Its Gonna Be Close!

Local Update...
   Snow, Ice, and Rain To Effect The Area; Coastal Storm Thursday Night Into Friday?...

STORM NUMBER 1
     JRWeather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Northern St. Lawrence for the potential of 3-6 inches of snow, and some light ice accumulations around a tenth of an inch. The National Weather Service in Burlington, VT, and Albany, NY have not issued any official alerts for the region.
     Currently temps are in the 0 - 10F above range across the entire area, with a few below zero reading in the colder spots of Northern New York, and Northeast Vermont. Things will continue to change overnight, as warm air begins to surge into the region. The question is though, how much warm air is going to make it into the region now. Things were looking like a significant warm up to near 50 for the valleys however this is looking less likely, as cold front will hang close to the international border. The forecast is going to be very tricky. Across the St. Lawrence Valley cold air should hold long enough in all levels of the atmosphere for significant snow accumulations changing to freezing rain, and possibly some plain rain. Across the rest of the area the same situation is occurs with less accumulations the further south and east you go. There might be some higher snow accumulations across Northeast Vermont, along with ice accumulations as well. At this point I have not issued an advisory for that area, but conditions will be monitored. Right now light snow is falling, in Buffalo, Syracuse, Fulton, and Rochester. Temperatures across that region are rising and are currently in the upper teens to the mid 20'sF. So this warm front is rather strong, however, the upper layers of the atmosphere are near 32F already in Buffalo, with a surface temp of 25F. But across Northern New York and all of Vermont the upper layers of the atmosphere are in the 14 degree range with surface temps as stated above in the 0 - 10F above range. So temps will likely climb significantly across the area, but its a question of how long the cold air can hold on, especially with it being colder then forecast across our region tonight.
     So what I am going to call for is light snow to develop across Northern New York, and Southern Vermont between 2AM and 3AM, Across Northwestern, North Central, and Central Vermont between 3AM and 4AM and Across Northeast Vermont between 4AM and 5AM. With this area of snow you can expect winds to increase into the 5 - 15MPH range with gusts up to 25MPH, and rising temps into the upper teens to low 20'sF. Snowfall accumulations with this band will generally be in the 1 inch range, although where heavier snow falls isolated areas could see 2 inches, especially with a good fluff factor of the snow. Precipitation ends later this morning, and snow, sleet, and freezing rain showers are expected throughout the afternoon. By late Tuesday afternoon, and night portions of the area will see all rain, as more widespread precipitation moves in, and the cold front begins to move faster. Across Northeast Vermont, and the Northern St. Lawrence Valley, there is some concern for a prolonged period of freezing precipitation, especially freezing rain. So that will have to be watched closely today. Either way the precipitation amounts wont be extreme. All precipitation will change back to snow on Wednesday as the cold front moves across the area, and winds change to the north. It looks like the potential for a rapid freeze up may occur once again on Wednesday, this will continue to be monitored. Total snow accumulations by late Wednesday night will range from 1-3 inches across the region with 3-6 inches possible across the Northern St. Lawrence Valley. Total Ice accumulations by Wednesday Night will range from pockets of very light ice accumulation area wide, with more significant ice accumulations of a tenth of an inch or possibly a bit more across the Northern St. Lawrence Valley, and Northeastern Vermont. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for Northeastern Vermont later today.

STORM NUMBER 2
     The next system may effect the region on Thursday into Friday as a storm system forms over the Southeast United States and tracks up the coast. Models are in some agreement that a storm will form and move up the coast, with most precipitation staying out of our region with some light snows possible across Southeastern Vermont. Right now this storm is not of much concern, although conditions will be monitored, because if the storm is able to phase with another piece of energy close by over the great lakes then it could become more significant for our area. Updated maps for the above situation are posted below. Stay tuned!


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