Potential Flooding, and Strong Winds For Wednesday

Local Update...
   A Little Bit Of Everything For Wednesday; JRWeather Flood Watch In Effect Until 1AM Thursday Morning; JRWeather Wind Advisory In Effect From 7AM This Morning, Until 7PM This Evening...

JRWeather FLOOD WATCH
     JRWeather Continues The Flood Watch For Franklin, Orleans, Essex, Chittenden, Lamoille, Caledonia, Addison, Washington, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, and Windham Counties in Vermont, and All of Northern New York Until 1AM Thursday Morning.

     Significant Rainfall, and Snowmelt today could result in the potential of Flooding later today into early Thursday morning, before colder air stops runoff. Across Northern Vermont, and Northern New York the potential exists for Ice Jam Flooding, further South non-ice jam related flooding could occur.

     Temperatures in the Mid 40'sF to near 50F combined with the potential of a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain today, will likely result in rapid rises on area rivers. Across Northern Vermont, where Ice remains in Place on area rivers, the threat will exist for ice jam flooding. Across Central, and Southern Vermont, where heavy rains fell this past weekend, the additional rain may push area rivers, creeks, and streams out of there banks.

     The rivers that are at a high risk of Ice Jam flooding right now are the Missisquoi River in Orleans, and Franklin Counties in Vermont. The Lamoille River in Lamoille, and Franklin Counties in Vermont, The Great Chazy river in Clinton County, New York, and the Ausable River, including the East Branch in Essex and Clinton Counties in New York.

     The rivers that are at high risk for non-ice jam related flooding, across Central and Southern Vermont include but are not limited to the Otter Creek, in Rutland, and Addison Counties, the Williams River, in Windham County, and The Batten Kill, in Bennington County.

     A Flood watch is issued when there is the potential for flooding to occur, but not imminent. If you experience rapidly rising water, or nearby flooding, then move immediately to higher ground. Stay tuned for further updates.


JRWeather WIND ADVISORY
     JRWeather Has Issued A Wind Advisory For Grand Isle, Franklin, Orleans, Chittenden, Lamoille, Addison, Washington, Rutland, and Bennington Counties in Vermont and All of Northern Northern New York From 7AM This Morning Until 7PM Tonight.

     A low pressure system moving through the great lakes region, and its associated cold front, will be responsible for bringing strong winds to the region today. Winds will increase from the South-Southwest during the early morning hours. Sustained winds will be in the 25-35MPH range with gusts up to 50MPH, throughout the day. Winds will shift to the Northwest later in the day, and continue to gust up to 50MPH into the late evening.

     A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 30-39MPH or gusts up to 54MPH are expected. It is recommended to secure any loose object that will have the potential to be blown around. Stay tuned for further updates.


DISCUSSION
     I was getting a little too much into the flood threat, and overlooked the Wind threat last night, and today. After the National Weather Service caught my attention with a Wind Advisory, I took a look at the potential winds, and realized I had better issue a Wind Advisory. I feel that strong winds though, will be seen across a bit larger portion of the area then the National Weather Service though. So I have issued a Wind Advisory for all of Northern New York, All of Western Vermont, and the Western Slopes of the Green Mountains. Winds should increase into the 25-35MPH range with gusts up to 50MPH, with an occasional gust to 55MPH directly along, and behind the cold frontal passage. With sustained winds being so close to the 40MPH threshold for a Warning, and close to my 55MPH Wind gust threshold for a Warning I was debating on whether or not to issue a High Wind Warning. At this time, I feel that a Wind Advisory should do well, as widespread Warning criteria winds, will not occur. The situation will continue to be monitored closely though.

     The Flood Watch remains, although less rain is expected. Instead of a half to one inch of precipitation expected it now looks as though a quarter, to three quarters of an inch is expected. The quarter inch amounts are expected to be across the Northern area, which may not be enough to cause significant rises for Ice Jam flooding, however with warm temperatures, enough snowmelt may combine with rainfall totals to raise rivers enough for the ice to jam up, and produce flooding. So I left the entire area under a flood watch.

     Of some lesser concern will be the potential of pockets of Freezing rain across the sheltered valleys of Eastern Vermont, and the extreme Northern St. Lawrence Valley of New York. These pockets of freezing rain should change over to all rain by 8AM.



CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE!!