Flash Freeze Potential Tonight; Snow, Snow and Maybe More Snow!

Local Update...
   Temperatures May Drop Rapidly Overnight Resulting In Flash Freeze Conditions; A Stormy Pattern Setting Up...

     JRWeather has issued a Flood Advisory for Western Vermont, and Northern New York. Please see previous post for details.

     Well its looking to get a tad busy over the next couple days, but lets start with tonight first. Strong winds have been occurring yesterday, and today. Pre-frontal precipitation has already moved through with another batch of precipitation currently over New York with the actually cold front. Winds have been from the South/ Southwest all day and gusting in excess of 40MPH. Infact with the actual front coming into Massena, NY they had a measured wind gust of 52MPH. Now as winds begin shifting along and behind the front, strong northwest winds will usher in much colder air. By tonight lows are expected to be in the 20F - 30F range, with the coldest temps in the higher elevations, and warmer temps along the shore of Lake Champlain. Depending on exactly how fast things are going to cool down, will determine if the wet roads from today's rain will flash freeze or not. I do want to urge though this will not be like last Wednesday where the temperatures dropped 16 - 18 degrees in 15-30 minutes. So the freeze up wont be as rapid. But if you are out driving tonight, use caution as temperatures dropping quickly will result in areas of black ice.

     The next situation to talk about will be the stormy pattern we APPEAR to be heading in. The flow across the country is going to turn zonal, which means pieces of energy will be ejected across the country rather fast, and these patterns can tend to be stormy, with numerous small - moderate storms. On occasion this patter can produce a large winter storm...ON OCCASION. Just thought id stress that. This time around with a zonal flow pattern it does look like we could see a couple moderate storms, to perhaps a significant storm. The first one will be Tuesday night, into Wednesday Afternoon, with a widespread 2-5 inches of snow. The next system will be in the Thursday Night into Friday Night time frame with a widespread 4-8 inches of snow, with the potential of another ice storm, across southern areas. The GFS model indicates 6-12 inches of snow possible with this storm. I however feel that is highly unlikely, but it will be monitored. Then once again another storm shows up on the models for the Saturday-Sunday time frame, with yet another one around Christmas. This last couple storms though are still too far out to start getting into any detail, but it does look like we could be heading into a stormy pattern. Stay tuned to JRWeather for further updates!