valley locations, and low to mid 40's in the higher elevations. On Sunday even warmer temperatures with upper 50's to near 60 are expected in the Valley regions, and mid to upper 50's across the higher elevations on Sunday. These near record temperatures for this time of season combined with strong winds, and rainfall amounts of a quarter to isolated amounts near three quarters of an inch, will result in rapid rises on area rivers. Temperatures have been cold enough for significant river ice to form, so the threat for ice jam flood exists, as river levels rise.
Temperatures should rapidly fall later Sunday resulting in less runoff thus the potential threat for flooding will come to an end by around 12AM Monday. A Flood watch is issued when there is the potential for flooding to occur, but not immanent. Stay tuned for further updates.
JRWeather HIGH WIND WATCH
JRWeather has issued a High Wind Watch For St. Lawrence, Franklin, Western Clinton, and Western Essex Counties in New York From 8AM Sunday To 8AM Monday.
Another low pressure system and its associated strong cold front over the Midwest region, combined with a high pressure system over the Atlantic will result in a tightening pressure gradient. This will cause the potential for damaging winds across portions of Northern New York once again. Current indications are that sustained winds will range from 25-35MPH with gusts in excess of 55MPH. Winds of this magnitude are strong enough to cause small/ weak trees and large limbs to fall resulting in the potential for power outages, and of additional concern, since its the holiday season, holiday decorations that have not yet been taken down stand the threat of being damaged, and blown around. It is recommended to secure loose objects, as well as holiday decorations so damage will be minimal if any. The strongest winds will likely occur as the cold front sweeps across the region Sunday evening, through the overnight hours.
Winds should diminish rapidly Monday morning, thus ending the high wind threat. A High Wind Watch is issued when the potential for sustained winds of 40MPH or greater and/or gusts to 55MPH or greater are expected, but not immanent. Stay tuned for further updates.
DISCUSSION
I am hoping I can keep the discussion short. We will see! It looks like it will be a busy weekend as far as weather goes, a little bit of everything to throw in the mix, Strong Winds, Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain, Plain Rain, Thunderstorms, and Maybe Some flooding. Where to start?
First things first, a low pressure system over the Midwest region with a powerful cold front will work its way east. This will bring warmer air over the region resulting in rain. This rain that falls will freeze on contact in the Northern St. Lawrence Valley in New York, and the Sheltered Valley's in eastern Vermont. But once the winds have been blowing strong enough for much of today it will eventual push out those cold surface temperatures. Elsewhere rain showers, and wind will be the rule for the day, as well as rising temperatures. By this afternoon, things will have to be watched as warmer temperatures and rain will help melt snow, by Sunday rapid snow melt, and runoff may occur, resulting in rapid rises on all area rivers, and this could cause some ice jam problems. Winds will be rather gusty throughout today, but by tomorrow winds will be potential damaging across northern New York, and very strong across the entire Champlain Valley, and entire state of Vermont. Right now a High Wind Watch has been issued for portions of Northern New York, but I can almost guarantee a Wind Advisory will be needed for everyone, except in Northern New York where a High Wind Warning may be needed.
To break it down fast and easy, watch for showers today across the entire region, with areas of Freezing Rain in the Northern St. Lawrence Valley, and in Eastern Vermont. Winds across the entire region will be a bit moderate to strong with sustained winds of 10-20MPH with gusts to 35MPH. Temperatures will warm throughout the day, and by tomorrow morning watch for winds to increase substantially. Across Northern New York winds will increase to 25-35MPH with gusts in excess off 55MPH across the Entire Champlain Valley, and rest of Vermont winds will be in the 15-30MPH range with gusts of 45-50MPH. Temperatures will be much warmer then Saturday, and with these strong winds and showers, look for rapid snow melt, and runoff. With this you will need to pay close attention to any area water ways you live near. At any sign of flooding evacuate immediately. I am headed to bed now. Stay tuned for further updates!
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